An analysis of the role of the Gulf in the new Middle East chaos

Translated by Irene Cecchi

The new conflict between Israel and Hamas caused an upheaval of the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. Every regional stakeholder, both governmental and not, took a different approach trying to mediate between its own primary interests, the internal priorities and the management of the new conflict hotbed.

Let’s see how the main countries of the Arabian Peninsula are handling the situation.

In between prudence and diplomatic activism

For many regional stakeholders, the conflict that broke out in autumn 2023 implicated the need to re-adjust their foreign policy. The Arab Countries of the Gulf had to face the outbreak of various hotbeds in Mesopotamia till the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The conflict between the Palestinian terrorist group and the Jewish government directly involved also the countries nearby, like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

The Gulf monarchies, despite firmly controlling the information diffusion and the cultural production, have to remain wary and conscious of the pro-palestinian sentiment of their population. This is why, countries like the United Arab Emirates, although condemning Israel conduct, decided not to stop the relations with the Jewish Country, or like Qatar that didn’t take a stand and preferred to mediate. In the middle there is the big Saudi Arabia, hovering between the will to find a modus vivendi with Israel and the will to preserve the currently ease status quo with Islamic Republic of Iran, supporter of Hamas, Hezbollah and other Shiite militia in the Siraq area.

The Arab Countries of the Gulf want to maintain a special relationship with Washington but, at the same time, don’t exclude new cooperations with Beijing and Moscow. The US not supporting them after the attacks on the Saudi Aramco refineries in Abqaiq and Khurais in 2019 and the subsequent troops withdrawal from Afghanistan preoccupied Riad and Abu Dhabi, making them doubt about the US commitment to be the security provider in the region.

These are the reasons why the Gulf monarchies started a de-escalatory process with the Islamic Republic of Iran, thanks to Chinese mediation. But after the Tehran attacks against Israel, passing through Iran and Syria’s airspace, they got worried that the Persian power may be a revisionist that could jeopardize the precarious regional balance. In the meantime, even if they didn’t disown the Abraham Accords, the relations with Israel are becoming more and more controversial and complicated.

Qatar is the first in line with its diplomatic mediation between Hamas and Israel’s leaderships but it’s starting to consider also the possibility to expel the leaders of the terrorist organization in case the political costs of their asylum becomes too much to handle. Riad and Washington are working on a wide and detailed military defense agreement but both Countries’ establishments can’t find a way to successfully link this agreement with a recognition between the Saudi monarchy and the Jewish State. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has to come to terms with its unsuccessful appeasement strategy regarding the Houthi movement.

Regardless the impasse of the national conflict, the shiite group, backed by Iran, doesn’t seem willing to reach a peace agreement with the internationally recognised legitimate government that only has control over a smaller part of the national territory. The Houthi leadership may get excited by the results of their destabilization campaign in the Red Sea and raise the stakes inside their Country, aiming to control also the rest of the territory. Riad also denied the US ally to launch attacks from inside its borders in order to prevent retaliations by the yemenite group.

Taking all these variables into consideration, Washington is trying to boost the military integration between all its allies, to strengthen the joint missile defense, along with supporting a modern marine development to prevent arms trafficking from Iran to Yemen and to secure the sea routes around the Arabian Peninsula. Despite the looming threat from Iran, the differences and opposite foreign agendas are still in the way of the realization of this wide geopolitical plan.

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