Framing The World, C Edition

Framing The World, C Edition

On the occasion of the 100th issue of Framing the World we collected the news that changed 2022 and that will also impact 2023. In this report we have covered key events such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US midterm elections and the international screening of Xi Jinping at the G20 in Bali. Going instead to examine the regional quadrants, we focused on the status of democracies in Latin America, on the security crisis in the Sahel and on the changes underway in the MENA area, represented by the protests in Iran. Last but not least, a focus on the European Union with the payment of the first installment of NRP to Italy and the description of the negotiations for the entry of new members from Eastern Europe. All linked to the most relevant economic events.

All this and more in the 100th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

June 24th: US, the Supreme Court annuls Roe v. Wade. On June 24, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the constitutional protection of the abortion right since 1973. The decision – adopted by 6 votes in favor and 3 against – was expected since last May, when a leaked draft written by the Republican Judge Samuel Alito, in which emerged the willingness of the Supreme Court to overturn the sentence, was published. After the decision, 9 states emanated laws banning abortion. Then there are other 9 states which are expected to allow bans or other limits on the procedure to take effect in the next weeks. If all these states will pose restrictions on abortion, more than 37 million women will not be able to have access to this right in the state in which they live.

September 16th: Iran, protests escalate after the death of Mahsa Amini. On September 16, 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in Tehran after being three days in a coma. Amini was arrested on the 13th of September by the 'moral police' for not complying with the law requiring women to cover their hair with a hijab and their arms and legs with loose clothing, a law that is in force since 1981. The police immediately denied any responsibility, stating that Amini suffered heart failure. However, several doctors confirmed that the wounds found on her body were attributable to a beating. Mahsa Amini’s death sparked protests across the country, to which the regime responded with harsh repression. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, as of January 10, 2023, at least 520 people - including 70 children - have been killed, while more than 19,000 have been arrested. The deaths include Mohsen Shekari and Majidreza Rahnavard, who were hanged in December after being found guilty of "declaring war on God".

Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

September 26: UK, the sterling sinks. The sterling-dollar exchange rate plummeted to its lowest since 1985 (£1=$1.086) after Kwarteng, the Truss government's new Chancellor of the Exchequer, presented a £45 billion package of tax cuts to parliament. The measures include the most significant tax cut since Thatcher's days, elimination of the 45% rate on higher incomes, and a reduction of taxes on dividends, with the aim of triggering a virtuous cycle of growth. However, the plan has worried markets because of doubts about its economic sustainability and the amount of new debt required, with the pound losing 3.57 % in the ensuing hours. The harshest criticism came from former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers: "The UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market [...], and will be remembered for having pursued the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time".

November 21: FTX, $10 billion disappeared. FTX's initial problem, namely Binance's loss of confidence in the FTX token after a CoinDesk article, and the ensuing bank run by people who held wallets on the platform revealed FTX's lack of liquidity. Binance initially agreed to save FTX by purchasing it but the deal fell through after the revelation that several federal agencies were investigating the company. It was later revealed how FTX improperly loaned $10 billion of customer funds to a sister company (Alameda Research), which then "lost" them in bad investments and personal loans to FTX's founders. The company is now in a state of bankruptcy and new CEO and liquidator John Ray III (former liquidator of Enron), wrote in a filing with the U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware that he has never seen “a complete failure of corporate controls [...] as occurred here”.

January 9: Stock exchanges, a year to forget. Investors' 2022 ended with the first annual decline since 2018, with U.S. indices falling between 9% for the Dow Jones and 33% for the Nasdaq (the worst figure since 2008), and European indices generally containing declines (Ftse MIB -15%, Dax 30 -8%, CAC 40 -5%) or even closing higher (Ftse 100 +3%) thanks to the fall rally. However, performance is extremely varied: while the technology sector was hammered by heavy selling (Apple -27%, Amazon -50%, Meta, Tesla, and PayPal over -60%), sectors such as energy (+59% despite oil closing the year at only +6%) and aerospace and defense (Northrop and Lockheed +40%) were lifelines for investors. The fixed-income sector was also down, experiencing its fourth worst year since 1700, while a hypothetical combined portfolio of stocks and bonds scored the worst return since 1871.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

September 26: Equatorial Guinea, death penalty abolished. "The death penalty is totally abolished in the Republic of Equatorial Guinea," so reads the law of the new penal code signed by the head of state. In addition to being announced on national television, the above text was also posted by the vice president on Twitter to give further visibility to the news. Equatorial Guinea is one of the most closed countries in the world, ruled by a totalitarian regime led by President Nguema Mbasogo, yet the small African country has taken this important step forward for human rights. The last official execution was in 2014. However, the national government is accused of arbitrary detentions, disappearances, and torture, and the country remains under the control of an authoritarian regime.

