Introduction:
Pakistan is currently facing significant economic instability, political unrest, deteriorating relations with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, increased terrorism, and a recent military escalation at the Iranian border. The flaws in Pakistan's political system, heavily influenced by the military, have exacerbated the situation. The country is experiencing political unrest, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan and former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi in jail. The recent elections have deepened the uncertainty, as the elected government of Shehbaz Sharif is accused of rigging and being backed by the military establishment, undermining its credibility and ability to address separatist movements in Balochistan and conflicts at the Durand Line.
Attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has ideological ties with the Taliban government in Kabul, have surged within Pakistan, doubling since 2021. Additionally, there was an escalation of violence from Iran when an unplanned attack on Pakistani territory was launched to pursue Jaish al-Adl. This led to a retaliatory response from Pakistan, further complicating the situation on the Middle Eastern front.
Pakistan on many attributed fronts
Pakistan has been embroiled in political uncertainty since the removal of former Premier Imran Khan in April 2022. Since then Pakistan has fallen into more political uncertainty as the coalition government faced low confidence for the market investment, and rising imports, forcing it to seek help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to declining foreign reserves. This move, which included seeking $3 billion in exchange for the unpopular austerity measures, proved to be fatal for Pakistan economy. The austerity measures, although necessary, further tarnished the political image of coalition Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, especially since former Premier Imran Khan had managed the IMF situation more favorably in the eyes of the public despite rising costs during his tenure. Despite successfully securing IMF loans, Prime Minister Sharif's austerity measures worsened the already turbulent economic situation, lacking a clear policy on hot to deal with the crisis. Moreover, the situation was exacerbated by increasing attacks from militant groups, particularly Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), stretching resources and security forces thin.
To worsen the situation of the coalition government was the TTP with their escalating attacks on the Pakistani territory. The operatives started major security assets within Pakistan where law enforcement was left in perils with underequipped and underfunded police personnel. The worsening security situation, marked by attacks on the mosque and security compound, has been compounded by the sowing alliance with other militant groups in Balochistan to further threaten and destabilize the national security of Pakistan. TTP attacks have also inspired other radical militant groups such as the Tehreek-e-Jihad (TJP) to carry out attacks, like the one on Dera Ismail Khan police station, marking how radical Islamism is deteriorating the security situation of Pakistan.
In Pakistan’s backyard, insistent requests to the Taliban government in Afghanistan to do more in decimating and not providing sanctuary to the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), have fallen on deaf ears with continued support to the TTP. As the Afghan Taliban and TTP are both ideologically aligned with one another, and Afghan Taliban may not fall for Pakistan’s ‘strategic depth’ policy as they were not able to be controlled by Islamabad in 1996 either. The situation reached a breaking point in September 2023, when TTP militants stormed two military outposts in the remote Chitral region, resulting in the deaths of four soldiers and 12 TTP militants. This was the final straw to make the military run out of patience in Pakistan with the Islamabad, deciding to shut down the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. There were bilateral talks between the two states, but the last attack led to the final saga of these relations. To seed the pressure on the Taliban in Kabul, Pakistan started to decouple the long-staying Afghans in its territory with deportation to even those who were born in Pakistan territory. The deportation of millions of “unregistered foreigners” was condemned by the Afghan Taliban, the UN, and human rights organizations in Pakistan as well. But the deportation of Afghans moved Islamabad and Kabul further away and even the will to fight cordially against certain groups was broken down with the deportation and divisions over the approach to deal with TTP. Relations further deteriorated in February 2024, when the Afghan deputy foreign minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai's commented on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border dispute, especially on the Durand line border, after the deportation of 500,000 Afghans from 1.7 million Afghans and the requirement of passports over the porous border of Afghan-Pakistan. Tensions have escalated significantly only after Pakistan carried airstrikes inside Afghanistan after 7 soldiers died in a North Waziristan suicide bombing by the Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad.
Pakistan and Iran have both a long-standing ethnic conflict in Balochistan, where the Baloch province in Pakistan has been embedded with separatism. To fight separatism both countries have a mutual understanding of striking separatists; but the situations has fueled up after some Baloch separatist factions have pledged allegiance to the TTP. The two groups are coming close with factional allegiance which gives an understanding of how the two are forging close ties with one another. Both have recognized one another efforts and issues such as Baloch separatist suicide training in Afghanistan and Baloch grievances accepted in TTP released propaganda video. Although ideologically both are different as Baloch separatists are more secular and marginalized, as compared to TTP which is religiously-driven conservative Islamist, they both have a common foe which is the “state of Pakistan.” Pakistan is already waging a conflict with Baloch separatism and taking attacks from the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) within the state by attacks on the Pakistan Stock Exchange attack, Karachi University attack, or attack on the Chinese. In January, Balochistan came into more issues when it got hit by Iranian missiles that were targeting Jaish ul-Adl within Pakistan, under and two children were killed. This only ignited a week-long skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan with retaliatory strikes. The two countries' skirmishes were seen as the Middle East Gaza War sprung up front after Iraq and Syria. After a few days, both countries reconciled after the Iranian foreign minister's visit, intending to fight Baloch militants in a coordinated manner, share security intelligence, and reduce the trust deficit.
Conclusion
Pakistan has been entangled on many fronts, and with its current political instability it won’t be able to properly deal with the terrorist elements within the state. The unpopular government may initiate different military campaigns to smear the terrorist but the population would be more focused on the government’s unpopularity as the country is going through the financial crisis. Meanwhile, the military institutional trust is also facing a crisis as the public and public opinion are considerably low with the population questioning their credibility, influence within Pakistan politics, and their past dealings with the Kabul-based Taliban. The police's ability to combat the Taliban would remain low as they’re underfunded and undergunned to deal with the TTP and other terrorist elements which have acquired advanced leftover weapons from the USA and NATO withdrawing forces. Henceforth, the main security institution would remain prone to attacks at a massive scale as evident until they are reformed, trained, and provided with proper armaments to deal with the Taliban and other suchlike elements. Tehreek-e-Taliban will continue to inspire more terrorist organizations which will haunt the security of Pakistan and put the security of Pakistan at stake until they are dealt with adequately. Moreover, for political reasons, Pakistan may expel the remaining Afghan refugees despite condemnation, but will face worker shortages at home and those Afghans who were abroad will not send remittance to Pakistan with their families expelled from Pakistan. Pakistan and Iran's issue is more a misunderstanding, with no stakes at high to fight Iranians, rather it will be solved cordially in a peaceful manner. Both may reach some more security memorandum in tackling militancy within the Balochistan region overall but it is not all calculated as Balochistan is a growing political issue. Many of the odds are against the Pakistan army since the harrowing torture stories are coming within Balochistan. The peace will remain fragile until the state and key playmakers reach a negotiated settlement with the politicians, and militants and start proper development in Balochistan by providing equal rights to ethnic Balochis. Otherwise, the activities of Baloch militants will increase and may alarm the national security of Pakistan.
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