Elettra Tirino (Junior Researcher G.E.O. Environment)
Margherita Camurri (Head Researcher G.E.O. Environment)
Abstract
The imminent annual United Nations Conference of the Parties, COP28, will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Dubai between November 30 and December 12, 2023. Considering its proximity, this analysis retrospectively examines the major outcomes of the latest COP27, held in 2022 in Sharm El-Sheik (Egypt), by highlighting significant achievements and setbacks to establish a linkage between the preceding conference and the imminent one. Despite the mixed results achieved at COP27, the latter has provided the basis for making COP28 a more global environmental conference. Nevertheless, the success of COP28 will strongly depend on whether and how governments are setting up their ambitious responses to climate change adversities
- Introduction
The annual United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP) serves as a pivotal meeting for all member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to come together, evaluate their individual strategies, emission inventories, and the overall progress made toward achieving the Convention's objective, with the ultimate aim to adopt measures to address pressing climate challenges (Gomez, 2023).
The latest conference, COP27, held in 2022 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, brought forwards pivotal outcomes of COP27, such as the consensus to allocate funding for loss and damage, the shared commitments to adhering to the 1.5°C target for curbing global temperature increases, and a notable shift from mere climate pledges to tangible climate action. Despite this, COP27 was also marked by major setbacks including the inability to reach an agreement on the phasing out of fossil fuels and unfilled commitment regarding targets for green finance.
In light of these setbacks, the imminent COP28 - to be hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Dubai between November 30 and December 12, 2023 - comes at a crucial moment to advance international climate action. Considering the growing global concerns about climate change, triggered by a year marked by extreme temperatures and unprecedented climate events such as wildfires, floods, storms, and droughts worldwide, leaders and climate negotiators must approach COP28 with readiness to undertake significant commitments and transformational decisions (Gomez, 2023).
This analysis retrospectively examines the major outcomes of COP27, highlighting significant achievements and setbacks to establish a linkage between the preceding conference and the imminent COP28. The overarching goal of the analysis is to delineate the expectations concerning the key priority areas and climate commitments to be addressed at COP28.
2. COP27: Hits and Misses
2. 1 Loss and Damage Fund: the Historic Breakthrough of COP27
COP27 marked a significant turning point in the history of “Loss and Damage Fund”’s discussion. Dated back to 1996, the idea was launched by developing countries in order to address the geographic imbalances between the causes and the effects of global warming: the countries that are the worst impacted by climate change tend to be those that are least responsible. It was not until COP13, in 2007, that “Loss and Damage Fund” was included in any official COP documentation, demonstrating lack of consensus and lack of political will. Eventually, after almost thirty years, the project became a reality at COP27.
The Loss and Damage Fund is an important first step, a real opportunity for climate justice to take hold. However, its success largely depends on how quickly countries will be able to get the fund up running. The scope and the financing of the new Loss and Damage Fund still needs to be ironed out. Moreover, some of the key details that still need to be defined include:the threshold for damage and loss, which definition of “developed” and “developing” nations will be used, the position of those countries that have high levels of emissions but are classified as developing nations, where the money will come from, how the fund will be aligned with existing UNFCCC funds, and the role of non-state actors.
2.2. Green Hydrogen: the Oil of the Future (of Africa)
COP27 also played an important role in accelerating green hydrogen developments. Firstly, a giant step forward to establish an international green hydrogen trade was taken by the European Union, with Germany leading the way. Additionally, the European Union signed supply deals with Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Namibia to smooth their green hydrogen imports. Secondly, the World Bank launched the Hydrogen for Development Partnership (H4D) to help developing countries to increase access to financial and technical assistance to improve their hydrogen projects. Thirdly, a new global commission was created to speed up, monitor, and support green hydrogen and renewable projects all around the world. However, the greatest achievement about green hydrogen was the recognition of Africa’s potential to become a hydrogen frontrunner.
During COP27, Africa’s enormous potential was recognized since the continent is capable of supplying 10 percent of the world’s green hydrogen market also, just with its existing projects (Piebalgs, 2022). At the same time, the continent is equally rich in coal, oil, and gas, whose assets and industrial capacity are already quite well-developed. This puts African leaders in front of an energy dilemma, as it would be convenient for Africa to use its cheap and readily available fossil assets to address urgent energy needs. However, this represents the least sustainable option as they would massively contribute to global warming. To avoid this, during COP27, global leaders discussed and agreed to help Africa to embark on the potentially slower and socially riskier path in the short-term to increase its renewable energy. The result is that at least 24 green hydrogen projects are either in the discussion stage or underway in Africa, representing 3% of globally announced projects. Moreover, the announced investments in the hydrogen value chain in Africa amounts to more than USD 30 billion (Piebalgs, 2022).
