NATO Countries Prepare for June Summit

Translated by Erica Cervellera

In preparation for the NATO summit scheduled for June 24 and 25 in The Hague, Netherlands, members of the Atlantic Alliance are set to announce a historic increase in military spending. The goal discussed in recent weeks, and strongly advocated by the United States, is to raise defense and security spending to 5% of GDP. This marks a sharp shift from the target set in 2014, when NATO countries pledged to allocate at least 2% of GDP to military expenditure by 2024 in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea.

With less than a month to go before the summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the former Dutch Prime Minister who has led the Alliance since last October, is working to strengthen support for the new threshold. The plan proposes that 3.5% of GDP be allocated to strictly military spending, while the remaining 1.5% would include investments in adjacent but crucial security sectors such as cybersecurity, protection of critical infrastructure, and defense industry supply chains. The new target, which will be submitted for approval at the summit, responds to pressure from the new U.S. administration, particularly from President Donald Trump.

Since his re-election, Trump has resumed harshly criticizing European allies, accusing them of benefiting from U.S. protection without contributing fairly. According to the Washington Post, the U.S. president has suggested the possibility of a “selective disengagement” of the United States from NATO if other member countries do not increase their contributions. Trump has also reiterated the idea of conditioning the automatic defense provision outlined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty—a principle that has never been questioned before and which forms the very basis of the Alliance.

Reactions in Europe have been mixed, with governments such as those of Poland and the Baltic States, which are in favor of increased spending, seeing it as a necessary reinforcement against a progressively more aggressive Russia. Others, like Spain and Italy, are concerned about the impact such a measure could have on public finances. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed cautious support for the plan, but emphasized that “such ambition also requires profound reform of the European military procurement system.” Merz also issued a direct warning to certain U.S. lawmakers, accusing them of underestimating the extent of Russian rearmament and reiterating the need for a unified approach, given Russia's alliances with actors like Iran and North Korea.

Recent data shows that currently, 23 of NATO's 32 member countries have reached or exceeded the 2% threshold. However, moving to 5% would more than double, on average, the military spending of many governments. This is not just about finding new resources; in fact, a study published by the Financial Times highlights that Europe, despite spending over $3.15 trillion on defense in the last decade, continues to show significant inefficiencies in fund management and operational integration. These shortcomings were also evident in support for Ukraine, where, due to a lack of standardization, the Alliance has struggled to ensure a constant flow of ammunition, equipment, and advanced defensive systems.

The Hague summit takes place in a context marked by the war in Ukraine and shifting dynamics between the United States, China, and the Middle East. Another delicate topic is the relationship with Kiev and the participation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which remains uncertain. The prospect of his official attendance is met with coldness by some partners, especially because it could further sour relations with Trump. The latter, even during his campaign, described the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as “a local dispute” and compared the two countries to “children fighting in a playground.”

Meanwhile, behind closed doors in Brussels and European capitals, private discussions are intensifying to find a balance between the urgency of responding to threats and the need to avoid excessive militarization of economic policies.

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