Armenia and Azerbaijan: How the Caucasus Is Changing Under Trump’s Mediation

Translated by Federico Emanuele

The meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Washington led to the signing of a peace agreement that officially ends the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, paving the way for a new phase of stability and cooperation in the region. The deal calls for the full normalization of relations between the two countries through the settlement of outstanding border issues. U.S. President Donald Trump’s role as mediator also produced an agreement on the development of the Zangezur Corridor, a vital route linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia, offering an alternative to the connections currently running through Georgia and Iran. During the meeting among the three leaders, it was announced that the United States would oversee the project, to be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which will also include infrastructure designed to bring Armenia unprecedented American investment. These plans helped overcome Armenian objections to the corridor, long seen as a violation of national sovereignty in the sensitive regions of Syunik and Zangezur, historically claimed by both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, which for more than three decades has strained relations between Yerevan and Baku, has triggered repeated armed clashes — the latest beginning in September 2020 and ending after 44 days of fighting with a ceasefire signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia played a pivotal role in mediating territorial claims between the two former Soviet republics, deploying its forces as a peacekeeping mission under the terms of the 2020 deal. Yet the agreements fell short of delivering a lasting settlement, leading to renewed escalation in September 2022, when Azerbaijan launched its largest military offensive along Armenia’s eastern border. In December 2022, Baku imposed a blockade of the Lachin Corridor, provoking a severe humanitarian crisis in Karabakh. After ten months of isolation and repeated attacks, local authorities signed a peace agreement that dissolved the region’s autonomous institutions starting in 2024, alongside Moscow’s announcement of a Russian troop withdrawal.

Since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, Russia has progressively reduced its military and diplomatic presence in the South Caucasus, creating space for other regional players. Turkey, by contrast, has stepped up its military and political support for Azerbaijan — and stands to benefit greatly from the Trump-backed corridor. The project would not only strengthen Ankara’s ties with its Azerbaijani ally but also deepen links with other Turkic states of Central Asia, potentially further reducing Russian influence in the region.

The meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Washington led to the signing of a peace agreement that officially ends the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, paving the way for a new phase of stability and cooperation in the region. The deal calls for the full normalization of relations between the two countries through the settlement of outstanding border issues. U.S. President Donald Trump’s role as mediator also produced an agreement on the development of the Zangezur Corridor, a vital route linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia, offering an alternative to routes currently passing through Georgia and Iran. During the meeting among the three leaders, it was announced that the United States would oversee the project, to be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which will also include infrastructure expected to bring Armenia unprecedented American investment. These plans helped overcome Armenian objections to the corridor, long seen as a violation of national sovereignty in the sensitive regions of Syunik and Zangezur, historically claimed by both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, which for more than three decades has undermined relations between Yerevan and Baku, has triggered repeated conflicts — the latest beginning in September 2020 and ending after 44 days with a ceasefire signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia played a key role in mediating territorial claims, deploying peacekeeping troops under that deal. Yet the accords failed to secure a final settlement, leading to renewed escalation in September 2022, when Azerbaijan launched its largest military offensive along Armenia’s eastern border. In December 2022, Baku imposed a blockade on the Lachin Corridor, sparking a severe humanitarian crisis. After ten months of isolation and repeated offensives, local authorities signed a peace agreement that dissolved Nagorno-Karabakh’s autonomous institutions beginning in 2024, accompanied by Moscow’s announcement of a Russian troop withdrawal.

Since the Ukraine war in 2022, Russia has steadily reduced its presence in the South Caucasus, creating space for other actors. Turkey, in contrast, increased its military and political support for Azerbaijan and stands to benefit from the Trump-backed corridor, which would strengthen ties not only with Baku but also with other Turkic states of Central Asia, further eroding Russian influence.

However, President Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged Trump’s mediation role, accepting the outcomes of the peace accords. Russia’s military focus on Ukraine has relegated Nagorno-Karabakh to a secondary issue in the Kremlin’s agenda, while both Armenia and Azerbaijan have drifted away from Moscow. For Prime Minister Pashinyan, the failure of Russian peacekeepers to intervene during attacks on Karabakh in 2023 marked a breaking point, prompting Armenia to consider leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Moscow-led military alliance. Pashinyan also declared that Armenia’s dependence on Russia was a “serious mistake,” signaling an effort to rebalance alliances and seek new global partners, including the United States.

Azerbaijani President Aliyev has also cooled ties with Moscow. Relations worsened dramatically after December 2024, when a Russian missile shot down an Azerbaijani passenger plane, killing several civilians — an incident for which Moscow refused to take responsibility. Tensions deepened further when two ethnic Azeris were killed by Russian police during a raid in Yekaterinburg, prompting Baku to suspend all meetings with Russian officials and to move closer to Turkey both politically and strategically.

Russian interests were not the only ones affected by the agreements reached in Washington. For years, Georgia has played a strategic role, serving both as an alternative route for trade between Azerbaijan and Turkey, and as Armenia’s main outlet to international markets during the long embargo imposed on the Turkish-Armenian border. While Georgia could still benefit from increased foreign investment and renewed regional trade, its exclusion from the talks — due to the current Tbilisi government’s close ties to Russia — could marginalize the country and diminish the relevance of Georgian transit routes, given the competitiveness of the TRIPP corridor.

Iran is also directly impacted by the Trump-backed project, which would run through Armenia’s Syunik region, bordering northern Iran. Tehran has consistently opposed the corridor, viewing it as a NATO strategy to encircle Russia and Iran, while also limiting trade between Iran and Armenia. The economic implications are significant: Iran would cease to serve as a transit hub for commerce between Turkey and Central Asia. Iranian opposition has only intensified with the involvement of the United States in the negotiations. The construction of TRIPP would bring an American presence to Iran’s northern border, prompting Tehran to denounce the project as a serious threat to regional stability and to threaten to block its implementation.

The recent bilateral agreements signed by Trump with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to strengthen economic ties with the South Caucasus underline Washington’s determination to become a more influential and entrenched regional actor. This is reinforced by the TRIPP agreement’s clause granting the United States exclusive control over the corridor for 99 years.

The pact reached in Washington could mark the beginning of a new era of cooperation among the countries involved, while also setting the stage for the rise of new regional players. Yet the conflict’s deep ethnic and historical complexities, overlapping strategic interests, and potential interference from Russia and Iran could all hinder the project’s success, especially in the long term — as shown by the instability that followed previous agreements. If sustained, however, the peace accord could transform the South Caucasus from a theater of “frozen wars” into a bridge of cooperation. Without genuine convergence of interests, though, another fragile truce could collapse into new fractures, reshaping not only the region but also the broader balance of power among Russia, Iran, and the United States.

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