Elettra Tirino (Senior Researcher G.E.O. Environment)
Abstract
COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, highlighted the transformative role of technology in addressing climate change, featuring discussions on Early Warning Systems, industrial decarbonization, and digital innovation. However, significant challenges hinder progress, including resource inequalities, fragmented policies, and resistance from carbon-dependent nations.
- Introduction
In an era characterized by rapid technological advancement, innovation, and digital transformation, the global community is harnessing these forces to address climate change, disaster preparedness, and industrial decarbonization. Events such as the Early Warning System Discussion Days, Technology Day and Digitalization Day, held at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, underscore the immense potential of technology to drive progress in areas like early warning, emissions reduction, and climate resilience. These efforts illustrate how cutting-edge tools like artificial intelligence, machine learning, and digital platforms reshape the global response to climate challenges, enabling smarter, faster and more inclusive solutions.
However, this surge of technological innovation also brings significant challenges. While digitalization and industrial transformation can accelerate climate action, they contribute to energy consumption, electronic waste, and inequitable access to resources (SAP, 2024). Moreover, barriers like policy fragmentation, resource limitations, and social inequalities highlight the need for a balanced approach that maximizes the benefits of technology while mitigating its negative impacts.
This analysis deals with the transformative role of technology, innovation, and digitalization discussed at COP29 in Azerbaijan, emphasizing both their groundbreaking potential and the critical need for equitable, sustainable governance to address their inherent risks. While the events provided a platform for dialogue and showcased innovative solutions, the absence of definitive agreements underscore the challenges of multilateral negotiations, where divergent national interests, economic constraints, and geopolitical complexities often hinder progress.
- The Early Warning System Discussion Days
The Early Warning System Discussion Days, held on November 13th and 16th, underscored the transformative potential of technology in advancing life-saving early warning initiatives. Hosted against the backdrop of COP29, the discussions highlighted the critical role of technological innovation in mitigating the escalating impacts of extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. The emphasis was placed on scaling up early warning systems by integrating advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and enhanced global forecast systems, with local-level actions to ensure preparedness and resilience. The UN Secretary General’s Early Warning for All (EW4All) initiative, which aims to provide universal protection against hazardous weather, water, and climate events by 2027 (WMO, 2022), has already shown promise. Multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) have achieved the highest global coverage levels since 2015, demonstrating their capacity to save lives and reduce economic losses. Just 24 hours’ warning of an impending disaster can reduce potential damage by up to 30 percent. Furthermore, such systems offer a tenfold return on investment, providing that they are not only a humanitarian necessity but also an economic imperative (WMO, 2024).
Despite these advancements, disparities remain stark. Countries with less comprehensive MHEWS face disaster-related mortality ratios six times higher than those with robust systems, and 70 percent of all deaths from climate-related disasters in the past five decades occurred in the world’s 46 poorest nations (WMO, 2024). Moreover, the discussions also shed light on the growing threat of extreme heat, which now poses a significant global health risk. Heat health warning systems, if scaled globally, could save an estimated 98.000 lives annually in just 57 countries (WMO, 2024).
To address these challenges, technology has emerged as a cornerstone of progress. Innovations such as mobile networks, artificial intelligence, and machine learning enhance data collection, forecasting, and warning dissemination, bridging gaps between global resources and local action. Partnerships with organizations like GSMA have ensured mobile operators’ involvement in delivering early warnings, while National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) continue to improve data quality and observing networks. These efforts, combined with community-level resilience building, highlight how early warning systems are not only tools for protection but also pathways to sustainable development and equity (World Economic Forum, 2023).
1.1.The Executive Action Plan 2023-2027
The Executive Action Plan for Early Warning Systems unveiled at COP27, is a cornerstone of global efforts to ensure every person is protected from climate-related hazards by 2027. The plan highlights the vital role of COPs as convening platforms for advancing climate adaptation and fostering collaboration among nations, organizations, and stakeholders (WMO, 2024).
The plan’s approach centers on four pillars: disaster risk knowledge, observation and forecasting capabilities, dissemination and communication of warnings, and preparedness and response. These pillars work in tandem to ensure that early warnings are not only scientifically robust but also actionable and inclusive (WMO, 2023). The system’s functionality relies on collaboration among international bodies, such as the WMO, UNDRR, and NMHSs, alongside private sector partners like GSMA and financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund. Together, these entities streamline efforts to integrate digital technologies and localized community-based responses (WMO, 2024).
2. The Technology Day
The Technology Day event series, initially launched by the UNFCCC Technology Executive Committee (TEC) in 2020 and 2021, returns in 2024 with a renewed focus on integrating hard-to-abate industries into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Co-organized by TEC and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), this year’s event took place in Baku, Azerbaijan, during COP29, highlighting the steel and cement industries as key sectors for immediate decarbonization efforts (TT: CLEAR, 2024).
