Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro
Since the early days of the war, Russia has allowed convicted individuals and prisoners to be recruited as volunteers for the army. Until recently, these volunteers were rewarded with the cancellation of their sentences, provided they fought in Ukraine for at least six months. At the end of the period, they could regain their freedom and reintegrate into society. Now, however, the situation has changed. Volunteer prisoners are now required to remain in the army until the end of the so-called “special military operation.” Early release is only considered in cases of exceptional merit, reaching the age limit, or sustaining serious injuries.
Clearly, even this measure has not been sufficient. With the opening of a new front in Russia’s Kursk region following the occupation of some areas by Ukrainian forces, and the recent Russian advances in Donbas, the Russian army is in urgent need of reinforcements. Despite the difficulty of obtaining accurate data on Russian military casualties, in July, the independent Russian newspaper Meduza estimated that around 120,000 Russian soldiers had died since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
After several days of speculation—during which rumors spread that Putin might launch another general mobilization campaign—on September 24, the Duma, the low house of the Russian Parliament, approved a new law allowing the mobilization of people awaiting trial. If they agree to fight, all charges against them would be dropped. This law officially came into effect on October 2, following Putin’s signature.
This law differs from the previous because it allows individuals awaiting trial or currently on trial to join the army at any stage of the judicial process—even before receiving a conviction. In other words, suspects accused of serious crimes could avoid formal sentencing at any time if they agree to sign a military service contract with the Ministry of Defense. While many of them may voluntarily choose to enlist, this law raised further concerns about human rights violations. There is a risk that people could be coerced into joining the army, pressured by judicial authorities, or subjected to worsening prison conditions to push them into military service.
This maneuver enables Moscow to compensate for its shortage of soldiers without resorting to a general mobilization, as the Kremlin is fully aware that such a move could have severe consequences on public opinion. A new wave of mobilization would be widely unpopular among families, who would see their fathers and sons forced to go to the front lines. There is also precedent for such public discontent: the partial military mobilization of reservists in September 2022 sparked protests and prompted many eligible for conscription to flee abroad. A study conducted in Russia between May 23 and June 2, 2024, by the independent research group Russian Field found that more than half of respondents opposed a new wave of mobilization. Another important factor is the salary. Military pay is significantly higher that the average civilian wage, which is why many choose to enlist voluntarily. But is the financial incentive really worth the risk?
On top of that, this prolonged war is creating serious social security issues. Returning to the Kremlin’s decision to extend military recruitment to convicted individuals and those awaiting trial, it is important to remember that, even though early discharge is still not officially allowed, the first volunteers who joined the army have already returned home. This highlights a growing problem in Russian society: the reintegration of individuals deeply traumatized by their experience on the front lines. Following the return of demobilized soldiers, crime rates have increased. In some cases, these individuals are former convicts who, after surviving six months of war, have the right to reintegrate into society with a clean record. Others are already unstable individuals who have returned from war with worsened psychological conditions.
According to research by the independent online newspaper Verstka, more than 200 people have already been killed by veterans of the war in Ukraine, with many more at risk. Former convicts are responsible for the majority of violent crimes, including homicide victims and survivors of violent assaults live in fear, knowing that the perpetrators of these crimes may never be incarcerated and could eventually return to Russia—whether due to military honors, reaching the age limit, or becoming unfit for combat.
With declining social security, rising crime rates, and the looming threat of another general mobilization, one must ask: how much longer can this state of apathy among Russians persist? Many accuse the Russian people of not doing enough to end the war and of being indifferent to the future of their nation.
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