How Spain’s Snap Election Could Shift the Balance of Power in Europe

Translated by. Chiara Lamedica

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called an early election for November 29, bringing forward the vote that was originally scheduled for summer 2027.

The decision follows weeks of protests across Spain calling for greater protection and guarantees in response to the housing crisis. The protests began last month after an 87-year-old woman was evicted from her home in Madrid following a sharp rent increase.

Last Friday, Sánchez’s left-wing coalition failed to pass an emergency bill aimed at addressing the issue. The prime minister’s position has also been weakened by numerous corruption investigations carried out in recent months, involving former government officials and even his wife and brother.

Opposition parties have welcomed the early election: the leader of the People’s Party (conservatives), Alberto Núñez Feijóo, said that Spain would “finally say what it thinks,” while the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox party, Santiago Abascal, said he was “pleased” by the announcement.

Meanwhile, members of Sánchez’s government and regional politicians say they are confident they can be re-elected and that the prime minister would have managed to regain ground.

Most polls suggest that the conservatives could emerge as the most-voted party in the next election, but they are expected to need Vox’s support to form a government.

A defeat for Pedro Sánchez in Spain’s early election could destabilize the EU, putting the Socialists and Democrats on the defensive in Brussels.

Sánchez is currently the only socialist-leaning leader at the helm of a major EU country and, in recent years, has represented a centre-left counterweight to decisions made by a Council largely dominated by the centre-right. Spanish MEPs make up the largest national delegation within the S&D (Socialists and Democrats) group in the European Parliament.

Since the 2024 European elections shifted the Parliament to the right, the EPP (European People’s Party) has passed some legislation together with far-right groups. Socialists have increasingly less representation in national governments and fewer commissioners of their own, fueling repeated tensions and attempts to mend the alliance. With Sánchez’s departure from the political scene, the remaining centre-left leaders would be Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Malta’s Robert Abela, while newly elected Magdalena Andersson is working to form a government in Sweden.

The Spanish election will kick off a year of crucial votes in major EU countries, including Italy, Poland and France, where the far-right party “Rassemblement National” is leading the polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Far-right forces in Brussels are putting pressure on the EPP to lift its ban on cooperating with them and break its traditional ties with the Socialist group.

The European Commission, led by President Ursula von der Leyen, currently relies on a parliamentary majority made up of the EPP (centre-right), Renew Europe (centre) and S&D (centre-left). The Greens/EFA also broadly support the Commission, although they are not part of the coalition agreement.

These centrist forces have traditionally formed the political backbone of European integration. However, the rise of far-left and far-right parties could prevent them from securing a majority in the next European Parliament.

Critics argue that the Commission’s current majority is already showing signs of strain, with the EPP regularly forming alternative majorities with right-wing MEPs on issues such as deforestation, corporate sustainability and migration.

The elections could also affect negotiations over the EU’s next seven-year budget, which Brussels intends to finalize by the end of the year. This issue was already covered in a previous article, which you can find here.

Without a prominent prime minister like Sánchez to keep the S&D group in check, von der Leyen would face even greater pressure to make further concessions to more divergent MEPs. Moreover, the Spanish prime minister has represented an outspoken voice on issues such as immigration, Israel, U.S. President Donald Trump, and defence spending.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2026