Recognizing the industrial sector’s responsibility for 34% of global GHG emissions—primarily from steel, cement, and chemicals, which contribute around 70% of industry emissions (UNFCCC, 2024) – at COP29, policymakers and industry leaders emphasized the critical role of technology and policy innovation in reducing emissions from these energy-intensive sectors. The starting point of the discussion was TEC’s latest policy brief which provides actionable guidance to integrate hard-to-abate industries into national climate targets, in alignment with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. Thus, the objectives of the meetings were to showcase transformative solutions like green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS), facilitate discussions on effective policies, and promote collaborative efforts among stakeholders to drive rapid, scalable emissions reductions (UNCC & UNIDO, 2024).
A second session, planned for 2025, will address the chemical and petrochemical industries, building on the momentum generated this year.
2.1.Integrating Hard-to-Abate Industries in the Process of Preparing and Implementing NDCs
In its latest policy brief, TEC proposes several strategic policy options to achieve substantial emissions reduction in hard-to-abate industries (HAIs). First of all, the deployment of zero- and low-emission technologies offers significant opportunities, including key strategies such as the electrification of industrial processes and energy efficiency improvements. Indeed, transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable electricity or low-GHG energy carriers alongside the optimization of industrial processes, the upgrade of equipment, and the implementation of advanced energy management systems can significantly enable energy decarbonization in sectors like steel and cement (World Economic Forum, 2023). Another policy proposed deals with material efficiency which includes eco-design and lifecycle optimization, the promotion of the durability of materials, the minimization of GHG-intensive materials, and circular economy strategies. The last one regards the decarbonization of production processes in which the R&D and commercialization of emerging technologies play a critical role (World Bank, 2023).
To effectively decarbonize HAI and drive progress toward global climate goals, during the negotiations, a set of comprehensive and context-specific policy approaches have been identified as essential. Economic and regulatory incentives, such as carbon pricing mechanisms, streamlined licensing for technologies, sustainable forest management, and circular economy policies, provide economic signals that encourage emissions reduction and reduce financial barriers to adopting low-carbon solutions (UNCC & UNIDO, 2024). Policy incentives are also crucial in the context of extensive electrification of HAI. Secondly, national governments should prioritize funding for RD&D in decarbonization technologies and incentivize private-sector innovation. Collaborative research between academia, industry, and government is pivotal to advancing emerging technologies. Governments are also called to create significant demand for low-carbon products by implementing preferential purchasing policies, thus stimulating economies of scale for new technologies, in the context of green public procurement. To accelerate the decarbonization of hard-to-abate industries (HAI) and advance progress toward net-zero emissions, countries and international organizations must adopt strategic, collaborative approaches. National governments should integrate HAI into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) while developing detailed decarbonization roadmaps with clear roles and responsibilities. These roadmaps should encompass policies for zero- and low-emission technologies, economic incentives, electrification, green public procurement, and capacity building, ensuring just transitions for workers and communities (UNCC & UNIDO, 2024). Investment plans should leverage green bonds, blended finance, and international cooperation to mobilize resources and scale innovative solutions. International development organizations can enhance global efforts by fostering market linkages, supporting cross-border green energy trade, harmonizing emissions and life-cycle assessment standards, and facilitating peer-to-peer knowledge exchange. Strengthening Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems and promoting North-South and South-South cooperation is critical to ensuring transparency and equity in industrial decarbonization efforts. These actions collectively contribute to aligning industrial practices with the Paris Agreement’s goals and fostering a resilient, low-carbon global economy.
However, decarbonizing HAI faces several significant implementation barriers that must be addressed. For instance, many decarbonization technologies are in their early development stages – such as hydrogen-based systems – or even mature technologies are limited by resource availability – like carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and the availability of natural gas or hydrogen (TT: CLEAR, 2024). Additionally, limited financial mechanisms, insufficient incentives, and delays in the development and prioritization of infrastructure often hinder the transition to low-carbon technologies, further exacerbating challenges for industries to invest in decarbonization. Furthermore, economic risks, such as fluctuations in the cost of carbon credits, renewable energy, and raw materials, undermine the economic feasibility of decarbonization projections. Additionally, industries exposed to international trade – like steel and chemicals – may face challenges in maintaining competitiveness if the costs of decarbonization rise, potentially leading to market share losses or relocation of industries to regions with less stringent emissions regulations. Another implementation barrier deals with the fragmentation of policies across regions (UNFCCC, 2024). Diverging regulatory frameworks alongside the absence of a global robust Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system limits the ability to track emissions accurately, leading to gaps in implementation and accountability further hampering the evaluation of mitigation effectiveness, and undermining confidence in climate actions. Public trust in climate actions is undermined also by the transition to a low-carbon economy, which can disproportionately impact communities that rely heavily on carbon-intensive industries, leading to job losses and economic hardship. Policies must ensure that the benefits of the transition are equitably distributed
3. The first-ever Digitalization Day
On November 18th, 2023, COP29 inaugurated its first-ever Digitalization Day, underscoring the transformative role of digital technologies in climate action. Leaders from over 90 governments and 1.000 organizations endorse the COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action, committing to leverage technology for climate mitigation and adaptation while addressing the sector’s environmental footprint.
