Framing The World, CXXXXIV Edition

Framing The World, CXXXXIV Edition

In the new issue of Framing we monitor the events of the last two weeks, from the tensions in the Middle East, between the escalation in Syria and the situation in Lebanon after the ceasefire, to the controversial results of COP29. Also, we report on the widespread fears over the tariffs announced by Donald Trump and the evolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

All this and much more in the latest issue of FtW!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Ukraine, Millions Left in the Cold. On November 28th, Russia launched a series of devastating attacks against Ukraine, specifically targeting critical infrastructure such as energy systems. The bombings caused significant damage, leaving over a million households without electricity. The apparent goal is to undermine Ukraine's ability to cope with the winter, depriving millions of people of heating. Attacking vital infrastructure like energy networks puts many lives at serious risk, particularly among the most vulnerable groups in society, such as the elderly, children, and hospitalized patients.

COP29, Funding Goal Will Worsen Inequality. Amnesty International has criticized the funding target set at COP29 as "insufficient," with wealthy nations committing to provide $300 billion per year for 10 years to support low-income countries in addressing the climate crisis. This amount falls far short of the $1.3 trillion annually demanded by many developing nations and climate justice activists. COP29 has once again prioritized economic interests over human rights, allowing fossil fuel industries to continue harming people. Additionally, the new regulations on carbon markets do not adequately protect human rights, while choosing Azerbaijan as the conference host limited activist participation and suppressed the right to protest.

Thailand, forced deportation of cambodian refugees to face persecution. On November 25, 2024, Thai authorities forcibly deported six Cambodian opposition activists and a child, exposing them to the risk of unjust trials and mistreatment upon their return to Cambodia. The group had been arrested the day before in Pathum Thani province for allegedly residing illegally in Thailand. Among them were five individuals recognized as refugees by the UNHCR, and one was awaiting refugee status determination. Human Rights Watch has condemned the deportation, accusing Thai authorities of violating international law by returning refugees to a country where they face persecution. In Cambodia, the activists are at risk of facing politically motivated charges, including “conspiracy,” with potential prison sentences of up to ten years.

Sofia Ena 

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, the government against Google. The Department of Justice (DoJ) has asked Google to sell the Chrome browser and, if necessary, the Android operating system, to limit its dominance of online search. The request follows a ruling that had found Google guilty of illegal monopoly, accusing it of spending billions on exclusive deals with Apple and other manufacturers. The DoJ is also proposing other drastic measures, such as banning Google from owning a browser or reinvesting in search-related products for five years, and requiring the company to share data on ads, its users and search indexes with competitors for 10 years. Google, which controls more than 90% of online searches, has called these proposals ‘disconcerting’ and harmful to consumers, arguing that the success of its browser and operating system is due to its quality. The case, part of a broader offensive against Big Tech, is likely to be prolonged with the accession of Donald Trump, who may review the antitrust approach, but whose position on the matter is unclear.

France, financial concerns. For the first time in history, French bond yields surpassed those of Greece, reflecting concerns about the fiscal and political stability of Michel Barnier's government. On Thursday, the yield on French 10-year government bonds briefly touched 3.02%, surpassing Greece's 3.01%, before dropping, indicating a change in the Eurozone countries' risk perception. Yet Finance Minister Antoine Armand rejected comparisons with Greece, emphasising France's economic and demographic superiority. However, the government, which lacks a majority, is struggling to pass a budget that includes €60 billion in taxes and spending cuts, and may have to resort to constitutional mechanisms to pass it, which would then allow the opposition to make a no-confidence motion.

Asia, South Korea cuts rates. The Bank of Korea surprisingly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3% to counter the economic slowdown and uncertainties related to Donald Trump's re-election. The institution also revised down its growth forecasts for 2024 (2.2%) and 2025 (1.9%), citing growing economic risks and the threat of high US trade tariffs, which would be a blow to South Korea, a heavily export-dependent country. Trump called the country a ‘money machine’ and demanded more contributions - up to $10 billion a year - for US troops stationed in the country. South Korea's ever-growing trade surplus with the US, which stood at $28.7 billion in the first six months of the year and is expected to surpass last year's record of $44.4 billion, could make the country one of the main targets of the next Trump administration's protectionist measures.

ECB, a warning on sovereign debt. The Eurozone risks a new debt crisis if it fails to stimulate growth, reduce public debt and tackle political uncertainty, warns the ECB in its Financial Stability Review. Vice-President Luis de Guindos pointed out that borrowing costs have risen for countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100%, including France, Italy and Spain, and forecasts that interest rates for these countries will rise sharply over the coming 10 years, putting pressure on government budgets. The inability to comply with EU fiscal rules and low productivity only increase fears of debt sustainability. The ECB also revised economic growth forecast for 2025 downwards to 1.3%, leaving the Eurozone further behind the US.