2.3. Food and Water: Climate Responsible and Climate Solutions
For the first time in COP’s history, food and agriculture extensively penetrated the most important global conversation on climate action. One entire negotiation day and five pavilions were dedicated to discussing the future of food and agriculture, recognizing that they are both climate responsible and climate solutions. Indeed, it has been acknowledged that current systems of producing food account for approximately one-third of global greenhouse emissions while degrading the soil and declining biodiversity. Additionally, eight percent of these emissions are produced by food waste while 828 million people are starving every day. On the other hand, farmers all around the world are increasingly coping with climatic adversities.
Evidently concrete steps are needed in order to globally transform the agri-food sector. In this sense, at COP27 two initiatives have been launched: The Food and Agriculture for Sustainable Transformation initiative (FAST) and the Initiative on Climate Action and Nutrition (I-CAN). FAST aims to decarbonize and increase resilience of the food industry by 2030, especially in the world’s most vulnerable countries, by improving the quality and the quantity of climate finance contributions. I-CAN became the guide for governments and financial institutions to work on the relationship between nutrition and climate crisis. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), alongside other UN agencies, will be the facilitator of this initiative by providing a roadmap by COP28. It will help countries to have access to climate investment, increase knowledge, and provide policy support and dialogue guaranteeing that the food-industry can stay within a 1.5° C pathway, be climate-resilient, and pursue food security goals.
The critical ties between food and agriculture climate have been stressed also through another topic: water. Climate change is negatively affecting the global natural water cycle, resulting in flooding and droughts and reduced access to safe drinking. COP27 recognized that and introduced for the first time water in its official agenda, stressing the importance of water as both a key climate change problem and a potential solution. Precisely, the new Action for Water Adaptation and Resilience (AWARe) initiative started the discussion about how to decrease water losses worldly and how to improve global water supply through the creation of integrated databases for water, climate, and weather.
2.4. Fossil Fuels: a Missed Opportunity
In 2021, during COP26 in Glasgow, the first ever agreement that acknowledged the role of fossil fuels as the main source of green gas emissions was agreed. It called on countries to phase out measures which subsize the extraction or consumption of fossil fuels and to “phase-down” coal power. With the beginning of COP27, new progress updates were expected but due to the current energy crisis and the short-term responses to it by governments have undermined the possibility of finding an agreement about the end of fossil fuels dominance. On the other hand, according to some government officials, fossil fuel producers’ presence at COP27 was also partly responsible. Fossil fuel producers benefited from sympathetic treatment by the host country, Egypt, which is a natural gas exporter and frequent recipient of funds from Gulf oil producers. However, Egyptian officials have denied this last hypothesis.
As a result, COP27 yielded mixed results, with a hard-fought agreement on a fund for countries most affected by climate change and a cover text that does not fully reflect the urgency of the climate crisis. Both are in line with what came out of COP26 last year, to accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuels. Additionally, it included a new reference to “low emission and renewable energy”, reflecting the language of the “just transition” adopted by all parties. Besides that, many climate activists and some delegates claimed that little progress had been made on most other issues while some negotiators expressed concern that Egypt had advanced its proposal without thorough consultation.
Overall, lack of political will, exogenous events, and external influence make the transition away from fossil fuel one of the most difficult ones.
2.5. Another Flashpoint: Green Finance
In COP15, held in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries agreed to ensure a flow of climate finance funding of USD 100 billion a year by 2020. In 2020, only USD 83.3 billion was delivered. At COP26, developed economies committed to at least double their climate aids for adaptation by 2025. But once more, COP27 failed to keep its promises on green finance targets: it only delivered one part of the climate finance puzzle – the Loss and Damage Fund.
This failure at COP27 is particularly distressing because estimates of the total spending needed to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C or at 1.5°C indicate that USD 100 billion a year is a meaningless figure. The report of Working Group III in the Sixth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that, relative to assessed needs, yearly flows of climate finance would have to rise by between four and eight times in developing countries and two and five times in developed ones (Brussel International Center, 2022). Another example of green finance’s meager outcome is the lack of mention of the need to distribute it more equally, in particular to the most vulnerable countries and those experiencing armed conflicts, which have been the most neglected by climate aid.
