Myanmar between an earthquake, civil war and humanitarian aid

Translated by Irene Cecchi

On March 28th, Myanmar was hit by a 7.7-magnitude earthquake that had disastrous consequences for the country. The tremors were felt throughout the Southeast Asian region, especially in Thailand. The situation in Myanmar was further complicated by the military junta, in power since 2021, which is blocking humanitarian aid from reaching certain areas of the country.

From the coup to civil war

The epicenter of the earthquake was located in the center of the country, just a few kilometers west of Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city with over a million inhabitants. Unlike neighboring Thailand, the country lacks the resources to cope with disasters caused by natural calamities, and the military junta has requested international assistance even though the country has been largely isolated since the current government took power through a coup.

Myanmar gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1948, having been a British colony. The country had already experienced a military coup in 1962, which led to a military dictatorship lasting until 2011.

A key opposition figure was Aung San Suu Kyi, who won the first free elections in 2015. Under her leadership, Myanmar began a democratic transition, though she was criticized by the West for her role in the Rohingya Muslim minority genocide. Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), also won the 2020 elections. However, in early 2021, the military staged another coup. Aung San Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest and a one-year state of emergency was declared. The Burmese population began peacefully protesting in the streets, demanding the return of a democratically elected government, but these demonstrations were violently suppressed by the junta. Instead of quelling dissent, this repression led to an armed uprising: various ethnic minorities across the country formed opposition groups and began attacking their common enemy—the Burmese army. The clashes between the two sides have escalated into a full-blown civil war, which continues to devastate Myanmar today.

In addition to isolating the country internationally, the junta is trying to maintain tight control internally. Press freedom is extremely limited and access to independent sources is nearly impossible: few people have access to the internet, especially since many live without electricity. The junta has also made it extremely difficult to form new political parties and since it took power, elections have been continuously postponed. In 2022, the death penalty for political prisoners was reinstated.

Currently, about 20% of Myanmar’s territory is under the junta’s control, especially major cities while rural and remote areas are held by dissident groups.

After the earthquake

The earthquake further weakened an already fragile country. It is estimated that around 3,500 people died and more than twice that number were injured, although there is no precise data due to the lack of media transparency. The international appeal for aid suggested that conditions in Myanmar were truly catastrophic. In practice, the situation has proven complex as the junta immediately made it difficult for humanitarian aid to access certain regions —often the hardest hit— particularly in the critical 72 hours following the earthquake when rapid response is essential for rescuing survivors. The military justified its actions on the grounds of security. Aid convoys were stopped at checkpoints in areas controlled by opposition groups, such as the city of Sagaing near the epicenter, where relief efforts were blocked for three days. Additionally, the junta often requires authorization from aid workers, involving lengthy bureaucratic processes. Some documents even include agreements prohibiting aid in certain areas: those outside junta control. In some cases, humanitarian missions were directly attacked by the military, as happened with the Chinese Red Cross.

This is particularly alarming since in many cases basic resources like food and clean water are in short supply, and hospital conditions are critical—many buildings collapsed or were damaged in the quake. Patients are often treated on the streets due to lack of facilities.

In the following days, more aftershocks struck the country, the strongest reaching magnitude 4.9, a medium-high level. As a result, many people are afraid to take shelter indoors, fearing further collapses, and are sleeping outdoors in tents. This is worsened by harsh weather conditions, with temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F) and heavy rains that further damaged buildings and destroyed emergency shelters. These conditions also increase the spread of diseases such as cholera. The most vulnerable —children, the elderly, people with disabilities and women— are particularly at risk of isolation, lack of support and abuse in communal shelters.

This is not the first time the junta has taken similar actions: this "monitoring" of humanitarian aid also occurred after the cyclone and typhoon that struck the country in 2023 and 2024, respectively. At that time, given the country's dire state, the National Unity Government (the main resistance movement) and the alliance of various ethnic groups declared a unilateral ceasefire, which the junta also agreed to. However, the junta continued to strike and bomb territories outside its control, effectively violating the agreement.

This demonstrates how the Burmese military is doing everything possible to weaken what it sees as rebel factions in order to regain full control of the country at the expense of thousands of people in extremely precarious conditions who are denied even basic aid, all for political strategy.

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