Approaching the anticipated election in France

Translated by Irene Cecchi

The 2024 European elections in France led to an important breakthrough since the party headed by Marine Le Pen Rassemblement National (RN) reached 31.37% of votes. On the other side, the coalition of the current French President Emmanuel Macron only got 14.60% of preferences. This surprising win of the RN party immediately affected the French political situation, so Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly and hold legislative elections due on June 30th and a second round on July 7th.

Macron's decision caused an intense political and social activism in the Country. Several parties started looking for a coalition possibility in order to be strong enough to oppose the rising popularity of the right-wing party Rassemblement National. This is why the left-wing parties immediately formed a new popular front. This coalition includes the Communist Party, the green party Europe Écologie-Les Verts, La France Insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Place Publique and the Socialist Party in an attempt of joining forces in a common front of progressive parties against the far-right and the centrism.

Also Rassemblement National and Eric Ciotti, leader of the Republican Party, tried to sign an agreement: at the beginning Le Pen was thrilled by the idea of an alliance but then it wasn’t sealed because of an internal crisis within the Republican Party that led to Ciotti’s expulsion. In fact, he announced the initiative without even consulting the other directives of the party, causing an irreparable rift.

In the meantime, the election results started a big social mobilization. In the last few days, thousands of French people gathered together in Paris and other cities to protest against the rising consent for the right-wing wave. People of all kinds took part in these protests, including teenagers, workers, students and representatives of different social and political organizations.

The upcoming two weeks of campaigning will be crucial for the future of France. If these parliamentary elections will reflect the same results as the European ones, the French political framework will be facing a “forced coexistence”. The 2024 European elections and the following legislative ones are going to be decisive for France. With the growing tensions and the political and social dynamics, the Country will face important challenges.

The polls suggest a preference for Rassemblement National, reaching 30% of consensus, with Macron’s party almost 10 points far. Marine Le Pen reiterates her will to make every sacrifice needed for France’s sake and her effort for her country and its people, claiming to be committed to this cause.

According to the French electoral system, a party wins directly once it gets the absolute majority, meaning 50% of votes with a participation of at least 25% of the population. Anyways, if no party reaches that threshold, they will have to form an alliance. Marine Le Pen, leader of Rassemblement National, is confident about her win and she is not considering any party for an alliance. Regarding the possibility of a coexistence with President Macron, Le Pen declared that Jordan Bardella, her Prime Minister of choice, can easily coexist politically with Macron until 2027.

On the other hand, Gabriel Attal, the current Prime Minister and candidate with Renaissance party, suggests that if Rassemblement National or the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire will win, it may cause a “big rift in the country”,putting French economy, savings and security at risk.

According to the polls, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Barella’s party seems to be leading. A Harris Interactive survey suggests that Rassemblement National would be around 33%, followed by New Popular Front (the left-wing coalition) with 27% of votes, and then there would be Macron, stuck at 20%.

In a letter for the French people, Emmanuel Macron stands up for his choice of dissolving the parliament against the unanimous critics. He also encourages his people to trust him and promises he will not resign, despite Marine Le Pen demanding it. The President also ensures a change in the way of ruling and suggests a coalition government with every party that opposes the extremists. Macron believes that his party is the only one capable of stopping the far right and far left parties.

Marine Le Pen’s proposal to make Macron resign is groundless. The polls’ projections of the seats division in the Assemblée Nationale are suggesting a brand new scenario: Rassemblement National should reach a relative majority with 210/250 seats, followed by Nouveau Front Populaire (180/210 seats) and by Ensemble (75/105 seats). It seems unlikely that the RN could reach the absolute majority of 289 seats.

Furthermore, the number of votes by proxy increased significantly, with more than a million requests registered before June 25th morning and still rising. The system of voting by proxy allows people who can’t go personally to designate someone else that can go on his behalf.

Taking into consideration until June 30th, the last surveys suggest a turnout at the polls of 64%, significantly higher than 2022 when it was 49%. Although it is clear that Macron’s decision has provoked a reaction, we still have to see which will be its final results and impact.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2024