ECB, a Trump strategy. Christine Lagarde urged European countries to cooperate with Donald Trump on tariffs and buy more US products, warning that a global trade war could reduce global economic growth. In an interview, the ECB president stressed that the EU should ‘negotiate and not react’ to Trump's threats to apply 20% tariffs on all imports from Europe. Lagarde suggested a ‘chequebook strategy’, with purchases of liquefied natural gas and armaments from the US, as an alternative to a dangerous retaliatory strategy. European governments fear that tariffs could wipe out the EU's trade surplus with the US and push companies to shift production overseas. Lagarde also called a second Trump administration a ‘threat’ to Europe, pointing out that a reduction in global demand would also make it difficult to ‘make America great again’.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Cop29, bitter disappointment for African activists. Africa produces just 3.2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and is disproportionately affected by the climate crisis, according to the latest report of the World Meteorological Organisation: on average, African countries lose between 2 and 5 per cent of their GDP due to climate change, and many have to use 9 per cent of their budgets to combat it. Temperatures on the continent are rising faster than elsewhere and multi-year droughts are becoming more frequent, as are devastating floods (we published an article on this last week). For Mohamed Adow, director of the Kenyan environmental organisation Power shift Africa, ‘Cop29 was a disaster, a betrayal of the peoples and the planet, carried out by rich states that take climate change seriously only in words.’

Sudan, UN denounces an ‘epidemic’ of sexual violence. During a visit to the country on 25 November, UN humanitarian affairs chief Tom Fletcher sounded the alarm over the ‘epidemic of sexual violence’ in the country's ongoing civil war. In October, a UN fact-finding mission had found ‘sexual violence on a staggering scale’, including ‘rape, exploitation and abduction for sexual purposes, forced marriages and trafficking in persons’. Particularly affected are women from non-Arab communities in Darfur, the country's western region.

Aurelia Puliafito 

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, Biden on the ceasefire agreement. Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah have agreed on a deal for a ceasefire brokered by the United States and France. Just after Israel’s government approved the agreement, Biden said he had spoken to Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanon’s Prime Minister Mikati. “This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities” he said, “what is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again”. “Civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities” said Biden, while Lebanon’s army is expected to take control of the territories near the border with Israel to make sure that Hezbollah does not build new infrastructures there.

United States of America, the American embassy in Kiev closes due to air attack warnings. After Washington granted Kyiv the permission to use long-range missiles, enabling Ukraine to eventually strike within the Russian territory, and after the US has approved the provision of anti-personnel landmines, warnings of a “potential significant air attack” has reached the United States. For this reason, Washington had to temporarily close its embassy in Kyiv, advising its citizens to be prepared to move to a shelter in the event of an air-raid and saying that the alert applied to all of Ukraine. Although in the end there had been just some intermittent air raid alerts but no major incidents, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said that they will continue to monitor the situation.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

Canadian Economy and Trump: Trade Tensions Between Canada and the United States. Economic relations between Canada and the United States are under strain due to the possible imposition of tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump. These tariffs would target key sectors like steel, aluminum, and the automotive industry, increasing production costs in both Canada and the U.S. The Canadian economy faces serious risks, including job losses and reduced competitiveness in U.S. markets.In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and provincial leaders are working to de-escalate the situation, emphasizing adherence to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Experts suggest that such measures might serve Trump’s domestic political agenda but could harm long-standing economic ties between the two countries and destabilize North America’s integrated supply chains.

(Caterina De Rosa)

Caterina De Rosa and Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Mexico, clash with new president Trump’s tariffs. The President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has clarified the details of a conversation she had with US President-elect Donald Trump, after both leaders presented differing versions of the phone call. Trump claimed that Sheinbaum had "agreed to stop the flow of migration through Mexico and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." In her response, Sheinbaum explained that she had simply reaffirmed Mexico's position, which, she said, is “not about closing borders, but about fostering connections between governments and people.” This phone call took place after Trump announced on Monday that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico. Trump stated that the import duties would only be lifted once illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the United States had come to an end. This announcement was initially met with strong words from President Sheinbaum, who had earlier promised to retaliate if the US started a trade war.

Uruguay, plot twist at the Presidential elections. In a stunning turn of events, former history teacher and left-wing candidate Yamandú Orsi and protégé of José Mujica, has emerged victorious in Uruguay's presidential election, defeating Álvaro Delgado of the ruling conservative coalition by more than three percentage points in Sunday’s run-off. Delgado quickly conceded defeat, offering his congratulations to Orsi and the Broad Front coalition, which now returns to power after five years of conservative rule. This marks a historic comeback for the Broad Front, who governed Uruguay for 15 years before being ousted in 2020. With outgoing President Luis Lacalle Pou barred from running for a second consecutive term, Orsi's victory signals a powerful shift in the country's political landscape.

Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Pakistan, protests continue. Another anti-government protest took place in the capital of Pakistan. For four days Islamabad was a battleground due to the march of supporters of the imprisoned former prime minister, Imran Khan. The capital turned into a ‘container city’, as the authorities piled up more than 700 containers to block the main streets, while the streets were filled with thousands of police officers. The local police chief said that 954 protesters were arrested after violating the ban on public gatherings. Khan's detention has been fuelling political tensions across the country for months. His supporters say they will not stop protesting for his release on what they call unfounded charges, but the cycle of unrest to date has produced no tangible results.

South Korea, intruders in its airspace. South Korea scrambled its fighter jets after spotting Chinese and Russian military aircraft in its Defence Identification Zone. The South Korean military said it spotted five Chinese and six Russian military aircraft that entered the South Korean Air Defence Identification Zone (KADIZ), in the seas off the peninsula's east and south coasts, on Friday without warning. This is not the first time the two countries' military aircraft have been spotted in the KADIZ during their joint operations: similar incidents occurred at least twice, in June and December last year. This was the ninth joint strategic air patrol between the Russian and Chinese armies since 2019, and the Chinese Ministry of Defence said the patrols take place in the context of the annual bilateral military cooperation plan.

(Francesco Oppia)

Sri Lanka, doubts over Adani Ports project: Government assesses allegations. Adani Ports, India's leading private port operator, owns 51 percent of a new container terminal in Colombo, Sri Lanka, scheduled to open next year. However, the project is at the centre of an investigation after allegations of corruption against the group's founder, Gautam Adani. The finance and foreign ministries are looking into the matter and will submit a report before the government makes a final decision, said cabinet spokeswoman Nalinda Jayatissa. Meanwhile, Fitch downgraded Adani's rating of four dollar bonds from stable to negative, signalling concerns about its deteriorating financing capacity, access to credit and rising debt costs.

(Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi)

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi and Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU Commission approved for the next five years. On 27 November the new executive, chaired by Ursula von der Leyen and consisting of 26 commissioners, won the confidence of the European Parliament. However, the majority is weak: never before have there been so few votes in favour of a European executive (370 yes, 282 no and 36 abstentions). Ursula von der Leyen outlined the priorities of the new European Commission, focusing on economic recovery, competitiveness, investment and innovation to narrow the gap with the United States and China. Priorities also include support for Ukraine, defence policies, migration management, EU enlargement, climate and the rule of law. The new executive, shaped by a turn to the right, will take office on 1 December.

Elections in Romania. Far-right candidate Calin Georgescu surprisingly won the first round of the Romanian presidential elections with 22.9% of the vote, defying all predictions. The result generated protests in the country, with criticism of Georgescu's anti-EU and anti-NATO message. He will face Elena Lasconi, the centre-right leader, in the 8 December ballot, while candidates who were considered favourites such as Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion were excluded. Two minor candidates have requested the annulment of the vote for alleged irregularities, with the Constitutional Court to examine the allegations. Meanwhile, President Klaus Iohannis convened a meeting to discuss possible cyber threats to the second round of elections. The situation remains tense, with opposing demonstrations between Georgescu's supporters and opponents.

(Bianca Franzini)

Ireland, Fine Gael Loses Support as Sinn Fein Gains Momentum. On November 29, 2024, Ireland went to the polls to elect members of the lower house of Parliament, with the first results expected the following day. Polls show a tight race between Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, and Sinn Fein, each around 20%, with a coalition likely as no party is expected to win a majority. Prime Minister Simon Harris of Fine Gael has lost some of his initial lead after a controversial video went viral, but has attempted to boost his party’s image through social media. Sinn Fein, led by Mary Lou McDonald, experienced an early dip but has regained ground with a campaign focused on housing policy, positioning itself as the alternative to Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Georgia, New protests and clashes in Tbilisi. On the evening of Thursday, November 28, thousands of people took to the streets in Tbilisi to protest against the announcement by newly elected Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to suspend EU accession talks until 2028. Police responded with water cannons and tear gas. Kobakhidze's decision comes after the European Parliament's resolution passed on the same day, which does not recognize the results of last October's elections and calls for new elections to be held within a year. Previously, the European Parliament had already condemned certain Georgian laws deemed undemocratic, including the "foreign agents law," leading to the suspension of European funding for Georgia.