(Andrea Ghilardi)

November 7: South Sudan, dozens of suspicious deaths in parliament. More than 50 deaths of members of the lower house of the Sudanese parliament have occurred since the transitional National Legislative Assembly, or so-called lower house of the national parliament, was reconstituted in August 2021. An average of about four fatalities each month, one death per week. As reported by the news site The City Review, this unusual number of deaths among the ranks of parliamentarians is causing deep concern for the entire parliament, which was also confirmed by the vice-chairman of the parliamentary committee on the affairs, ethics and integrity of members of parliament, Alier Samuel Ateny, who pointed out the major repercussions that these deaths have on the activities of the assembly and its related offices. Although most of the deceased were elderly people, missing due to heart attacks, the high number still raises suspicions. This is also because in several cases the death occurred without knowledge of any particular illness.

(Andrea Ghilardi)

October 10: Ethiopia, the government agrees to participate in negotiations with the Tigray rebels. Addis Ababa has announced that he has responded favorably to the invitation of the African Union to participate in peace talks with insurgents in the Tigray region. The date and the place of the negotiations have yet to be specified, which, according to the communication service of the Ethiopian government, would have been decided. A tweet from an exponent close to the Ethiopian Prime Minister tweeted, "The government of Ethiopia has accepted this invitation, in line with our principled position on the peaceful resolution of the conflict and the need for talks without preconditions." After a five-month truce, which had pushed the parties into peace negotiations, on 24 August, fighting resumed between the Ethiopian Federal Army, supported by forces from neighboring regions and troops from neighboring Eritrea, and the rebels of the northern autonomous region. From many observers, the conflict is seen as the clash between the attempt of Prime Minister Abiy to overcome the current ethnic federalism and the resistance of an ethnic group, precisely that of Tigrina, which, despite constituting only about 6% of the almost 120 million Ethiopians, is not resigned to a reduction in the political-economic hegemony that had exercised over the whole of Ethiopia for nearly three decades until 2018.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Andrea Ghilardi and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

November 17: Usa, Midterm elections. Senate to the Democrats, House to the GOP. After the victory of the Democrats in the Senate, the Republicans regained the House after four years, reaching the 218 seats necessary for a majority. However, it still can be considered a small majority: according to projections, the Republicans should win between 218 and 223 seats out of 435. President Biden will have to deal with a split Congress.

November 21: White House 2024: Trump announces renomination. Donald Trump has announced his re-nomination for the American presidency, for the nomination of the Republican party, from his headquarters in Mar-a-Lago in Florida. Up to now, no one had ever taken the field as a candidate for the White House so early, two full years before the appointment with the polls. "The rescue begins now, to make America great and glorious again," said the tycoon.

September 26: USA, status of strategic ally revoked from Afghanistan. Joe Biden has revoked Afghanistan's non-NATO "strategic ally" status. A measure announced last June. The special status was awarded to the country in 2012 by the then President Barack Obama, years during which Afghanistan received military assistance and training. Since the withdrawal of all US and NATO troops in the summer of 2012, coinciding with the return to power of the Taliban, Washington and the Atlantic Alliance had suspended all support in Kabul.

Federico Pani

LATIN AMERICA

October 30th: Brazil, Lula wins in the ballot. The second round of elections for the office of President was held on October 30 in Brazil: the clash was between the former leader of the PT - Workers' Party - Lula, and the current right-wing president Bolsonaro. Although the latest polls had shaken Lula's certainty of victory, the 77-year-old won with 50.9% of the votes. In his words immediately after the news all his happiness: "They tried to bury me alive, but I am reborn".

