Edited by Mehmetcan Karakoyun
Relations between the European Union (EU) and Turkey experienced ups and downs throughout the years since Turkey applied for associate membership in the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1959. This application was followed by the signing of the agreement creating an association between the Republic of Turkey and the European Economic Community on 12 September 1963, commonly known as the Ankara Agreement, which sought to establish a Customs Union. Mutual relation between the two parties ceased in the early 1980s due to Turkey’s military coup. However, in 1983, relations were fully restored after the establishment of a New Constitution by public referendum. In 1987, Turkey officially submitted its application for membership. In 1995 and in 1999, Customs Union was constructed between the two sides. December 2004 is the date that the European Council commenced the negotiations with Turkey which resulted in Turkey’s obtainment of official candidate status for full membership in October 2005.
Relations seemed to be developing steadily in coherent political landscape when the negotiations started, hence the result was the official candidate status for Turkey. However, the relations can be explained through the term “stalemate”. In the previous decade Turkey experienced two significant political events: Gezi Protests in 2013 and Coup d’état attempt in 2016. Direct victim of these internal political events were the EU-Turkey relations. These two remarkable events definitely shaped the EU public opinion towards possible full membership of Turkey.
Turkish public opinion’s support towards Turkey’s membership in the EU portray fluctuations over time. The public opinion in Turkey is very sensitive to the political developments in Turkish European relations and responds to these developments positively or negatively (Senyuva, 2018). Furthermore, it is also argued that the support is more likely to remain low in the near future, except for a major concrete breakthrough in Turkey-EU relations, due to the severe erosion of trust in the European Union institutions among Turkish public opinion (Senyuva 2018).
Turkish public opinion is remarkably volatile towards the EU membership. For instance, according to the Transatlantic Trends Survey data, the percentage of Turkish citizens who believe that Turkey joining the EU would be a “good” thing fell from 73% in 2004 to 38% in 2010, and in 2014 bounced back up to 53% (Transatlantic Trends Survey, 2014). This survey is not the only one, also PEW survey supports the existing volatility with the Turkish public.
That table also endorses the fluctuality of Turkish public opinion as Transatlantic Trends Survey data. Moreover, Eurobarometer constitutes the longest running survey in Turkey with specific questions on European Integration and Turkey’s membership. Eurobarometer supports the volatility of the Turkish public opinion as previous surveys. However, there is a difference between PEW and Eurobarometer in regards to questioning, hence different interpretation emerges. While PEW direclty questions whether the individual supports the membership, inquiring political action, Eurobarometer asked the benefits of the EU membership, inquiring assesment.
However, there is a consensus among young Turkish citizens aged between 18-24. According to the research carried out through interviews in March-April 2021 by The German Marshall Fund of the United States with 2.000 people in 29 different cities, 68.8% young Turkish citizens would vote in favor of EU membership in case of referendum. Additionally, 66.2% of the same group thinks that EU membership is a good thing.
The vast majority of the public in the EU do not support the Turkish membership and records are gradually decreasing since 1996.
The majority of the citizens are not in favor of the possible membership of Turkey, which surely creates pressure on the policy makers and decision makers. Overwhelming reluctance of the EU public cannot be ignored, and policies should be formed mildly or should undergo notable changes. Position of majority of public towards this case definitely damages Turkey’s accession process, and politicians who are positive about the membership hesitate to state their opinions. Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU in 2007 despite widespread public concerns about their readiness. The EU is unlikely to repeat what many people saw as a premature and unpopular decision (Barysch 2007).
By breaking this picture down some trends can be discovered. For instance, citizens older and north-western EU member state are more skeptical compared to the citizens of newer and more south-eastern members. Also, governmental approaches to the question tend to be considerably more positive than those of the populations (Lindgaard, 2018). Additionally, within the period between 1996 and 2010, Turkey introduced important reforms in accordance with Copenhagen criteria, and made improvements in the field of human rights, freedom of speech, gender equality etc. However, public opinion seems unconvinced with the developments.
There are significant differences within the Union according to Eurobarometer findings. First of all, except for the United Kingdom, all the members were in favor of enlargement in 2011, but it changed drastically in 2017. Only Cyprus, Slovakia, Estonia, Ireland and the UK supported further enlargement by slight difference, and also against Turkey’s membership by over 50%. Another salient fact is that Cyprus, Slovakia and Estonia became full members in 2004, so they are relatively new member states. All the other members are against further enlargement, so also against Turkey’s membership. The only exception is Sweden, which is not in favor of enlargement process, but in favor of Turkish membership by 52%. This high approval rate might be hidden in the historical ties. Sweden seems to merge an outlier stance on the immigration and integration issue with historically relatively strong relations with the Ottoman Empire trailing back to the first 18th half of the century, and a strong support for Turkish membership from prominent political leaders such as Carl Bildt, to present a strong voice in support of Turkish EU membership (Lindgaard, 2018).
There is a long history line between the two and they have experienced number of ups and downs, but latter is more prevalent. These ups and downs are the reflections of political developments which result in the fluctuations of public opinion. However, the EU side seems more constant on their opinion towards Turkey’s membership, while Turkish public seems to become weary of this process and lose hope over time which reflects on the polls or surveys.
At the beginning, the Turkish public overwhelmingly supported the EU membership, yet things changed in time due to political developments. In recent years EU received harsh criticism from the public, and now all parts of the society whether liberal or conservative, left or right are overwhelmingly against the EU membership and thinks that regardless of which upgrades, or reforms Turkey performs, it will never be allowed to become a member. Even though, people don’t think that Turkey will ever become a member. A research done in 2021 proves that young people are in favor of EU membership and think that it is a good thing. At the end, The EU has lost a huge amount of credibility in the eyes of the Turkish public which will be hard to repair, if there is a willing.
On the other side, the EU side is constant regarding their disapproval of the Turkish membership. Despite the significant efforts of Turkey to comply with the accession criteria, eventual accession of Turkey became less likely over time. All these efforts seem to fail to find a positive reaction from the public.
Governments can be less skeptical towards the possible membership of Turkey; however public opinion is a strong factor which will adversely harm the chances of Turkey becoming a member in the future. We cannot neglect the significance of the public opinion when the decision needs to be made, in this case both sides should work if they are willing to break this deadlock. Turkey should introduce a comprehensive strategy to mend its image not only within the European public but also within international sphere, and the EU should increase its credibility with its actions rather than empty promises if they think pros are dominant over cons and membership of Turkey will be beneficial for every party involved.
Resources:
Francesco-Mayot, S. Should Turkey be Admitted into the European Union? The Debate. Monash European and EU Centre.
Lindgaard, J. (2018). EU Public Opinion on Turkish EU Membership: Trends and Drivers. FEUTURE Online Paper no.25.
Senyuva, O. (2018). Turkish Public Opinion and the EU Membership: Between Support and Mistrust. FEUTURE Online Paper No.26.
Barysch, K. (2007). What Europeans Think about Turkey and Why. Centre for European Reform Essays.