3. What Should We Expect from COP28?
3.1 A Controversial Presidency with an Ambitious Agenda
The UAE's presidency of COP28 has faced controversy, with concerns raised by climate activists about the suitability of a major oil-producing nation hosting pivotal climate negotiations. The dissemination of information pertaining to 'greenwashing' practices and the dual role of the COP28 President as the CEO of the national oil company have in fact contributed to a widespread sense of skepticism regarding the UAE Presidency's genuine commitment to ensuring the success of COP28 (Ozdemir et al., 2023).
Despite these assertions, experts have highlighted that COP28 Presidency’s vision sets forth exceptionally ambitious goals, aiming to address unresolved issues from previous climate summits through an agenda centered on action and systems transformation (Ozdemir et al., 2023). In the July 2023 letter addressed to the parties, the Incoming Presidency announced that COP28’s vision is focused on four transformative shifts: “Fast-tracking the energy transition and slashing emissions before 2030; Transforming climate finance, by delivering on old promises and setting the framework for a new deal on finance; Putting nature, people, lives and livelihoods at the heart of climate action; Mobilizing for the most inclusive COP ever.” (UNFCCC, 2023).
Major commitments from the COP28 Presidency include achieving the long-awaited $100 billion annual climate financing target, doubling adaptation finance by 2025, and operationalizing the loss-and-damage fund. Additionally, it aims to transform the existing climate financing landscape, with the ambitious goal of making trillions of dollars in investments accessible for developing nations. The COP28 Presidency is also pioneering tangible agreements on renewable energy expansion, the gradual reduction of fossil fuels, and the phasing out of emissions from fossil fuels that are not captured (Ozdemir et al., 2023).
Therefore, despite the legitimate concerns regarding the UAE’s Presidency and the influence of the oil industry, the ambitious agenda of COP28 unveils significant milestones that have the potential to pave the way for transformative global climate action.
3.2 The First Global Stocktake
COP 28 will be marked by the conclusion of the first-ever Global Stocktake, established in 2015 as an integral component of the Paris Agreement.
The Global Stocktake serves as a periodic review mechanism for countries and relevant stakeholders to assess their collective progress in achieving the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement. Taking place every five years, this systematic review process facilitates the identification of both areas of success and those requiring further attention. Its findings are intended to guide the formulation of subsequent NDCs (UNFCCC, 2023).
In September 2023, the technical dialogue (TD) among Parties, experts and Non-Party Stakeholders took place to discuss and develop a shared understanding of the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake. As outlined by the TD, the first Global Stocktake discusses 17 key findings and corresponding recommendations across the following areas: the context of climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies, and the implementation and financing of climate action (Masterson, 2023). Notably, the evaluation exposes noticeable gaps in both effective mitigation and adaptation measures, and highlights that current global emissions trends still deviate significantly from the needed path to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C. Additionally, the stocktake emphasizes the urgent need for a comprehensive systems transformation that integrates climate resilience into mainstream development, aligning with low greenhouse gas emissions, essential for long-term sustainable development and poverty alleviation. Last, the stocktake reveals the widening gap between the needs of developing countries and the support they receive, urging the redirection of trillions of dollars toward climate-resilient initiatives (UNFCCC, 2023).
During COP 28, governments and other key actors will deliberate on these findings: over the conference’s opening week, the High-Level Committee responsible for overseeing the Global Stocktake will coordinate a series of high-level discussions on crucial outcomes, opportunities, key messages, good practices, and challenges identified through the review mechanism (Gillod, 2023). Ultimately, the aim of these dialogues is to assist governments in formulating more ambitious and effective goals informed by the Global Stocktake’s findings, to be included in their upcoming NDCs, scheduled for submission by 2025.
3.3 Key Priority Areas
During COP28, countries are expected to deliver a decisive response to the findings of the first Global Stocktake particularly across the following priority areas.
1. Delivering Climate Finance
The mobilization of climate finance remains a focal point in this year’s negotiations. Notably, following the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund during COP27, the major focus is on making this fund operational and securing substantial contributions. However, during COP28 countries will also seek to address other crucial climate finance issues, including the persistent challenge of developed countries to fulfill the commitment made in 2020 to reach the $100 billion annual threshold for public and private climate finance for developing economies (Aberg & Townend, 2023). COP28 will also initiate discussions on a new post-2025 global climate finance goal, succeeding the $100 billion goal. Last, in light of COP26’s goal to double adaptation finance from 2019 levels by 2025, aiming for a better balance between mitigation and adaptation funding, there will also be a focus on reassessing the current trends in this area (Waskow et al., 2023).
