Translated by Aurora Forlivesi
East Asia is at the center of a tense phase directly involving China, Japan, and Taiwan. The crisis, triggered by explicit statements from the Japanese government, is forcing regional actors to recalibrate their defense strategies and is calling into question the traditional “strategic ambiguity” that has long dominated the Taiwan issue.
The Japanese Spark and the Strategic Shift
The catalyst for this recent escalation was Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who in early November 2025, responding to a parliamentary question, took a firm stance: she stated that a potential naval blockade or Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute an “existential threat” to Japan. This formulation is rooted in the 2015 legislation promoted by then-Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, which amended Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. It introduces the concept of “collective self-defense,” under which Tokyo could authorize the deployment of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) if a foreign country closely connected to Japan were attacked, posing a clear danger to the nation, thereby allowing Japan to intervene in its ally’s defense.
Geographical proximity makes this threat tangible: the Okinawa islands are very close to Taiwan, and Japan’s economic dependence on freedom of navigation through the Taiwan Strait is crucial.
Beijing’s Response
Beijing’s reaction to Takaichi’s statements was immediate: China, which claims Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, regarded the remarks as undue interference in its internal affairs and a direct military threat, formally demanding that the statements be retracted.
In addition to the diplomatic protest, China implemented economic coercion measures, a strategy it has used in previous disputes. Beijing halted imports of Japanese seafood and advised its citizens against traveling to Japan, triggering a wave of cancellations that is straining the Japanese tourism sector. According to economist Takahide Kiuchi, this could result in an economic loss of approximately $14.23 billion, reducing the national GDP by 0.36%.
This intersects with a strong domestic propaganda campaign that fuels nationalist and anti-Japanese sentiment, often drawing on memories of the Japanese occupation during World War II. China’s objective is twofold: to isolate Taiwan internationally and to prepare its domestic population for a “new phase of pressure” against the island.
The Trump Factor
The U.S.-Japan alliance is also under scrutiny. Japan’s increased assertiveness reflects concerns about the United States’ reliability. Despite Takaichi having met with Trump, Japan is alarmed by his subsequent handshake with Xi Jinping and his references to a potential “G2” (U.S.-China). This rhetoric suggests that Trump might be willing to negotiate on the priorities of allies, raising concerns in Tokyo. Highlighting these worries, Trump did not mention Taiwan in his post about the phone call with Xi Jinping.
Taiwan, for its part, is investing heavily in its defense. President Lai Ching-te has pledged to spend NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) on arms over eight years, the largest special defense budget in over 30 years. The primary goal is to achieve “high combat readiness” by 2027—the year in which Chinese leader Xi Jinping is reportedly expected to have ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be capable of seizing Taiwan by force. A significant portion of the funds will be used to purchase weapons from the United States, including precision artillery, anti-tank missiles, and drones.
Chinese Military Modernization
In parallel, according to an analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the PLA is expanding and modernizing its capabilities, strategically focusing on the region. The People’s Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAA) maintains an operational focus on preparing for a potential invasion of Taiwan, concentrating its exercises near priority theaters such as China and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, the Navy (PLAN) has assumed a central role in joint exercises since 2021, surpassing the PLAA, and is expanding its operational reach well beyond Chinese shores, into regions such as the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.
In conclusion, the current crisis between China and Japan, though sparked by a diplomatic dispute, is closely linked to China’s ambition to alter the status quo regarding Taiwan and reflects a broader power dynamic in which Japan is determined to strengthen regional deterrence.