When climate becomes geopolitics

Translated by Martina Alessandrelli 

In the Anthropocene era, a nation’s security is no longer measured only on the basis of its energy resources or military potential. True geopolitical stability lies in the ability to manage climate uncertainty and to protect critical infrastructure from systemic risks. While Italy's strategic vision found in the Mattei Plan a fundamental doctrine for redefining equal partnerships and co-development with the African continent, the key principles of this approach offer a universal framework for understanding. This paradigm can also be successfully applied to complex geographical regions that are crucial to the global balance of power, such as Venezuela.

This South American country represents an emblematic case study in the geopolitics of resources. As the custodian of strategic reserves of hydrocarbons and natural gas that are vital for the diversification of global supplies, Venezuela is simultaneously facing profound environmental vulnerability. Hydrogeological instability, the acceleration of drought cycles and the intensification of extreme weather events in the Caribbean region constantly threaten the operational continuity of extraction assets and the safety of local populations. A further complicating factor is the growing influence of climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Although a natural and recurring phenomenon, El Niño can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns in various parts of South America, contributing, at certain stages, to the worsening of drought conditions in the north of the continent. In the case of Venezuela, this is particularly significant because the availability and distribution of water resources, energy production, agriculture and the functioning of infrastructure can be affected by greater variability in weather conditions. The problem therefore lies not only in the rise in the global average temperature, but in the interaction between climate change and climate variability, which can amplify the vulnerability of already vulnerable areas and infrastructure.

In this sense, El Niño is a particularly telling example of the systemic nature of climate risk. A period characterised by below-average rainfall does not necessarily have consequences limited to the agricultural sector or water availability: it can affect energy production, the navigability of waterways, logistics, food security and, more generally, the ability of the state and businesses to ensure the continuity of essential services. Climate vulnerability thus becomes a multiplier of economic and geopolitical risks. For a country such as Venezuela, which possesses significant energy resources but is also characterised by infrastructure in need of modernisation and significant exposure to extreme weather events, the ability to anticipate the effects of phenomena such as El Niño becomes an integral part of energy security. It is from this perspective that climate forecasting and environmental monitoring take on strategic importance. The observation of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with ENSO, combined with satellite data, weather models and land-based monitoring systems, can enable the development of forecast scenarios useful for investment planning and infrastructure management. Anticipating a possible period of drought means, for example, being able to put measures in place more promptly to manage water resources, adapt industrial planning, protect the most vulnerable infrastructure and strengthen early-warning systems for local communities. Managing El Niño thus serves as a concrete example of how climate resilience can become a tool for preventing industrial, economic and geopolitical risks.

In this context, the reference to the Mattei Plan can take on a further dimension: cooperation with partner countries should not be limited to managing the consequences of crises, but should develop permanent capacities for forecasting, monitoring and adaptation. A resilience-oriented model of cooperation could therefore integrate energy and infrastructure expertise with Earth observation, climatology, water resource management and early warning systems. The value of such collaboration would lie not only in the ability to respond after an extreme event, but above all in the possibility of anticipating it and mitigating its effects. From this perspective, phenomena such as El Niño demonstrate why future energy security cannot be separated from the ability to understand and predict the behaviour of the climate system. In this context, disaster risk reduction ceases to be a purely humanitarian concern and becomes a pillar of industrial security and economic diplomacy.

Today, an industrial presence in emerging markets requires a radical change of approach. It is no longer possible to separate extraction activities and the development of energy infrastructure from the protection of the territories in which they are located. Venezuela, as it embarks on a path of partial economic reopening and the development of its gas and crude oil resources, requires cutting-edge preparedness standards. In practical terms, ensuring security of supply means being able to assess the impact of climate change on coastal stability, pipelines and refineries. Applying the philosophy of the Mattei Plan in this context entails adopting a non-predatory model, where major industrial players do not merely extract resources but actively contribute to the hydrogeological and environmental resilience of the partner country. Ecological sustainability thus becomes the fundamental prerequisite for operational continuity and for mitigating credit and investment risk. Applying the philosophy of the Mattei Plan to the international energy sector means, from this perspective, moving beyond a model based exclusively on access to resources. Cooperation with partner countries should result in a relationship in which the investor also contributes to the region’s capacity to address its own vulnerabilities. This implies investments not only in wells, refineries and energy infrastructure, but also in environmental monitoring systems, land protection, technical training and local capacity to prevent and manage emergencies. It is an approach that also reshapes the very concept of investment. Strengthening a partner country’s resilience means simultaneously protecting local communities and industrial assets. Land protection thus becomes part of economic risk management: a more resilient territory is one in which infrastructure is more likely to continue functioning, supply chains are more likely to remain operational, and investments are more likely to retain their value over time.

