Translated by Silvia Toro
The night of December 3rd, the South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol broke the country’s constitutional order by invoking the martial law and sending the armed forces into the National Assembly in order to take control of it. This behavior, which is totally condemned as it represents a violation of the basic democratic rules, has caused a four-month institutional crisis. Finally, last week, the Constitutional Court upheld Yoon impeachment, convicting him of “violating the constitutional order” and “betraying the people’s trust.” The sentence opened the door to anticipated presidential elections, which will be held on June 3rd.
The Korean Democratic Party (KDP), the main opposition force, sees this sentence as a confirmation of the stability of the democratic means of control. On the contrary, the People Power Party (PPP), the one to which the former president belonged, has reacted with contempt at first. Soon, however, a more moderate statement was issued, asserting respect for the rule of law and the constitutional order.
After the crisis, according to recent polls, the public compass seems to be pointing to the opposition in view of the June elections. Nevertheless, analysts believe that this support may not be a vote of confidence for the KPD, but rather a consequence of public disappointment with Yoon.
The KPD candidate is likely to be Lee Jae-myung, who was already a candidate in 2022, but his candidacy has not yet been officially confirmed. As of today, the polls give him 34% of preferences, a place that none of his opponents can reach. His party’s sweeping victory in last year’s general elections helped his rise, as did his recent acquittal on charges of misrepresentation during the 2022 campaign. However, Lee is still involved in several criminal charges, including corruption and official misconduct.
On the other hand, PPP is at a crossroads. The party must choose between distancing itself from Yoon's legacy, in the hope of attracting the votes of moderates and independents, or betting on traditional beliefs that remain consistent with the former president’s line. Another hardship that poses a challenge to the party is the absence of a clear favorite. At the moment, leading the polls among the right-wing is the minister of labor Kim Moon-soo, Yoon’s solid ally, a conservative and integralist. The congressman Ahn Cheol-soo was the first to announce his candidacy, presenting a proposal based on constitutional reforms and a five-year economic plan based on AI. Even the current President Han Duck-soo is the subject of speculation because of his bipartisan experience, which might attract the votes of moderates, thanks to his diplomatic credentials.
The stakes, however, go beyond domestic politics. The uncertainties that depict South Korean politics are, in fact, entangled in an international context that is getting increasingly tense. Specifically, Seoul sees military cooperation between North Korea and Russia and trade global tensions as fundamental challenges. Then, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy has raised doubts about the partnership with Washington, calling into question the strength of the tripartite Seoul-Tokyo-Washington cooperation.
To complete the picture, Yoon’s destitution might significantly redefine South Korea’s foreign policy. During his mandate, Yoon favored a close alignment with Washington and Tokyo. A proof of that is the 2023 Camp David trilateral summit and the Washington Declaration. The question of whether this path will be followed is raised by his removal.
The uncertainty created by Trump’s haphazard foreign policy is reflected also on the trade side, raising concerns about the stability of his current economic relationships. The new protectionist measures announced by Washington, if implemented, could threaten key sectors of the economy of South Korea, such as the automotive industry. In this unsteady environment, Seoul seems to be wading into a broader regional cooperation: just two days before the U.S. President’s duties announcement on April 2, China, Japan, and South Korea held their first high-level economic summit in five years, a clear statement of interest in a likely trilateral free trade agreement.
In all likelihood, Beijing will focus on this uncertainty to undermine the Seoul-Washington partnership and expand his influence in the region. A potential victory by the Korean Democratic Party (KDP) could favor this process. Although Lee Jae-myung recently reaffirmed his support for trilateral cooperation with Washington and Tokyo, his past criticism of the U.S. military presence in South Korea questions the direction he might give to the foreign policy of the country in the long run.
If the economic pressure from Washington continues, Lee may be forced to seek closer economic ties with China. So, a KPD-led administration might make a cautious move towards Beijing, especially if an internal crisis makes Chinese economic incentives more appealing than the military guarantees offered by the United States. At the same time, Beijing is likely to step up his media offensive, showing itself as a stable and pragmatic economic partner.
In spite of the reaffirmation of Lee Jae-myung about his commitment to cooperate with the United States and Japan, it is unlikely that the collaboration will proceed without arguments. Skepticism spreading among the KPD, reinforced by a lingering anti-Japanese feeling, might complicate the strengthening of this alliance. At the same time, a progressive administration could also have a different approach to relations with Pyongyang. Historically, DPK governments have always taken a more moderate and dialogue-oriented approach towards North Korea.
Nonetheless, polls aside, the results of the next elections are still up in the air, and the orientation of the KPD may not be that predominant. In the situation of a progressive administration, new diplomatic channels may open up due to a more diplomatic approach towards Pyongyang. But the alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia, with the frequent missile provocations, might limit the maneuver margin. This change could shorten the distance between a possible deal between Trump and Kim Jong-un. On the contrary, a PPP administration might find in Trump the right ally to contrast with China. However, there could be some issues in dealing with the North Korean situation.
South Korea’s new elections will not only determine the future leader of the country, but also the evolution of its alliances and foreign policy. A progressive government might get close to Pyongyang but might have issues with trilateral relations, while a right-wing administration would strengthen ties with the United States and Japan but face a challenge with North Korea. In any case, the result of the election will have an important impact on the international position of South Korea.
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