Translated by Silvia Toro
On May 18th 2025 early legislative elections took place in Portugal: the result marked the end of bipolarity that had characterized Portugal politics from 1974 to the present day.
The end of the dictatorship and the Portugal's bipolarity
In 1974, the dictatorial regime in Portugal came to an end and the democratic transition, which led to the acquisition of new freedoms and new political parties, other then a progressive decolonization of African colonies.
The Democratic Constitution then became law in 1974 and the Portuguese government experienced an alternation of socialist and social democratic governments. This period, which lasted until the early 2000s, was a moment of modernization and growth for Portugal. However, following the 2008 crisis, the country entered a period of austerity, leading the fall of the socialist government of José Sócrates in 2011.
Subsequently, the center-right party took the lead and only in 2015 did the center left party regain power, under the leadership of António Costa.
In the following years, the government of António Costa managed to end the austerity policies and spur the country’s growth. This lasted until the end of 2021, when early elections were called due to struggles in approving the 2022 budget law: Once again, Costa obtained an absolute majority.
However, frequent ministerial and secretarial resignations, as well as issues relating to healthcare, education, justice, and scandals concerning the management of public funds and public appointments undermined this parliamentary stability.
More specifically, new early elections were called in November 2023 because of a judicial scandal that caused a crisis of confidence.
The so-called "Operation Influencer" was a corruption investigation involving Costa's associates and, although he was not formally charged, his name is mentioned in the wiretap transcripts.
In March 2024, the Democratic Alliance, a center-right coalition led by Luís Montenegro, won the election. This time, it was not an absolute majority.
The elections in May 2025
Held on May 18, 2025, these elections are the result of the crisis of the Montenegro government, caused by the "Caso Spinumviva" scandal, which exposed alleged conflicts of interest between a consulting firm connected to the prime minister's family and public concessions.
In particular, parliament's rejection of the no-confidence motion led to the resignation of the government and the Assembly’s dissolution.
These elections not only mark the end of bipolarity within Portuguese politics, but above all they also align with a strong trend in the European landscape: the rise of far-right parties.
To specify further, election results mark the final decline of the Socialist Party. After gaining only 23.4% of the vote and 58 seats, the party leader decided to resign in the face of such a resounding defeat.
On the other hand, the center-right coalition led by Montenegro won 32.1% of the votes, gaining 89 seats and thus becoming the first party. However, it did not achieve an absolute majority.
Finally, the far-right party Chega, led by Andre Ventura, achieved 22.6% of the votes and 58 seats, capitalizing on popular discontent over issues such as immigration, crime and the perceived inefficiency of welfare benefits. The party also obtained significant results in traditionally left-wing regions, like Alentejo, where, in the Beja district, it won 27% of the votes.
Additionally, Ventura in under investigation for alleged discriminatory statements against the Roma community during the election campaign, which has raised concerns about hate speech and discrimination.
To sum it up, these elections marked the end of the traditional bipartisanship in Portugal, with the rise of alternative political forces and an increasing voters polarization.
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