American gas passes through Athens: Greece attempts to redraw the European energy map

Translated by Mariateresa Tauro

The new gas frontier: Greece’s gamble

There is one factor that makes the issue of American gas in Greece more relevant than ever: while the European Union is discussing how to permanently shut off the Russian tap by 2027, Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou is in Washington for a series of meetings that go far beyond diplomatic protocol. Public statements on transatlantic cooperation in LNG, participation in the Gas Security Summit, meetings with members of the administration and Congress: the trip, which ends tomorrow, is the operational translation of a strategy that Athens has been pursuing for years but which today seeks definitive political consecration.

Greece is not just asking for more supplies. It is proposing a new energy geography for South-Eastern Europe, in which the Eastern Mediterranean becomes a privileged entry point for US liquefied natural gas destined for the Balkans and, in the future, Ukraine. In a context where Russia's share has fallen from 40% in 2021 to around 11% in 2024, the void left by Moscow is not just a question of volume: it is a question of strategic architecture. And it is precisely this architecture that Athens is attempting to influence.

From the trauma of 2022 to the construction of the Vertical Corridor

To understand the scale of Greece's gamble, we need to go back to 2022, when the large-scale invasion of Ukraine transformed the European gas market into a geopolitical theatre. The use of US LNG, initially perceived as an emergency solution to avoid blackouts and rationing, has gradually consolidated to account for almost 60% of European liquefied gas imports. What appeared to be a temporary fix has become a structural component of the energy mix.

However, Greece did not arrive unprepared for this transition. Even before the war, it had invested in diversifying routes, starting with the TAP, operational since 2020, which connects the Greek-Turkish border to Italy via Albania and the Adriatic, and the Greece-Bulgaria interconnector, which has strengthened regional integration. The expansion of the Revithoussa terminal has further increased its capacity to receive LNG cargoes, many of which come from the United States.

However, the decisive factor is the so-called Vertical Corridor, a south-north network connecting Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine. It reverses a logic that, for decades, had seen gas flow from northern Europe to the Mediterranean along routes dominated by Russia. Until 2022, south-eastern Europe was considered peripheral to the continent's major energy hubs, but today, Athens is trying to overturn this perception by presenting itself as an essential hub for the security of the area.

The figures speak for themselves: in 2019, Greece imported around 6-7 billion cubic metres of gas, almost entirely for domestic consumption; in 2024, imports reached 17 billion, of which around 11 billion were re-exported to neighbouring countries. The transformation from a final market to a transit hub is already underway, at least in terms of infrastructure.

The axis with Kyiv and the politicisation of gas

The geopolitical dimension of Greece's strategy became even more apparent on 16th November 2025, when Athens and Kyiv signed an agreement to facilitate the import of US LNG to Ukraine via the Vertical Corridor. In the presence of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the agreement between DEPA Commercial and Naftogaz formalised Greece's involvement in the US plan to completely replace Russian gas.

The agreement has concrete economic value – nearly €2 billion in imports needed to compensate for Ukrainian production losses – but above all, it has political significance. Papastavrou insisted that gas markets cannot be considered neutral in times of war, since every alternative route contributes to reducing Russia's energy leverage. From this perspective, the Vertical Corridor is not simply a commercial infrastructure, but a collective security infrastructure.

This narrative is consistent with Greece's position in support of Ukraine and with its attempt to anchor its energy choices within the broader Euro-Atlantic framework, reinforced by offshore exploration agreements involving Chevron and Exxon Mobil. However, it is precisely this strong politicisation of the energy dossier that highlights the gap between strategic ambition and market dynamics.

The numbers prove it: between political enthusiasm and commercial caution

While the political dimension appears solid, the commercial one still shows signs of fragility. Auctions for capacity booking along the Vertical Corridor have attracted limited interest, indicating that operators remain cautious. The reasons are structural: US LNG is generally more expensive than pre-war Russian gas; cumulative transit tariffs along the Balkan route have a significant impact on the final price; demand in the countries crossed is not yet stable enough to justify long-term commitments.

Added to this are regulatory and political factors, including uncertainty in transatlantic relations and the need for greater regulatory alignment at the European level to make the route fully competitive. The result is a situation in which Greece has built the infrastructure and defined the strategy, but still needs to consolidate its economic sustainability.

This is where we are now, with Papastavrou in Washington reiterating that diversification is no longer a matter of flexibility, but rather a strategic necessity. Greece claims to have transformed its geography into geopolitical leverage, but it knows that this transformation will have to be accompanied by clearer signals from the market and European institutions.

Greece’s gamble

Papastavrou's visit to Washington, which is coming to an end as we speak, is therefore more than just a diplomatic agenda: it is a political test. Greece wants to demonstrate that it has transformed its geography into geopolitical power, positioning itself as an essential hub between the United States and South-Eastern Europe.

But the fundamental question remains unanswered. Is the Vertical Corridor an infrastructure destined to consolidate with the ban on Russian gas in 2027, or is it an investment made in anticipation of a demand that does not exist yet?

Athens has clearly chosen the Western camp and has consistently linked energy and security. However, there is room for uncertainty between strategic ambition and economic sustainability. While diversification is a geopolitical necessity, its translation into a stable market model is not yet guaranteed. And it is on this ridge – between diplomatic news and the reality of numbers – that Greece's gamble is being played out today.

Copyright © 2026 - Mondo Internazionale APS - Tutti i diritti riservati