For this model to become a reality, however, the principles of resilience must be transformed into genuine operational capability. It is not enough to simply state the importance of prevention: it must be integrated into the processes through which major infrastructure projects are selected, funded and implemented. Every strategic investment should be preceded by a proper ‘vulnerability map’, capable of linking territorial characteristics, climate scenarios, the condition of infrastructure and the economic value of the assets at risk. The question to ask would no longer be merely how much it costs to build infrastructure, but how much it might cost not to make it resilient. This shift in perspective would also have significant financial implications. Banks, insurance companies and institutional investors are increasingly being called upon to assess the physical risks associated with climate change. Infrastructure exposed to extreme events and lacking adequate prevention systems can become a more expensive investment to insure, more difficult to finance and more vulnerable to disruption. Regional resilience therefore also becomes a tool for de-risking investments. Reducing environmental risk means increasing the economic predictability of a project.

Alongside physical infrastructure, another form of infrastructure is emerging, one that is less visible but equally important: data infrastructure. A network of satellites, sensors, weather stations, communication systems and analysis platforms can become a kind of digital infrastructure for energy security. Its role is to continuously monitor the territory and provide the authorities and industrial operators with an up-to-date picture of risk conditions. In a country of Venezuela’s size and geographical complexity, this capability could prove particularly valuable. Remote monitoring would make it possible to extend observation capabilities even to the most remote areas, while data integration would enable the faster identification of potentially dangerous phenomena. The aim would not be to build a system dedicated exclusively to the needs of industry. On the contrary, the same information infrastructure could support civil protection, water resource management, ecosystem conservation, urban planning and the monitoring of agricultural areas. It is precisely this potential for dual use that makes the technology particularly attractive in the context of international cooperation.

One of the key developments in the model is the recognition that industrial security cannot exist without the security of the surrounding communities. An energy facility may be technically secure, but it remains vulnerable if access routes are cut off, if electricity networks collapse, if local communities do not receive information in a timely manner, or if healthcare facilities are unprepared to manage an emergency. Resilience must therefore extend beyond the physical perimeter of the facility to encompass the wider local area. This means, for example, strengthening logistical links, improving emergency communication systems, developing protocols with local authorities and involving local communities in the development of prevention plans. The community should not be regarded merely as the recipient of security measures, but as an integral part of the resilience system.

In this context, Italy possesses expertise that could play a significant role: energy, engineering, space, Earth observation, emergency management, civil protection, scientific research and digital technologies are sectors that can be integrated into a single cooperation proposal. The strength of a potential Italian model would therefore not lie exclusively in the ability to participate in the development of energy resources, but in the possibility of offering a broader technological ecosystem. The concept of a "value chain" could thus be reinterpreted. Not merely an energy value chain comprising exploration, extraction, processing and distribution, but a resilience value chain in which infrastructure, data, research, training and prevention work together. It is in this context that the relationship between industry and foreign policy can become particularly close. International competitiveness no longer depends only on the price or availability of technology, but on the ability to offer comprehensive solutions to the problems faced by partner countries.

The value of such an approach could also extend beyond the bilateral relationship with Caracas. Italy could use the experience gained from a project of this kind as a model that could be replicated in other countries characterised by the simultaneous presence of energy resources, climate vulnerability and a need for infrastructure modernisation. In this sense, Venezuela could become not merely a national case study, but a testing ground for a broader Italian industrial policy in emerging markets. The rationale would be to create partnerships in which energy and technology reinforce one another: access to resources underpins economic cooperation, whilst technology reduces the risks associated with their development. This approach could also help to lend greater credibility to an energy diplomacy focused on diversification, supply chain security and the building of long-term relationships. However, one crucial issue remains: governance. A system of this complexity cannot be entrusted solely to businesses. Institutions are needed that are capable of coordinating data, emergencies, authorisations, infrastructure and environmental policies. Clear rules on data ownership and use, common standards and transparent mechanisms for information sharing are also required. Technological cooperation must be accompanied by institutional cooperation. Without this element, even the most advanced technology risks remaining a collection of isolated tools. The challenge, therefore, lies in building a framework in which the public sector, industry and research play distinct yet complementary roles.

This, ultimately, is the most profound transformation. A country’s international presence is no longer measured only by the amount of capital invested or the volume of trade. It is also measured by its ability to contribute to the stability of the regions with which it builds relationships. A satellite system that enables the prediction of a flood, a digital model that detects ground subsidence, a network of sensors that protects a pipeline, or an early-warning system that allows a community to evacuate before an extreme event strikes are all tools for security, but also tools for cooperation. From this perspective, technology takes on a political function: it builds capacity, reduces vulnerability and fosters trust. For Italy, the challenge lies in transforming this capacity into a coherent international proposal. For Venezuela, the opportunity could lie in combining the development of its natural resources with the modernisation of its risk prevention and management capabilities. The result would be a model in which the value of investment is measured not only by the output generated, but also by the resilience it manages to build. This is probably the direction in which energy cooperation must move over the next decade: from mere access to resources to the construction of resilient ecosystems. Because in a world where climate, energy and geopolitical shocks increasingly tend to overlap, true security does not lie in having more resources, but in possessing the technological, institutional and industrial capacity needed to protect and utilise them even when the situation becomes unpredictable.

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