(Ludovica Costantini)

December 7: Peru, President Castillo is deposed and the institutional crisis begins. On December 7, 2022, a few hours before the session of the National Congress of Peru which was supposed to vote on the impeachment of the President, Castillo announced on national live the dissolution of the Congress, early elections together with a curfew. In a few hours, Peru fell into a vortex of institutional uncertainty: the Congress meets and deposes Castillo following his "self-coup", his place is filled by Dina Boluarte, vice president. Castillo is arrested and the first protests begin in the country, which to date have more than 50 deads and harsh clashes with the Armed Forces.

(Ludovica Costantini)

October 24: Colombia opens the dialogue with the last rebel group present in the country. The Colombian government and the biggest rebel group of the country, the National Liberation Army, announced that they decided to reestablish peace talks for the first time since 2018. The peace talks should begin in the first week of November, as established in Caracas, and it’s interesting to note that other countries like Venezuela, Cuba and Norway, will act as guarantors of the peace process. ELN (Ejercito de Liberación Nacional) was founded in 1960 by a group of students, catholic priests and leaders who were inspired by the Cuban revolution and after the peace agreement between FARC and the Colombian Government has remained the most important rebel group in the country.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Ludovica Costantini and Francesco Andrea Rossi

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

August 8: Sri Lanka, dialogue with the IMF to counter the financial crisis. The second round of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund would seem to lean in favor of the Asian country, seriously indebted due to poor economic policy choices, worsened by galloping inflation that has reduced the purchasing power of Sri Lankans to shreds. However, the financial question does not only concern Colombo, but it also affects Beijing. Specifically, China would be exposed for a fifth of Sri Lanka's total debt, due to the large number of investments in infrastructure. The port of Hambantota, leased since 2017 for 99 years, is an infrastructure of vital importance for Beijing and one of the central points of the Chinese Belt Road Initiative, in its maritime version. The Chinese presence in Sri Lanka is viewed with concern by other players in the Indo-Pacific such as Japan and India. The latter is trying to regain a role in the reconstruction of the economic and financial fabric of the island.

(Sara Oldani)

November 15-16: China, Xi Jinping’s meetings during the G20. The 17th meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) in Bali, Indonesia held last week tackled an agenda made out of three main pillars: sustainable energy transition, global health and digital transformation. Many of Xi’s meetings with other national leaders have captured the public and medias’ attention. Among them, the video framing the Chinese leader confronting the Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau over a leaked discussion from the previous days. Xi Jinping has also held a bilateral meeting with the French president Emmanuel Macron, during which he communicated China’s position regarding the Ukrainian crisis as one that calls for peace negotiations. Beijing’s leader has also expressed his hopes that Paris can offer a fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies.

(Laura Salvemini)

November 21: North Korea, new missile test off the coast of Japan. Pyongyang reportedly tested a second intercontinental ballistic missile in less than a month, according to Japanese and South Korean authorities. In relation to the analyses conducted on the missile's trajectory and the weight of a possible weapon carried, at a different angle, the missile could have reached a lower altitude including a range of almost 15,000 kilometers away, thus coming to pose a threat to the United States itself. It was precisely the latter's increased military support for Tokyo and Seoul that was sharply criticized by the North Korean regime, which in response had threatened "fierce military action" on Thursday.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Laura Salvemini, Davide Shahhosseini and Sara Oldani

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

March 16: Russia is no longer a member of the Council of Europe. On 16 March 2022, the Council of Europe decreed the exclusion of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. After a consultation with the Parliamentary Assembly, the Committee of Ministers, as part of the procedure initiated under Art. 8 of the Council of Europe Statute, ruled for the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the organization. However, Moscow officially withdrew 'independently', announcing its withdrawal before the Committee of Ministers' declaration on 15 March 2022. Russia also announced its intention to denounce the European Convention on Human Rights, effectively terminating the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights on its territory. On 13 October 2022, the organization's Parliamentary Assembly demanded all member states to 'declare the current Russian regime a terrorist regime'; the request passed almost unanimously. In November 2022, Putin formalized Russia's withdrawal from the organization by signing a decree to remove Ivan Soltanovsky as Moscow's permanent representative to the Council of Europe. Russia had joined the Council of Europe on 28 February 1996.

