By Mert Turan
The Recent Development
On the 15th of October, 2024, U.N. Chief António Guterres had an informal meeting with the Cypriot president Nikos Christodoulides and his Turkish counterpart Ersin Tatar. Here, the leaders agreed to meet again in a broader format, with the inclusion of the U.N. Secretary-General and representatives of the guarantors of Cyprus (Turkey, the U.K. and Greece.) This comes after Guterres’ personal envoy to Cyprus, María Cuéllar, failed to find common ground between Turkish and Greek leadership. The purpose of the meeting is to find a way forward for the fate of Cyprus, which has been divided since Turkey’s invasion of the island in 1974.
The Cyprus Issue
Cyprus was a British territory from its annexation in 1914 to the island’s independence in 1960. A condition to its independence was that Greece, Turkey, and Britain would be guarantor states, meaning they could militarily intervene if Cyprus’ independence was threatened. When a paramilitary organization, EOKA B, launched its coup d’etat in an effort to unite with Greece, Turkey responded with a military invasion of the island, using its guarantor status as its casus belli. Other than the coup attempt, EOKA B had also become infamous amongst the Turkish Cypriot community for its hostility towards them. These acts of persecution and subsequent Turkish invasion and occupation have led to social tensions between the people of Cyprus, the consequences of which are still seen to this day. The Cyprus issue has evolved to become a question of how to reconcile the scars left from the Turkish invasion of the island and violent acts of EOKA B.
There have been numerous negotiations and proposals for how to deal with the Cyprus issue, though all have failed to bear fruit. Up until 2017, both sides agreed that Cyprus must become one political entity under a federal framework. Despite this, there are still issues both sides have to overcome. One such issue is the management of properties belonging to displaced people, as thousands of Turks and Greeks were forcefully evicted from their homes in the South and the North. Another is the issue of demilitarization, and the removal of Greek and Turkish soldiers from the island. The status of the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee fits into the same framework. Greek Cypriots support demilitarization and the removal of the guarantor states (Turkey, Greece, and the U.K.) They argue that the treaty gives Turkey too much say in the affairs of Cyprus, and opens the door for another incursion into their territory. Turkish Cypriots on the other hand view Turkey and its military as their protectors; a consequence of past EOKA persecution.
Attempted Negotiations for Reunification
In 1977, just three years after the Turkish invasion, Makarios, the president of Cyprus and Denktaş, the president of (what was then called) the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus met and signed an agreement which stated that a future Cyprus would be based on a federation. It was planned that the details would be discussed further before implementing any plans to form the new Cypriot state. Despite Makarios’ death just months after signing the agreement, talks continued with his successors.
Regardless of the ongoing talks, Denktaş declared independence in 1983 in protest against a U.N. resolution that called for the withdrawal of occupational forces from Cyprus. This led to the establishment of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), though Turkey was (and continues to be) the only country to recognize its independence.
Further negotiations continued for the next 20 years, but ultimately they all failed due several reasons, some causes being: geopolitical developments such as Cyprus’ application to join the European Community (and later, the European Union) and Turkey’s disputes regarding natural resource drilling rights in the Eastern Mediterranean sea, disagreements on demilitarization, property management, power struggles between the U.N. and Denktaş, residency rights regarding Turkish settlers, and territorial disputes. Despite these set-backs, it became clear that most problems revolving around the Cyprus issue came down to the details of federalizing the island around a bi-communal and bi-zonal framework based on ethnicity.
The closest Cyprus came to reuniting was arguably in 2004, when the Annan plan was put to referendum. Named after U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, this plan aimed to make Cyprus a federation, and had been in negotiations for five years. While Turkish Cypriots voted largely in favor of the plan, Greek Cypriots felt it failed to sufficiently address key issues such as reclaiming former properties of Greek Cypriots in the North, the repatriation of Turkish settlers, and the removal of foreign troops. Consequently, over 70% of Greek Cypriots voted against the plan in the referendum, and it failed to pass.
Talks started again in 2008, with the election of Dimitris Christofias, who vowed to restart reunification talks. This was received well by his Turkish counterparts, and negotiations continued for nine years. In 2017, however, negotiations once again broke down, with the TRNC foreign minister stating that a federation on Cyprus was impossible. Turkey and the TRNC have been advocating for a two-state solution ever since.
What can be Expected
Although the past shows a trend of disappointment and fruitless negotiations, the restarting of talks is a sign that all parties involved are still interested in finding a solution that can benefit everyone involved. This means that the talks will at the very least clarify each side’s position, which will in turn help conjure plans to make compromises and establish a middle-ground. Although the next meeting will very likely not conclude the Cyprus issue, it is nonetheless a crucial continuation of solving a 50 year-old problem.