The Mediterranean Sea is emptying, the European Pact reckons with the challenge of deaths at sea

Translated by Anna Maria Guerino

The figure that changes the perspective

During the first eight months of 2026, Frontex recorded nearly 75,000 irregular crossings of the European Union’s external borders, 35% fewer than in the same period in 2025. The number of asylum applications also decreased: between January and June, the countries in the area monitored by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) received around 332,000 applications, 17% fewer year-on-year. At first glance, Europe appears to have more room to manage migration.

But another figure makes it impossible to stop here. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), sea arrivals in Europe had fallen by 39% mid-September, while it was estimated that at least 2292 people were died or missing, compared with 1999 the previous year. These surveys address distinct phenomena and should neither be conflated nor confused: Frontex focuses on crossings recorded at the borders; the EUAA counts asylum applications; the IOM registers sea arrivals and records the victims along the journey. Taken together, these figures raise a specific question: what does it mean to control borders if crossing them becomes even more deadly?

The Pact enters reality

The Pact on Migration and Asylum entered into application on 12 June 2026. It consists of ten legislative files concerning border procedures, the examination of applications, migrant reception and the allocation of responsibilities among states. After years of negotiations, the European Union has therefore a more comprehensive set of common rules. As of September, their concrete results are yet to be measured: the decline in applications had started before June and cannot automatically be attributed to the Pact.

On 28 September, during a conference in Malta, the European Union Agency for Asylum will launch its first public debate on the initial phase of application. The date says a lot about the political moment: we are still too far from full application to draw the first operational questions, but also too close to declare victory or failure. Data are needed on processing times, transfers between States, reception conditions and the quality of decisions.

Pressure does not disappear. It moves elsewhere

Geography remains the fundamental political fact. In the first half of 2026, France received about 69,000 asylum applications, Italy 66,000, Spain and Germany 55,000 each. Three quarters of asylum applications in the EUAA area were concentrated in these four countries. A common system has to deal with this concentration: the same rule weighs differently on national offices, courts and reception centres.

The number of new applications falls, but the accumulated workload remains. At the end of June, there were about 770,000 pending applications. The total was lower than that of the previous year. However, 73% of pending applications had been pending for more than six months, compared to 68% in June 2025. Therefore, a decline in incoming applications does not, by itself, produce rapid responses for those who already are in the system: prolonged waiting periods carry a heavy cost for both the individuals involved and the entities responsible for managing migrant reception.

This is where the Pact will meet society. European rules become effective in the offices where an application is examined, in the services that identify a vulnerability, in the municipalities hosting a reception centre. Accelerating procedures can riduce uncertainty. To succeed, personnel and administrative capacity are required; it is also necessary to preserve the examination of the individual case, as required by the new rules even in cases subject to an accelerated procedure.

Solidarity is assessed in contributions

For 2026, the European Solidarity Mechanism expects 21,000 relocations or other forms of support measures, or 420 million euros in financial contributions. Each Member State can contribute through relocations, funds, alternative measures or a combination of these forms. Italy is among the countries that can benefit from the support, having been classified as subject to migratory pressure.

The Pact is based on this compromise. Border countries want others to share the burden, while states that are more distant from migratory routes can choose how to contribute. It is now necessary to verify whether these measures really provide assistance where it is needed - through available funding, operational capacity and, where appropriate, the relocation of individuals. The announced solidarity and the realized solidarity are two different facts.

The border beyond the coast

The overall decrease in crossings neither makes all the routes identical nor eliminates the reasons why individuals leave. In the first half of 2026, Afghans submitted about 39,000 asylum applications in the EUAA, Venezuelans 33,000 and Bangladeshis 20,000. Behind these numbers lie different national situations and paths that cannot be explained by a single formula. Political changes in the countries of origin, work opportunities, constraints along the routes and decisions adopted by transit countries influence the direction of their movement.

Therefore, European ability will not be evaluated solely on the basis of the number of individuals reaching European coasts. It will encompass controls, the possibility to seek protection, the adoption of credible decisions and cooperation between Member States. The IOM figure on deaths at sea must also consider what happens before the arrival, along journeys that can only be partially influenced by a European rule applied at the border.

In September 2026, the Pact passed the test of entry into application. It still has to pass the test of results. Europe is living a period of lower numerical pressure: it is time to reduce pending cases, verify solidarity responsibilities and understand why the sea continues to claim lives. A well governed border is defined by the capacity to take decisions and justify them, even when there is a drop in arrivals.

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