Framing The World, CXXXXII Edition

Framing The World, CXXXXII Edition

Among the most relevant news covered in the 142nd edition of Framing the World are the tragic flooding in Valencia, the evolving conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Israel, law against UNRWA criminalizes humanitarian aid. On October 28, 2024, the Knesset approved a law that prohibits the activities of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in Israel, sparking international protests. Israel has criticized the agency, claiming that some of its employees were involved in the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The approval of a second measure also prohibits Israeli officials from collaborating with UNRWA, further compromising its operations. The international community has expressed deep concern, while the Palestinian presidency has condemned the law as a sign of fascism. The UNRWA, considered the "backbone" of humanitarian aid in Gaza, has described the measure as "scandalous."

Armenia, surveillance bill threatens privacy rights. The Armenian government has proposed a bill that mandates the installation of video surveillance systems throughout Yerevan, allowing police 24/7 access to live feeds and recordings. The bill, which passed its first parliamentary reading in June 2024, requires private entities to install cameras and intends to utilize artificial intelligence for monitoring. Critics argue that this widespread surveillance constitutes an unjustified intrusion into privacy and poses a threat to civil liberties. The proposal has faced backlash from various government bodies, including the Ministry of Justice and the Data Protection Agency, which warn that it could lead to "unlimited and continuous processing of personal data," violating individuals' rights.

Sofia Ena

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Spain, first among the advanced countries. Spain is set to surpass the U.S. as the fastest-growing advanced economy in 2024, with an expected growth rate of 2.7 %, driven by immigration, tourism, foreign investment and government spending. The IMF forecasts a 2.9% expansion, higher than the U.S., and about three times the European rate. Spain, the Eurozone's fourth-largest economy, stands out against a backdrop in which countries such as Germany and the Netherlands struggle to grow, while other southern economies, such as Greece, show good performance. Compared to 2019, the Iberian country records a 5.7% expansion, better than the eurozone, which stands at 4.2%. However, politicians from the opposition dispute that GDP per capita is growing more slowly than GDP, partly due to the entry of 700,000 immigrants in recent years, often in low-skilled and poorly paid jobs. In addition, the high cost of living and scarcity of affordable housing weigh on Spanish households.

Cars, Mercedes in trouble too. Mercedes-Benz announced a cost-cutting plan after reporting quarterly profits halved and sales declined in China and Europe. The auto division's profit margin fell to 4.7% in the third quarter from 12.4% a year earlier, while net profits fell to €1.7 billion as revenue fell 6.7 %. Sales in China fell 17% and in Germany 25%. Mercedes has cut its annual margin forecast twice in the past three months, in line with other European automakers. In particular, Mercedes saw a 31% drop in sales of electric vehicles, while sales of plug-in hybrids rose 10%, as the Chinese economic slowdown hit mostly the more luxurious (and more profitable for the brand) models, such as the S-Class. In the same days, Volvo and Volkswagen also revised their forecasts downward, while Renault is the only one to maintain, thus far, its financial targets.

US, the inflation data. The core index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the United States, the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator for measuring inflation, grew 0.3% in September, marking the largest monthly increase since April. Year-on-year, the index rose 2.7%, while overall inflation stood at 2.1%, the lowest level since early 2021 and close to the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending, net of inflation, rose 0.4%, supported by wage growth, while the savings rate fell to 4.6%, the lowest since 2023. In addition, the data show inflationary pressure on goods and services: in fact, prices of services, excluding housing and energy, came in up 0.3%, while prices of goods, excluding food and energy, only increased by 0.1%. These data, according to analysts, will not deter the Federal Reserve from opting for another interest rate cut on Nov. 7.

China, new measures on the way. The Chinese government is considering a plan worth more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to support the economy and manage local government debt, according to Reuters. The package, which could be approved in the coming days, includes 6 trillion yuan to be raised over three years to resolve the local governments' off-balance sheet debts, and 4 trillion yuan in bonds to purchase unused land and real estate. The plan could expand if Donald Trump wins the election, as economic challenges for China are expected to increase. The Politburo, which meets this week, is thus expected to approve President Xi Jinping's largest economic stimulus package since the post-pandemic period, and analysts expect it will also include measures to refinance local debt, a sovereign bond issue to inject capital into banks, and an additional trillion yuan to support consumption.