2. Speeding a Just Energy Transition
Energy security has gained prominence recently, driven partly by the consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also warned that achieving net-zero by 2050 requires a collective reduction of energy-related emission by 15 gigatons by 2030 (IEA, 2021). For these reasons, accelerating the energy transition inclusively and sustainably sits high on the agenda at COP28. Discussions will focus on the rapid scaling up of renewable energy, how innovations like hydrogen fuels and carbon capture technologies can help reduce emissions. At the same time, delegates will look for pathways to ensure the energy transition benefits developing nations and minority communities in equal measure, to deliver a just transition that leaves nobody behind (Gomez, 2023).
3. Phasing Out Fossil Fuels
As the phasing down of all fossil fuels was excluded from the final outcome of COP27, the focal point at COP28 is to secure an agreement to prompt a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. The debate on fossil fuels currently revolves around whether to adopt language to “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels and if countries will commit to scaling back the use of all fossil fuels or just unabated fossil fuels, where technologies to capture carbon pollution are not used. The discussion on the first Global Stocktake presents an opportunity for governments to collectively commit to these targets and set goals for doubling fossil-free transport by 2030, critical for reducing oil demand, and redirecting investments to clean energy and transport (Waskow et al., 2023).
4. Reforming Food Systems
Responding to the growing acknowledgement of the role of food systems and agriculture in GHG emissions, COP28 places a strong emphasis on this sector and will be the first climate summit explicitly recognizing the interconnected relationship between food, land use, and the climate crisis. In July 2023, the COP Presidency and the UN Food Systems Coordination Hub launched the COP28 Food Systems and Agriculture Agenda, calling countries to align their national food systems and agricultural policies with NDCs and national adaptation plans (NAPs) (Aberg & Townend, 2023). The outcomes of the first Global Stocktake further emphasizes the need for governments to advance this agenda, highlighting the urgency of achieving a comprehensive transformation of food systems by addressing interconnected challenges such as demand-side measures, land use change, and deforestation (Waskow et al., 2023).
5. Investigating the Nexus between Health and Climate
As emphasized by the World Health Organization, “the climate crisis is unequivocally a health crisis” (WHO, 2023). In recognition of this, COP28 is set to launch the first-ever 'Day of Health' during Climate Week, drawing attention to the imminent health threat faced by almost half of the global population. By integrating health into the global climate change agenda, COP-28 is set to highly elevate the political significance of the nexus between climate and health. This is expected to prompt governments to engage in discussions about the need for significant investments in the health sector, aiming to establish resilient health systems capable of withstanding climate change impacts (UNFCCC, 2023).
Conclusion
Overall, despite the mixed results achieved at COP27, the latter has provided the basis for making COP28 a more global environmental conference. COP27 had a particular importance for supporting climate financing for developing countries and supporting energy transition sustainability and equitably for all relevant parties, consolidating constructive partnerships between the public and private sectors. Additionally, COP28 will benefit from COP27’s track records in reducing emissions in leading the way for a cleaner and more renewable energy sector, as well as in supporting the implementation of the outputs of the previous COPs to achieve the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, the success of COP28 will strongly depend on whether countries set up ambitious responses to the first Global Stocktake, whether countries agree to fully operationalize the “Loss and Damage Fund” and how governments are preparing their pledges to put forward much stronger national NDCs in 2025.
Moreover, the selection of Egypt and the UAE as the host countries for COP27 and COP28 respectively signifies a collective commitment to prioritizing climate justice in international climate negotiations. Despite the many criticisms about their genuine commitments, the presence of the Middle East and North Africa regions at the most important environmental conference in fact continues to grow. This is expected to bridge the gap between the South and the North of the world and between developing and developed countries. Reducing the gap means finding innovative green solutions to the challenges posed by climate change, ensuring long-term economic and social benefits for the most vulnerable regions and the world and achieving a more sustainable future for all.
To conclude, despite adversity and criticism, COP28 sets up a very determined mission which portends a real environmental turning point:
“COP28 UAE brings the world together at a critical moment for global transformative climate action. To deliver on its ambitious agenda COP28 UAE will be inclusive, transparent, pragmatic, and results-oriented”.
Bibliography
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