Deep State Ukraine: cognitive war and the strategic role of intelligence in the global iper-competition.

Translated by Irene Cecchi

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, started in 2014 and got worse with the 2022 Russian invasion, created a new dimension of fight: the cognitive war. This kind of conflict doesn't only use conventional weapons but also uses perceptions’ manipulation, information’s control and widespread disinformation, aiming to influence public opinions, to destabilize governments and undermine social cohesion. In this context, intelligence plays a fundamental role in hindering these threats, protecting the stability of democratic institutions and ensuring information security.

The cognitive war, an upgrade of the psychological and information war, is particularly clear in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Russia, with a long history of information manipulation and propaganda, used a lot of tactics related to cognitive war to destabilize Ukraine such as fake news spreading and manipulation of official facts narration in order to create confusion and disorientation. Digital platforms, especially social media, became fertile ground for these hybrid operations since they can reach huge audiences in a short time.

One of the most clear examples is how Russia used online platforms to amplify favorable narrations that described Ukraine as a “nazi-country” or a threat for russian speakers there. Disinformation campaigns had a huge impact and diffusion not only in Russia but also in some environments of the western world, fostering social and political divisions.

In this context of cognitive war, intelligence plays a central strategic role. Security agencies do not settle anymore with gathering military information but they also have to identify and hinder disinformation campaigns. The fight against disinformation requires a multidimensional approach that includes monitoring social media platforms, analyzing hostile narration and cooperating with public institutions to spread accurate information.

Counter-espionage operations are more focused on identifying fake news webs that often use bots or fake accounts to rapidly share misleading news. Advanced techniques of “data mining” and AI are used to track these webs, find the origin of the messages and prove them wrong before they can cause significant damage.

Moreover, the agencies also have to protect critical infrastructures such as governments and media’s information systems that are often the target of cyber attacks. Communication networks’ attacks are often combined with disinformation campaigns to destabilize them more, this is why it’s important for security agencies to guarantee their resilience.

Another crucial aspect, deeply related to cognitive war and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is the iper-competition phenomenon. This term defines a continuous and accelerated conflict state where the parties try not only to militarly prevail but also to gain a strategic edge through the fast evolution and adaptation of the used strategies. This kind of competition also has implications in the information and cognitive domain where the control of narrations and perceptions becomes crucial to influence political and military decisions. In the Ukrainian context, the iper-competition led the parties to fight for information control. Every military action, attack or advance is rapidly turned into a mediatic narration, amplified on social media and through global webs. The spreading rapidity of these news is fundamental to gain strategic advantages since the audience's perceptions can influence the troops’ morale, the public opinion and international support.

A clear example of iper-competition is the narration management of Mariupol’s siege. While Russia was trying to describe taking the city as a justified and strategic win, Ukraine used the photos and testimonies to show the atrocities and human rights’ violations carried out during the siege, influencing the international public opinion and the support for its troops.

In an iper-competition context, propaganda and narrations’ manipulation are crucial tools to influence the cognitive battlefield. Both parties in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict tried to control the information flow and use the media to influence the global perceptions. Russia, having a long history of information manipulation, used state media channels and webs to spread disinformation and its own side of the story, often bending it to justify the aggression.

On the other hand, Ukraine, backed by Western Countries, developed a counter-propaganda focused on the Russian army's human rights’ violations. The Ukrainian government used photos, videos and civilians’ testimonies as proof to foster international support and keep the population morale high. In the era of information iper-competition, the information's rapidity and accuracy can make the difference between success and failure of strategic operations.

Cognitive war and information iper-competition deeply changed the conflict itself, even if the battlefield is still fundamental, the narrations and public perceptions’ control became a key element for the strategic success. Intelligence too plays a central role in detecting and hindering disinformation campaigns, protecting critical infrastructures and ensuring accurate news are spread.

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