Lebanon: The Story of a Society Divided by War

Translated by. Chiara Lamedica

The prolonged conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has engulfed Lebanon at a time of acute political and economic fragility. Beyond the toll of physical destruction and human casualties, sociological surveys conducted on the ground provide crucial insight into how the Lebanese population is experiencing the hostilities and what future it envisions for the country. Data collected by international polling organizations such as Arab Barometer and Gallup, alongside prominent local surveys, including one conducted by Information International and published by the television network Al Jadeed and L'Orient-Le Jour, paint a complex social landscape. On the one hand, public frustration with Lebanon's involvement in regional conflicts is growing. On the other, the findings reveal a common thread that best captures contemporary Lebanese society: a deeply divided nation, where sectarian and identity-based cleavages continue to shape virtually every political and social decision.

Growing Fatigue with Regional Conflicts and the Economic Crisis

Following the devastating socio-economic crisis that has plagued Lebanon since 2019—and even before the latest confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanese citizens consistently ranked economic recovery, financial stability, and institutional reform above regional geopolitical dynamics. Surveys conducted by Arab Barometer and the Washington Institute showed clear public opposition to Lebanon's direct involvement in the conflict, with between 53% and more than 70% of respondents expressing their rejection, depending on the survey methodology and the timing of the polls.

According to Arab Barometer, despite widespread perceptions of corruption—identified by respondents as one of the country's most pressing challenges—public confidence in state institutions such as Parliament and the official government has increased compared with previous years. In contrast, non-state actors, including Hezbollah, have experienced a decline in public support, reflecting a gradual shift in attitudes toward organizations operating outside the state's institutional framework.

State Monopoly on Arms and the Disarmament of Militias

One of the most significant developments emerging from recent surveys concerns the issue of national security. The Gallup World Poll found that approximately 79% of Lebanon's residents believe the Lebanese Armed Forces should be the country's only legal armed force. More recent findings from a survey conducted by Information International between late April and early May, based on a sample of 2,000 respondents and published by Al Jadeed, show that 58% of those surveyed support the disarmament of non-state armed groups and the establishment of the state's exclusive monopoly over the use of force. At the same time, the figures reveal a stark sectarian divide. Support for Hezbollah's disarmament exceeds 85% among Maronite Christians, Greek Orthodox Christians, and Druze respondents, and reaches 52% among Sunnis. By contrast, 88% of the Shiite community opposes the disarmament of Hezbollah. Even before the latest conflict, Lebanese society was deeply divided over the Palestinian issue, which returned to the forefront of international attention following Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. According to the 2025 Gallup World Poll, 50% of Lebanese respondents supported providing political and economic assistance to the Palestinians. However, that figure fell to 31% when the proposed economic assistance also included Palestinian refugees living in Lebanon. Support for military involvement was considerably lower. Only 14% of respondents backed providing military assistance to the Palestinians, while just 10% supported the prospect of direct military confrontation between Lebanon and Israel.

Peace Negotiations, Normalization, and Perceptions of Threats

The Information International survey found that approximately 49% of Lebanese respondents now support opening negotiations or reaching a peace agreement to end the state of war with Israel. Compared with historical polling data, this marks a significant shift in public opinion. At the same time, respondents draw a clear distinction between pursuing a negotiated peace and formally normalizing diplomatic or cultural relations with Israel. While many Lebanese favor negotiations aimed at ending the conflict, 59% of those surveyed and an overwhelming majority of both Sunni and Shiite Muslims remain opposed to normalization with Israel. Moreover, findings from the Arab Opinion Index indicate that more than 90% of respondents continue to hold a negative view of Israel's military actions, underscoring the persistence of deep-seated hostility despite growing support for a negotiated end to the conflict.

Conclusions and final considerations

Assessing public opinion in a country like Lebanon during a period of military escalation and sustained bombardment inevitably presents significant methodological challenges. Physical access to high-risk areas—including southern Lebanon, parts of the Beqaa Valley, and Beirut's southern suburbs—is often severely restricted. Gallup itself acknowledged that interviewers were unable to reach approximately 10% of the population living in heavily militarized strongholds, introducing a potential source of sampling bias. Nevertheless, the stratified and proportionally representative sampling methods employed by Arab Barometer, Gallup, and Information International provide a valuable framework for understanding Lebanon's deeply sectarian political landscape. These surveys offer rare insight into the perspectives of those who are directly experiencing the consequences of the country's recurring crises and conflicts.

Overall, the findings reveal a population deeply dissatisfied with the current state of the country. Lebanon continues to grapple with a severe economic crisis while remaining entangled in a succession of regional conflicts that, for many citizens, have come to resemble a single, uninterrupted cycle of violence punctuated only by brief pauses between military confrontations. With the notable exception of much of the Shiite community, public attitudes toward Hezbollah have become increasingly critical. This shift reflects not only the organization's perceived role in the political controversies that followed the 2020 Beirut port explosion but also growing frustration with its uncompromising stance toward Israel. An increasing number of Lebanese now view Hezbollah's policies as having contributed to the country's latest confrontation with Israel. The country's internal divisions remain profound. Rebuilding national unity, strengthening state sovereignty, and restoring public trust will therefore remain formidable challenges, shaped by the interaction of external pressures and a deeply polarized social fabric.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2026