Spring 2022: Coronavirus, in 2022 several European countries removed restrictions. Despite the fact that Italy and other European countries were witnessing an increase in Covid-19 cases during the spring of 2022, due in part to the rapid circulation of the omicron subvariant BA.2, numerous EU states initiated the gradual lifting of restrictions as of the end of winter. In Italy, the Council of Ministers had set 31 March 2022 as the end of the state of emergency declared on 31 January 2020 and presented a decree for the gradual lifting of all measures to combat the spread of the virus. In 2022, the aim for many countries was to exit the emergency phase. As of the summer, the harsher restrictions had been gradually lifted in most European countries. However, in view of the resurgence of the virus in China at the end of 2022, Europe now aims to implement initiatives that will create a barrier to limit the Europe-wide impacts of the new wave of infections following the halt of the 'zero Covid' policy in China.

April, November 2022: NRP, first two installments paid by the European Union to Italy in 2022. As announced by President Ursula von der Leyen, on 13 April the European Commission paid the first installment of EUR 21 billion to Italy for the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. This decision has come following the positive assessment of the payment request, submitted by Italy in December 2022, certifying the achievement of the 2021 targets. Last November, the EU gave the go-ahead for the payment of the second installment, while in early 2023 the European Commission received Italy's request for the third installment of EUR 19 billion; it is now up to the Commission to assess Italy's achievement of the targets required for this third payment. It will also assess the work carried out in recent months by the Meloni government, elected President of the Council after 25 September 2022 elections. Among the new government’s objectives for 2023, there is making the use of these funds smoother and faster, and enhancing the collaboration between Italy and the EU in the NextGenerationEU sphere stronger.

Bianca Franzini

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

November 21: Ukraine, during the last weeks Russian bombings aimed at the country's energy resources. As anticipated during the past weeks, Russia has attacked, using bombings and drones, several infrastructures and energy centrals since last November, to disrupt the prolonging of the war for Ukraine. The last of these attacks happened on the 14th of January, having as objective some critical infrastructures in the Dniprovsky district, few kilometers away from the center of Kyiv. The attack damaged the district’s power network just for a few hours; however, it hit 18 private apartments in the surrounding area. Since these kinds of attacks have become more frequent, most of the countries supporting Ukraine has included generators within their aid packages. The last one of these packages was delivered the past 6th of January by UAE, including 1300 generators. The immediate inclusion of generators in aid packages allowed Ukraine to rapidly reconstruct the energy network heavily damaged by the Russian attacks of last November. Analyzing this Russian strategy, it seems that it did not reach the desired effects: major energy providers - Ukrenergo and DTEK – managed to repair their energy centers along the national territory while, following the damages inflicted to civilians, the international community still condemned the Russian aggression.

(Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti)

June, July 2022: North Macedonia, the challenge towards European integration. North Macedonia, despite being increasingly determined to join the European Union, continues to encounter obstacles in its integration. The blocks in continuing its journey towards becoming a Community country are due to the fact that the country does not recognize the Bulgarian minority, one of the most important at an ethnic level. Recently, the Macedonian Parliament approved the French proposal to include the Bulgarian minority in its constitution. Some Macedonian political parties opposed this decision, asking for the possibility of a referendum from their citizens.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Francesco Andrea Rossi and Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

1 November: Israel, the return of King Bibi. The right-wing coalition led by leader Benjamin Netanyahu achieved a decisive victory in the Israeli elections on November 1. But the real winners of this election round are Netanyahu's allies. In particular, the ultra-orthodox Shas party and the coalition of extremist parties, united under the electoral banner Religious Zionism, are advancing. The right-wing coalition obtained a total of 64 seats, thus securing a solid majority. The Liberal Party of Bibi's main opponent and current head of government, Yair Lapid, also increased its support, while its right-wing and left-wing allies suffered a sound electoral defeat. Labour, the electoral cartel of Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa'ar, and Lieberman's secular nationalist party lost some seats. The Islamists increase their support while one of the two Arab nationalist parties does not pass the threshold, as does the progressive Meretz party.