Ukraine, Up to a million people without electricity after Russian attacks

On Thursday, November 28, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, deploying approximately 100 drones and 90 missiles, including cluster bombs, which are banned under international law but have been widely used in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. According to statements by President Putin, the attacks were a response to the use of ATACMS missiles in Russia's Kursk region.

(Silvia Pasetto)

A Russian military delegation, arrived in North Korea. On Friday amidst growing global concerns about the strengthening ties between the two nations, arrived in the country. This visit comes after North Korea sent thousands of troops to Russia last month. According to the official Korean Central News Agency, during Friday's meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Minister Belousov reached a “significant consensus” on the importance of enhancing strategic cooperation between their countries. Their discussions focused on defending sovereignty, security interests, and principles of international justice in light of the increasingly unstable global security landscape. Kim emphasized that North Korea will steadfastly support Russia's policies in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity against the hegemonic strategies of “imperialists,” the KCNA reported. Later that day, Belousov also met with North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Chol. During an official dinner banquet, Belousov stated that strengthening the strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea is vital to protecting their national independence from the threats and oppressive actions of imperialist powers.

(Federico Cortese)

Silvia Pasetto and Federico Cortese

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Lebanon: The Current Situation following the ceasefire. On November 27, a ceasefire was formalized between Israel and Hezbollah, aiming to bring an end to months of hostilities that had escalated since October 8, 2023. Mediated by the United States and France, the agreement stipulates the phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory within a 60-day timeframe. Simultaneously, up to 5,000 Lebanese troops will be deployed in the southern region under U.S. supervision to mitigate the risk of further escalations. Hezbollah is required to retreat its forces north of the Litani River, in compliance with United Nations Resolution 1701. Despite the diplomatic progress, the situation on the ground remains precarious. Armed clashes along the border continue, accompanied by mutual accusations of ceasefire violations. Additionally, Israel has strongly opposed the return of displaced people to areas affected by the conflict. While the ceasefire represents a critical step toward regional stability, its durability over the long term remains uncertain.

(Matteo Francescucci)

Syria, the conflict flares up again: the coalition of jihadist and Islamist forces of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) broke through the front line in the Idlib governorate and occupied Aleppo within days. Government forces and their allied pro-Iranian militias retreated towards the city of Hama. President Assad has returned to Damascus from Moscow and has received diplomatic support from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. The situation is extremely volatile and uncertain, the next developments will depend on the organisation of the counter-offensive of the loyalist forces and the manoeuvres of the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian National Army, a coalition of mercenary militias backed by Ankara.

(Michele Magistretti)

Matteo Francescucci and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Chad, defence and security agreement with France suspended. On Thursday, the Chadian Foreign Ministry released a communiqué announcing the termination of the cooperation agreement with France on security and defence - to date, there are around 1,000 French military personnel stationed on Chadian territory -. According to the N'Djamena government, the decision to renounce military support from the former motherland is aimed at consolidating the country's full sovereignty, more than 60 years after independence. For the Elysée, the waiver of its military commitment in Chad would prefigure a new strategic backlash in the Sahel after the forced withdrawal of its contingents from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, following military coups and growing hostility from the local populations themselves.

Venezuela, US sanctions 21 government officials. The US Treasury Department announced that it has imposed a series of measures, including economic sanctions and bans on entry to the United States, against 21 officials of Nicolas Maduro's government. These include the head of Venezuela's prison administration department, the director of an intelligence agency and the head of the president's office, who join the president and vice president of the Supreme Court who were sanctioned in the previous package. These measures are linked to the harsh repression put in place by the Venezuelan authorities following the protests that broke out in the aftermath of Maduro's re-election, which, according to the opposition, took place with the manipulation of millions of votes.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Myanmar: arrest warrant requested for crimes against the Rohingya. The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has requested an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's military leader, accused of crimes against humanity against the Rohingya. The investigation focuses on the 2016-2017 violence in Rakhine state, including deportations, persecution, and atrocities like mass killings and rape. The initiative is based on witness testimonies, documents, and international support. The final decision lies with the ICC judges, but the message is clear: no one is above the law.

France and the UK revive discussions on sending troops to Ukraine. As the Ukraine war escalates, talks have resumed about sending Western troops to Ukraine, particularly in light of a potential U.S. withdrawal under a new Trump administration. France and the UK are exploring ways to deepen their military cooperation in Europe. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot emphasized that no options, including sending French troops, are being ruled out. The idea of deploying French forces or private contractors has been under consideration for months, though no final decisions have been made. These developments follow recent discussions between French and UK officials.

(Gonzalo Pereyra)

Davide Shahhosseini and Gonzalo Pereyra

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East

Silvia Pasetto: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union