EU, inflation rises again. Eurozone inflation rose to an annual 2% in October, exceeding forecasts and reaching the European Central Bank's (ECB) target, strengthening the case for a gradual reduction in interest rates. Slowing energy cost reductions were a key factor, while core inflation remained unexpectedly stable at 2.7% and food prices rose faster than expected. These data play into the hands of those ECB members opposed to significant rate cuts to stimulate an ailing European economy that has yet to beat inflation, especially in the northern European economy and the service sector. Chair Lagarde also warned that inflation could rise in the coming months due to base effects and other risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine that could drive up energy costs, and Trump's promised tariffs.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Mozambique, social media access has been restricted for the second time in a week. According to the global internet watchdog NetBlocks, following calls for nationwide strikes by opposition leaders over a contentious presidential election. Tensions have escalated in Mozambique after the ruling Frelimo party, which has been in power for 49 years, won the October 9 election—a result that opposition parties and election observers claim was flawed.NetBlocks, a London-based organization monitoring internet disruptions, confirmed that social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, were restricted. This comes after an earlier internet blackout last Friday, the day after election results were announced and following a violent crackdown on protests.

Guinea, authorities dissolved dozens of political parties and placed two major opposition ones under observation late Monday, while the transitional government has yet to announce a date for elections.The West African country has been led by a military regime since soldiers ousted President Alpha Conde in 2021. The West African regional bloc known as ECOWAS has pushed for a return to civilian rule and elections are scheduled for 2025.The mass dissolution of 53 political parties and required observation of 54 others for three months is unprecedented in Guinea, which held its first democratic election in 2010 after decades of authoritarian rule. The Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization announced the moves based on an evaluation of all political parties begun in June. The evaluation was meant to “clean up the political chessboard,” according to the ministry.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Botswana: Historic power shift in elections. The ruling party in Botswana, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), suffered a historic defeat in the parliamentary elections, ending 58 years of political dominance. The opposition party, Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), led by lawyer Duma Boko, won the majority of seats in Parliament, securing 31 out of 61. Outgoing President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat and congratulated Boko on his victory, marking a significant change in the country's direction. This result reflects widespread dissatisfaction with the BDP, accused of failing to diversify the economy and mismanaging the diamond sector crisis, essential to the national economy.

Sudan: Guterres condemns unending humanitarian catastrophe. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the situation in Sudan as a "nightmare" of hunger, disease, and widespread ethnic violence, especially in the Darfur region. Addressing the Security Council, Guterres highlighted the atrocities faced by civilians, with thousands killed and widespread sexual violence cases reported. Meanwhile, an airstrike by Sudanese forces on a market in Khartoum resulted in 23 deaths and over 40 injuries. Since April 2023, the conflict between the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to a humanitarian catastrophe, displacing over 10 million people and increasing the risk of famine.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Aurelia Puliafito, Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, election focus: Kiev trembles awaiting the election. For Ukrainians, the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election could be a matter of life and death, because American’s donations of military aid throughout the whole war are that important to surpass those provided by all other allies put together. However, those funds are on the line: Donald Trump has made clear his desire to “end the war” and cut that spending, since he has repeatedly attempted to block those aid packages in Congress. On the other hand, a victory for Kamala Harris would probably present a more predictable counterpart than Trump, who would mainly maintain Joe Biden’s policy approach.

United States of America, election focus: the Arab American community. In 2004 and 2008 more than 85% of Arab American voters backed the Democrats, but today the matter is not that straightforward: some polls suggest Arab Americans could abandon the Democrats over the Biden administration’s support for Israel and look past Trump’s ban on travel from certain Muslim-majority countries, that he has vowed to reimpose if re-elected. At the same time, some community leaders are organizing to prevent a Donald Trump victory, warning about impacts in the Middle East and domestic issues, such as immigration, should the Republican candidate be re-elected. Although today it is not possible to assess Arabs as a coherent voting bloc, there is still a number who will be voting to try and “stop the war”, making them “foreign policy voters”.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

USA, Elections and the Border: Immigration Challenges Ahead of the Vote. The upcoming U.S. presidential elections will have a decisive impact on immigration policies and border management with Mexico. In recent years, the Biden administration has aimed to create a more humane and secure system, increasing legal pathways for migrants and asylum seekers. However, the southern border remains a critical issue, with rising numbers of irregular crossings and growing logistical challenges.

If Donald Trump were to return to the White House, he might reinstate restrictive measures like the “Remain in Mexico” program and new border limitations, aiming to drastically reduce irregular entries and prioritizing security. In contrast, a victory for Kamala Harris could mean a continuation of the current strategy, balancing border enforcement with a humanitarian approach and protecting asylum seekers' rights. Harris might also seek greater engagement with Central American countries, promoting development and stability projects in areas where migration flows originate.

However, this approach would require substantial resources and bipartisan support , difficult to secure in a highly polarized political climate.

(Caterina De Rosa)

Lorenzo Graziani and Caterina De Rosa

LATIN AMERICA

Brazil and Venezuela, the Venezuelan Issue Disrupts the BRICS Summit. The Venezuelan issue shook the BRICS Summit from October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia, where leaders discussed a possible expansion of the group. The most contentious case has been Venezuela. President Nicolás Maduro made a surprise appearance in Kazan after a long journey that avoided the airspace of countries hostile to his leadership. His highly contested re-election in late July has left a mark, even straining ties with former allies, like Brazilian President Lula da Silva, who has since distanced himself. Lula had to cancel his trip to Russia after a fall at home caused a "mild brain hemorrhage." He attended the summit via videoconference, firmly expressing his "no" to both Maduro's Venezuela and Ortega’s Nicaragua, thus vetoing their entry into the BRICS bloc.

Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

India and China completed the disengagement of their respective troops from the disputed Depsang and Demchok areas in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). On the sidelines of the 16th BRICS summit on 21 October, New Delhi and Beijing reached an understanding to manage the border disputes, culminating in an agreement that aims to quell four years of lingering tensions. Last week, the armed forces agreed on detailed modalities for joint patrols designed to restore order in long-disputed areas. The disengagement pact provides for the withdrawal of troops and infrastructure in the Depsang and Damchok areas, with the military being redeployed to positions occupied before April 2020. This significant step adds to previous disengagement in Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra and Hot Springs, marking further progress in the reduction of hostilities.

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Spain, floods in Valencia. The devastating floods that struck Valencia, caused by the meteorological phenomenon known as Dana, resulted in at least 158 deaths and an unspecified number of missing persons in less than 24 hours, between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, both in the city and in other regions of Spain. In a sign of mourning, flags have been flown at half-mast on all buildings of European institutions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed the EU's solidarity, stating in Spanish: “Madrid is not alone.” Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, emphasized the urgency of simplifying access to disaster relief funds, while the EU prepares to activate the Civil Protection Mechanism in response to a possible request from the Spanish government.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, investigation opened on Temu. The European Commission has launched an investigation into the Chinese e-commerce platform Temu, suspected of not complying with the new Digital Services Act (DSA). The investigation, which does not yet have a deadline, focuses on potentially illegal items such as drugs and toys and on loyalty mechanisms that use games to incentivise repeat purchases, possible sources of addiction. If Temu is found guilty, it could receive a fine of up to 6% of its annual turnover. Temu has stated its willingness to cooperate with European authorities and has pledged its commitment to comply with EU regulations. Within the framework of the DSA, Meta, Ali Express, TikTok and X are also currently under investigation.

EU, greenhouse gas emissions down 8.3 per cent in 2023. The 2024 Climate Action Progress Report shows that the EU's net greenhouse gas (Ghg) emissions fell by 8.3% in 2023 compared to 2022: this is the largest annual drop in decades, with the exception of 2020l, when emission cuts fell by 9.8%. EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said: ‘The EU is leading the way in the clean transition, with another year of strong greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2023. The EU now accounts for 6% of global emissions'. However, further changes are needed to reach the 2030, 2040 and 2050 targets, and in the run-up to Cop29, the Commission stated that the EU must continue its international efforts.

(Bianca Franzini)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Georgia, on October 26, 2024, elections were held to renew the Parliament. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, secured a parliamentary majority with 54% of the votes. Pro-European public opinion in Georgia fears that this victory will further distance the country from the European Union: although Georgian Dream claims to continue the EU accession process, the party is also known for its close ties with Russia and for initiatives that threaten human rights in the country, from press freedom to LGBTQ rights. The elections were followed by large-scale protests, as well as accusations of electoral fraud and interference by Russia, including from pro-European Georgian President Salomé Zurabishvili. The Georgian Central Election Commission conducted a partial recount of the votes, which confirmed the previously announced results. However, it may take weeks or months to verify any irregularities.

Ukraine, it is clear that, in recent weeks, the war has not been going well for Kyiv. In addition to losing territory, Ukraine is struggling to make up for the loss of soldiers, a problem that Russia does not seem to have. President Zelensky has called on Ukrainians abroad to return and support Ukraine and its defense industry. Meanwhile, 12,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia to fight alongside Moscow, and it is believed that some may already be in Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, Russia continues to attack civilian sites, such as a building bombed in Kharkiv on Thursday, October 31, killing a child. In Donetsk, Russian forces are advancing, having taken control of the town of Selydove and they are close to conquering Pokrovsk, a crucial logistical hub in the southeast of the country. Meanwhile, Russia is regaining territory in the Kursk region, where North Korean soldiers have been deployed.

Silvia Pasetto

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Lebanon, Hezbollah appoints its new leader. On October 29th, Hezbollah announced its new leader: it is Naim Qassem, 71 years old, a long-time representative and former deputy leader of the Party since 1991, for which he was also spokesperson and responsible for media relations, foreign as well as domestic. The Government of Israel, with a post on X, expressed its desire to eliminate him as quickly as possible with the following words: ‘His term in this position could be the shortest in the history of this terrorist organisation if he follows the footsteps of his predecessors Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine’. Finally, the post concludes by reiterating that the military solution is, according to the government, the only viable way to dismantle Hezbollah ‘as a military force’.

Israel, a senior Hezbollah officer captured in Lebanon. According to reports by some press agencies and newspapers, and as partly confirmed by the Minister of Transport in Beirut (Hezbollah's representative in the Government), the special forces of the Israeli Navy captured Imad Amhaz in a raid. He is one of the leading members of the military wing of the Party, in charge of maritime activities and captain of civilian ships. Ahmaz was in Batroun, a maritime locality north of Beirut: initially a Lebanese military source had told Afp that he did not know the identity of the kidnapped man, while Axios journalist Barack Ravid later confirmed the identity of the kidnapped man, confirming that ‘Israeli Navy Seals captured Imad Ahmaz for interrogation and to get information about Hezbollah's naval operations’.

(Matteo Francescucci)

Israel-Italy, hacking scandal: According to Italian police investigations, the Milan-based private investigation company Equalize obtained sensitive information about hundreds of politicians and celebrities through a hacking operation. The company then allegedly exchanged the confidential material with the Israeli secret services and the Vatican. According to media reports, the Israelis promised information about Qatargate and other useful information to Equalize's clients in return. Both the Vatican and the Israeli embassy declined to comment on the matter.

(Michele Magistretti)

Matteo Francescucci and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Pope New Guinea, government announces it will not attend UN climate conference. Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko has stated that the country will not take part in the next international climate conference organised by the United Nations, which will take place in Baku this year. According to Tkatchenko, the decision not to participate is linked to the fact that as long as the most polluting countries do not keep their commitments, climate conferences will continue to lose credibility. The island country's own government has indicated that it will attempt to conclude bilateral agreements with other states in the region, in the hope that these will have a greater impact on combating climate change.

Argentina, Foreign Minister dismissed. The decision by President Javier Milei to remove from office Minister Diana Mondino, who has been head of the foreign cabinet since 10 December 2023, comes after the South American country's UN delegation voted in favour of the resolution calling for the lifting of the US embargo against Cuba, which only Israel and the United States voted against. In Mondino's place, Milei appointed Gerardo Werthein, former ambassador to the United States.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East

Silvia Pasetto: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union