Greater Bay Area: la scommessa di Pechino tra boom tecnologico e rallentamento regionale

Translated by Federica Conti

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a macro-region comprising the two special administrative regions, Hong Kong and Macao, and nine cities in the Pearl River Delta within the Guangdong region. Covering 1% of China’s land area and home to 5% of its population, this macro-region receives particular attention from the Chinese government due to its key role in economic development. Around 2019-2020, the GBA accounted for 12% of GDP, 37% of Chinese exports, and 25% of total economic output.

The Xi administration has chosen this area as a testing ground for reforms and innovative solutions due to its economic and strategic importance. The decision to invest here mirrors the establishment of the Special Economic Zones of the 80s, when the State began moving towards liberalisation and reform. This parallel is both conceptual and territorial. Guangdong (and Fujian) hosted the first cities opened to the world. Today, the pioneering GBA is regarded by the government as a new laboratory for development, much like the original SEZs. However, simply designating the area as a priority was not enough. The material, administrative, and political conditions also had to be created for true integration to take shape.

To make this possible, it was necessary at first to create more integration and interconnection among cities. This is the reason why, in 2017, the Framework Agreement on Deepening Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Cooperation in the Development of the Greater Bay Area was signed, proclaiming that these goals would be achieved through the construction of infrastructures and the institution of mechanisms of coordination. One of the first goals reached was, indeed, the construction in 2018 of a bridge to connect the two special administrative regions that crosses Zhuhai.

Secondly, a development plan was drawn up, culminating in the promulgation of the Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area on 18 February 2019. Although somewhat vague, the plan consists of a series of policies covering various sectors: from technological innovation to finance, from tourism to culture, and from law to education. The plan is unique because a specific role has been assigned to each area: Shenzhen as a technology hub, Dongguan as a pioneer in robotics, Hong Kong as a financial and commercial centre, and Macao as a tourist destination.

The result was not only to create a plan focused on the economic development or to create the conditions for the development of an ideal area where to live, work and travel, but also a broader project aiming at bringing the two Special Administrative Regions closer to the motherland, affirming and emphasising a key political principle, that is “one country, two systems”.

The Guangdong region deserves particular attention: despite having held the national lead in gross national product for 37 consecutive years, by 2025 it had slipped to 29th place out of 31 provinces. Regional GDP growth stood at just 3.9%, well below the average for the previous four years (4.7%) and, above all, well below the 5% growth targets set at the national level. The local economy, as Governor Meng acknowledged, is facing difficulties both externally and internally. Firstly, Guangdong, which is heavily export-oriented and characterised by a property sector that accounted for a significant portion of its growth, was among the regions hardest hit by the trade war on the one hand and the property sector crisis on the other. Furthermore, some investment has been diverted to other, less developed provinces, such as Tibet, Guizhou, and Yunnan, which, in fact, recorded the highest growth rates last year. However, this slowdown should be seen as the result of a structural transition: Guangdong is transforming its economic model, moving further away from a model based on hyper-investment towards an economy founded on high-tech manufacturing and domestic consumption. This process inevitably involves a period of slowdown.

In 2026, Guangdong's priority is to strengthen a modern industrial system, renovating traditional productions and accelerating the development of emerging and future industries. To reinforce the manufacturing sector and accelerate the process of technological independence, it is fundamental to increase investments in research and development. Therefore, openness and innovation will lead the country towards the development of the region this year, reaffirming Guangdong's position, as well as the whole GBA's position, as a laboratory of experimentation for the country’s economic future.

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