(Michele Magistretti)

June 30: Tunisia, constitutional draft has been published. On June 30, the draft of the new Tunisian Constitution was published in the Official Gazette, the result of "popular" consultations on the online platform as indicated by the current President of the Republic Kais Saied. The aforementioned draft will be examined by the citizens on 25 July through a referendum, which does not provide for a quorum and a subsequent phase if "no" prevails. In any case, this is an important step in Tunisian political history, as it would put on paper the new balance of powers, clearly unbalanced towards the President. The political, economic and social difficulties - whose scapegoat turns out to be the party of political Islam Ennahda - according to Saied and his supporters, can be resolved with the adoption of a presidential system, with a strong and decisive role of the President of the Republic who would appoint a head of government without the need to secure the confidence of Parliament. Furthermore, on the basis of the constitutional draft, the power of both the Parliament, flanked by a "national, regional and territorial Council", and the judiciary which would hold a mere "function", would be reduced. The risk of an authoritarian drift is in the air, but most Tunisians support the President as they believe that the system of democratic checks and balances of the 2014 Constitution has not worked.

(Sara Oldani)

November 20: Qatar, the 2022 World Cup opens. The opening ceremony of the 2022 World Cup was celebrated on Sunday, November 20 for the first time in history in a Middle-Eastern Arab country. The major football competition is a fundamental success for the small Islamic emirate which has increased its soft power regionally and internationally. However, critical issues have been identified regarding the standard of human rights in the country, the exploitation of migrant workers for building activities and the ban on the sale of alcohol in stadiums. Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani called the criticisms, mostly coming from politicians from Western countries, "hypocritical" and “worthless". Despite the demonization in progress - not considered as a priority during the signing of energy agreements with the emirate - 97% of the tickets have been sold and most of the buyers come from Europe. The boycott would not take into account some important reforms that have taken place in the country, such as the abolition of the kafala system according to which the employee could not change occupation without the authorization of the employer (with huge impacts on personal freedom).

(Sara Oldani)

Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

February 24th: Russian "special operation" in Ukraine begins. A few days after recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, Moscow initiated the so-called "Special Operation," as well as the incursion into Ukrainian territory of more than 150,000 troops. In the Kremlin's version, the war intervention was aimed at securing the Russian-speaking minority in the Donbass, the same, according to Moscow, which had become the target of a genocidal program conceived by political forces hostile to Russia. However, the encirclement of the Ukrainian capital and the attempt to occupy it reveal from the outset the true extent of the Kremlin's plans. The Russian objective, as can be seen in retrospect today, was not limited to securing control of the eastern regions, but aimed to overthrow the current Ukrainian political leadership in order to reintegrate the country into the Russian orbit. Ukrainian President Zelensky's decision not to abandon the country, together with financial and military support from NATO and the European Union, averted Kiev's defeat and allowed it to launch a counteroffensive, enabling it to regain more than 50 percent of its territories. To the difficulties encountered on the ground, Russia responded first with partial mobilization, recalling 300,000 reservists, and then with Putin's signing of protocols for the annexation of the òblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, placing the latter, de jure, under its nuclear umbrella. Zelensky's countermove to the annexations was the signing of an application for "accelerated" NATO membership; however, Washington, in order to avert an open confrontation with Moscow, took a very cautious stance toward Kiev's request, ruling out any sort of "fast track" to Alliance membership.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

January 2022. Wagner mercenaries settle in Mali. In the first months of 2022, the now-famous Wagner paramilitary company entered Mali. The Wagner group is an instrument of Russian foreign politics, often used in the past as an instrument to intervene in conflict areas such as Ukraine, Libya, and Syria. The mercenaries arrived after a period of high tension between the ruling military junta in Bamako and the French government. Starting from 2021, Emmanuel Macron considerably reduced the personnel of the Barkhane operation, active in Mali since 2012 to fight the jihadist revolt. Wagner's task would therefore consist of replacing France in the fight against Islamist groups. Western powers responded firmly to the news. In February, Paris announced the complete withdrawal of its troops within six months, which happened in November 2022. In the meantime, several European countries have abandoned the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA, now is at risk of not being renewed. Wagner’s presence in Mali is therefore part of a broader confrontation between the Russian Federation and Western countries, in an area of ​​the world such as the Sahel, historically under French influence.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Chiara Giovannoni: Human Rights

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Elisa Maggiore: Latin America

Federico Pani: North America

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Samuele Abrami: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa