The Global Combat Air Programme: Europe and the Indo-Pacific Join Forces to Shape the Future of Defence

Translated by Caterina Stella,

In December 2022, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom announced the launch of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a joint initiative to develop a new generation combat air system, scheduled to enter service from 2035.

Four years after its launch, the programme entered a more concrete phase in 2026, marked by the awarding of new contracts for the aircraft’s development and Canada’s participation as its first Observer Nation. These two developments demonstrate how GCAP is gradually expanding its international reach.

The GCAP Programme originated from the merging of the UK’s Tempest program - in which Italy was also involved - and Japan’s F-X project. The convergence of these two initiatives forged an unprecedented form of cooperation between Europe and the Indo-Pacific, built on shared industrial, technological, and strategic expertise in one of the most advanced sectors of defence.

What makes the programme particularly significant is the composition of its partnership. While the three nations belong to different geographic and strategic contexts, in recent years they have come to share an increasingly similar perception of shifts in the international security landscape. The war in Ukraine, growing competition among major powers and the evolving threats in the Indo-Pacific have helped bring European and Asian strategic interests and priorities closer together.

Therefore, GCAP fits into a broader process of alignment between Europe and East Asia. For Italy and the UK, it represents a means of preserving advanced industrial expertise and reinforcing their roles in the development of future air-combat capabilities. For Japan, however, the programme is part of a more profound transformation of its security policy.

Japan and the Transformation of its Defence Strategy

In 2022, Tokyo adopted a new National Security Strategy, alongside the revision to its defence strategy and military build-up programme. The new direction aims to a significant increase in defence spending, the development of counterstrike capabilities, and deeper cooperation with like-minded partner nations. This represents a major shift for a country whose defence posture, since the end of World War II, has been heavily shaped by the pacifist principles enshrined in its Constitution and by its alliance with the United States. Today, this framework is facing a profoundly different regional environment. The growth of China's military power, rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and North Korea's nuclear and missile programs have heightened Japan's sense of vulnerability, encouraging Tokyo to reinforce its defence posture.

It is against this backdrop that GCAP takes on broader significance. The decision to develop the future combat air system alongside Italy and the UK signals Tokyo's intent to broaden its security relationships beyond its traditional tie with Washington. While the US alliance remains central, Japan is bolstering it with a more diversified network of partnerships with European players.

In 2026, the United Kingdom and Japan described Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security as closely interconnected, identifying GCAP as one of the mechanisms through which to deepen industrial and technological cooperation when it comes to defence. In this respect, the programme demonstrates how security relations between Europe and East Asia are becoming increasingly tangible, grounded in shared strategic interests and long-term partnership.

Europe and Japan: An Increasingly Close Strategic Relationship

The progressive alignment between Europe and Japan is also reflected at the institutional level. In November 2024, the European Union and Tokyo signed a Security and Defence Partnership, expanding a relationship that had long centred primarily on trade and economic issues. The agreement broadened cooperation into areas such as maritime and space security, cybersecurity, countering hybrid threats, and conflict prevention.

This process continued in 2026 with the first EU-Japan Defence Industry Dialogue, aimed at strengthening their respective industrial bases and the resilience of defence supply chains. The dialogue reflects growing attention to the need to preserve strategic technological capabilities and reduce vulnerabilities arising from external dependencies.

GCAP fits into this broader evolution, while remaining a trilateral programme developed outside the institutional framework of the European Union. Italy’s involvement, however, creates a direct link to the wider European debate on the future of defence and the continent's ability to preserve advanced technological expertise amid increasingly intense global competition.

Cooperation with Tokyo also demonstrates how the pursuit of greater European strategic capacity can coexist with partnerships outside the EU. In a sector defined by staggering costs, rapid innovation and intense technological competition, cooperating with partners like Japan offers an opportunity to pool expertise and develop industrial ties that could shape the defence landscape for decades to come.

From this perspective, GCAP takes on a significance that goes beyond the future aircraft itself: it becomes a reflection of an expanding network of strategic relationships, where industrial cooperation helps cement political and security ties between players from different regions.

A New Security Geography

GCAP demonstrates how defence cooperation is taking on an increasingly interregional dimension. Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan’s decision to jointly invest in developing a system intended to operate for decades reflects a broader transformation in international strategic relations - one in which technology, industry and security are becoming increasingly intertwined.

The programme's significance also lies in its ability to create lasting ties between countries from distinct geographical regions but share common needs in terms of innovation, deterrence, and industrial resilience. In this regard, GCAP suggests that future defence partnerships may increasingly be built around complementary capabilities and shared strategic interests.

The programme thus carries weight far beyond the dimension of military aviation. Cooperation between Europe and Japan is becoming part of a broader redefining of international security relations, one in which the distinction between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific areas is becoming progressively less rigid. Thus, GCAP stands as one of the most tangible examples of this evolution, offering a useful lens through which to understand how strategic partnerships may unfold over the coming decades.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2026