From the far East to the Ukrainian front

The partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang establishes new global balance

  Articoli (Articles)
  Francesco Oppia
  11 November 2024
  5 minutes, 32 seconds

Translated by Irene Cecchi


In October 2024, the UN Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed for the first time the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia, in the Kursk region. According to some US Defense Department’s estimates, North Korea sent about ten thousand soldiers to train in Russia. Their arrival might increase the pressure on the Ukrainian army, already under siege, even if the Korean army doesn’t have any recent experience. This agreement is the latest proof of the close relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang that has been developing since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, an agreement that is based on mutual support in case of “aggression”.

The Russian President Vladimir Putin might gain immediate military advantages with the presence of North Korean troops. According to the latest info, since August 2023 Russia has been receiving containers with military equipment, about 13000 by now, to restock the few Russian reserves. Moreover, now that Russia is facing a lack of national conscripts, the presence of North Korean troops might lighten the pressure on finding new recruits and their general reticence to be in the front line.

On the other hand, North Korea is encouraged to send its soldiers thanks to the military technology that Russia might share and to the ensured support that, in case of another Korean war, Russia promised. Along with payments in a foreign currency and food aid, Pyongyang is also interested in advanced military technologies to foster its nuclear, missile and satellite programmes and other defence activities. In particular, Kim wants to obtain silent nuclear powered submarines that can launch ballistic missiles to reach the US and its allies. Pyongyang is also interested in making its missiles less vulnerable to the US anti-missiles systems and Russia can contribute to modernize North Korean forces.

Russian tech support to North Korea might foster some kind of escalation against South Korea and also strengthen its position in international politics. Pyongyang sees in the Ukrainian conflict a chance to grow its own global relevance, relying on Russian support in the UN Security Council where the ally can express vetoes. With the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia, it’s plausible that Moscow will keep backing Pyongyand in international events.

China, historically North Korea's main commercial partner, is growing distress regarding the partnership with Moscow. Beijing repeatedly tried to deny every suspicion of cooperation with North Korea and Russia and is worried that the Western world might see a complicity in the Ukrainian conflict. This risk is directly in contrast with all Chinese efforts to strengthen economic and commercial relations with the European Union, efforts that might result in being highly affected.

China is also worried that the stronger ties between Russia and North Korea will undermine its influence over Pyongyang. Despite the renewal in 2021 of the treaty of mutual defence, Beijing didn’t strengthen too much the diplomatic relations with the Asian country, with the risk that China might be seen as a player unable to influence its allies and, as a consequence, not a valid leader alternative in the new global order.

On the same level, the deployment of North Korean troops amplifies the need for a stronger defensive cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan. The Putin-Kim alliance pushes Washington towards a more incisive support to his allies that may in the future be translated into a greater NATO involvement in the region. This is exactly the perspective that China was trying to avoid since a militar empowerment of South Korea, with the nuclear option, would only intensify the instability in Eastern Asia.

The news of the deployment of North Korean troops worried Seoul that, until now, backed Ukraine only in an indirect way, following the principle that forbade the sale of arms to countries at war. But with North Korea intervention, Seoul is now facing a strategic dilemma that might lead to a change in its stand, especially if the relations between Russia and North Korea keep on growing. At the end of last month, the South Korean government raised the possibility of direct military support to Kiev, an historical change of track of its foreign policy.

Another key factor in Seoul’s strategy is the growing cooperation with NATO and other allies in the indo-pacific area. On October 28th, a South Korean delegation composed by top intelligence and defence officials took part in a meeting with the NATO Council and indo-pacific partners in order to share its evaluation on the deployment of North Korean troops and coordinate the monitoring of the situation in Ukraine. This cooperation with NATO may allow Seoul to collect and share fundamental information on North Korean tactics and operational capabilities.

Another focal point is the possibility that South Korea helps Ukrainian psychology operations in making North Koreans desert; this would represent a further step in the relations with Western allies.

The involvement of North Korean troops in the war in Ukraine links European security matters with Indo-Pacific ones underlining the fact that, from now on, these two scenarios can not be considered separately. From Europe’s perspective, almost unanimously by Ukraine’s side, North Korea’s support to Moscow makes their relations even more complex, also increasing the tensions with Beijing.

The latest visit in Eastern Asia by Josep Borrell has been an important landmark in the European involvement in the region framework, as shows the signing of the defensive partnership with Japan. If in the past this kind of agreement would have been impossible, now the situation seems to demand it, leading to a greater European presence in the area. However, the EU is still cautious in connecting Beijing directly to the war in Ukraine.

The enforced coordination between South Korea, NATO (considering the implication of the upcoming Trump presidency) and European allies represent a central part of the global security net connecting Europe and Asia. In the long-term, North Korean presence might not only change the destiny of the conflict in Ukraine but also reveal a worrying trend of tensions’ enlargement and joined scenarios that once were clearly separate.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2024

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L'Autore

Francesco Oppia

Autore di Mondo Internazionale Post

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Eastern Asia

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Russia Corea del Nord guerra