This milestone highlighted the dual nature of digital technologies: as powerful tools for climate monitoring, early warning systems, and energy optimization, but also as significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and e-waste. Discussions emphasized the urgency of addressing these challenges through robust accountability, green standards, and circular economy practices. Initiatives like the International Telecommunication Union’s (ITU) Green Digital Action platform have been pivotal since their COP28 launch, fostering global partnerships to drive sustainable digital innovation (SAMENA, 2023). While Al and big data promise to optimize energy efficiency, concerns about their energy-intensive infrastructure.
The final Declaration calls for sector-wide collaboration to reduce emissions, promote inclusive access, and advance sustainable practices, solidifying digitalization as a cornerstone of global climate resilience efforts.
3.1. COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action
The COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action envisions a world where digital technologies play a pivotal role in combating climate change while addressing the environmental footprint of the digital sector itself. Rooted in the goals of the Paris Agreement, the declaration recognizes the dual role of digital innovation as both a transformative force for climate action and a sector requiring sustainable governance.
Digital technologies are highlighted as essential tools for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing climate resilience, and improving preparedness for climate-related disasters. These technologies can transform energy grids, refine climate modeling, and enable cleaner energy systems (Green Digital Action, 2024). Yet, the declaration also confronts the challenges posed by digitalization, such as the significant energy demands of data centers and artificial intelligence, the carbon footprint of device production, and the growing problem of electric waste. It calls for sustainable practices to minimize these impacts, including cleaner energy use, recycling, and extending the lifespan of digital devices.
Recognizing the disparities in global digital access, the declaration emphasizes inclusivity as a cornerstone of this approach. Bridging the digital divide – particularly in developing countries and among vulnerable populations – is seen as crucial to ensuring a fair transition. Capacity-building efforts aim to enhance digital literacy and foster local innovation, enabling communities worldwide to participate in and benefit from sustainable digital development.
Collaboration is championed as a vital driver of success, with a commitment to partnerships across sectors and regions. Government, private industry, academia, and civil society are encouraged to work together to scale green digital solutions, share best practices, and ensure that technology benefits all (Green Digital Action, 2024). These efforts include promoting consumer awareness of digital use and advancing policies that balance the protection of intellectual property with the need for open access to climate-critical technologies.
An implementation framework underlines the need for integrating digital sustainability into national climate policies, guided by rigorous data and science-based methods. By embedding digital tools into climate strategies such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCS), countries can align their technological ambitions with their environmental commitments.
4. Conclusion
The discussions and events at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, highlighted a shared recognition of the transformative role of technology, innovation, and digitalization in addressing the urgent challenges posed by climate change. From enhancing early warning systems to decarbonizing hard-to-abate industries and leveraging digital technologies for climate action, the sessions underscored the potential of cutting-edge tools to drive climate resilience, economic transformation, and sustainable development. collaboration frameworks like the UN Secretary-General’s Early Warning for All initiative and the COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action emphasized the importance of partnerships, inclusive access, and policy alignment in achieving global climate goals.
Despite the evident alignment on the potential of these strategies, COP29 ultimately fell short of translating discussions into concrete actions or binding commitments. This lack of definitive outcomes reflects underlying geopolitical and economic tensions, particularly the hesitance of oil- and carbon-dependent nations, including Azerbaijan, to embrace a rapid transition toward renewable energy. This reluctance is compounded by concerns over maintaining economic stability and market competitiveness, especially in regions where fossil fuels remain economic mainstays.
The resistance to embracing viable, economically, and environmentally sustainable alternatives to carbon and oil underscores a broader challenge in global climate negotiations. While technology offers pathways to transformative change, its implementation requires political will, equitable resource allocation, and governance mechanisms that bridge the gap between ambition and action. Without addressing these barriers, discussions at forums like COP29 risk becoming mere exercises in ambition, delaying the decisive action required to tackle the global climate crisis effectively.
Bibliography
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