The Caucasus: a complex strategic geometry

Translated by Silvia Toro

Despite being a region that is often ignored by the majority of traditional media, the Caucasus actually plays a key role in the strategic thinking of the Old Continent’s leaders. This region, which resembles a jigsaw puzzle of history, ethnic groups, and religions, has experienced important changes in the recent period.

Let’s see what the latest developments are and what consequences the regional actors and Western countries can expect.

An asymmetric tripolarism in transition

n the first twenty years of the new millennium, two of the three countries nestled between the Caucasus Mountains have forged strong ties with Europe and the United States.

Initially, Georgia tried to get closer to the West, but it came at the cost of facing the Russian imperial revisionism. The absorption process was halted twice, the first time for exogenous reasons and the second one because of domestic political changes. The 2008 Russian attack froze the military status quo between Tbilisi and the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which became de facto Russian protectorates. Despite the rhetoric of some Westerners, this diplomatic-military stalemate has in fact frozen the country's possible entry into the Atlantic Alliance. Subsequently, the 2012 election of the Georgian Dream party has gradually changed Tbilisi’s strategic positioning. While glancing towards the West for the economic opportunities that the European Union could offer, seeking and obtaining the candidate status, it ended up creating a stronger bond with Moscow, especially through the party’s leader, the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Recent laws created to ward off foreign influence and the not transparent manner in which the 2024 elections were held shows a further slide toward a hybrid regime in Georgia, which is likely to be more repressive and closer to Russia.

On the other mountainside, Azerbaijan, led by dictator Aliyev has gradually opted for a multivectoral strategy, playing at more tables and changing its attitude toward its Russian neighbor. Even thanks to strong economic and commercial bonds with European states and to the pipeline network that supplies the continent with its gas, it managed to create a new diplomatic partnership with Moscow, attempting to isolate its opponent, Armenia.

Despite being highly secularized and laicized if compared to its Turkish ally and neighbor Iran, the Baku regime is among the most repressive and authoritarian in the Caucasus. The long-term goal of the Azerbaijani leadership has always been to regain the territories of the Armenian Separatist Republic, which were lost during the Nagorno-Karabakh war in the 1990s. After two military campaigns, the first in 2020 and the second in 2023, Baku managed to end the Republic of Artsakh and reintegrate its territories into the Republic of Azerbaijan. At the same time, fearing persecution and discrimination, most Armenian residents left the country. This fact caused a de facto ethnic cleansing of the Armenian ethnicity. In this context, Azerbaijan managed to disrupt the alliance between Russia and Armenia, weakening Yerevan. Now it is left without its “godfather” on one side and with the immobility or lack of interest from the Euro-American on the other.

Even though Armenia has better democratic credentials than its neighbors, it lacks resources and strategic importance. As a result, Armenia seems condemned to irrelevance and subordination when confronted with Azerbaijan. Despite rhetorical speeches about human rights and democratic values, Western countries seem to favor a relationship with the Republic of Azerbaijan for realpolitik reasons, namely energy supply and its deterrent function against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

However, Tbilisi and Baku appear to be on the way to find a strategic realignment, wishing to find a new way to interact with Moscow, as they are unwilling to sacrifice their bond with Russia for a Western alliance. The risk that its allies, particularly the Western ones, are taking is to jeopardize their regional influence because of their energetic dependence. As Tbilisi moves further from the West and Baku becomes more autonomous, European countries need to find a new way to interact with both countries to avoid an imbalanced relationship that might be disadvantageous for them.

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