Translated by Beatrice Mereta
The origins of the rivalry
The antagonism between the two Middle Eastern countries has deep roots dating back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, which gave rise to a clear anti-Israeli stance and support for armed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. In response, Israel set itself the goal of containing Iranian influence in the region, focusing in particular on its nuclear program, which it considered a threat.
Over the years, the situation has not improved: on the contrary, since 2023, clashes have increased due to Iran's involvement in the conflict in Syria and its support for armed groups, including in the context of the October 7 attack in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The escalation of the rivalry not only jeopardizes the rights of the civilians involved, but also national and international security, making clear the causes of the latest event that has shaken the Middle East and the entire world.
What happened on June 13
The casus belli of the recent war lies in the determination of Israel and the United States to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, whose program they defined as a “point of no return” in Iran's development of nuclear weapons, alongside the two powers' intent to change the Iranian regime.
While Tehran insists on the peaceful nature of its program, Israel and its allies consider it a cover for the development of weapons, and this suspicion was heightened when Iran questioned its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, following the parliament's decision to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
It will be remembered as the ‘12-day war’ and ended with an official ceasefire, initially not respected, on June 24. This truce was reached quickly due to several factors, including Qatar's mediation, the US threat to strike Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei, and Iran’s diminished military capacity.
In statements following the ceasefire, the US president said he was certain that Iran had exhausted its nuclear capabilities and would never rebuild its nuclear program, hoping to force Tehran to sign an agreement renouncing nuclear weapons for military purposes once and for all.
“The Fordow raid ended the war; it was essentially the same as Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” Trump said after the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites.
Netanyahu also expressed his support for the war in Gaza, emphasizing the positive effects that the conflict with Iran would have on that front: the defeat of one of the main Islamic powers would, in his view, lead to the collapse of support for Hamas and the release of hostages.
In this war, everyone is a winner: Trump has called himself the “savior of peace in the Middle East,” Netanyahu celebrates the end of the Iranian nuclear threat, while Khamenei, supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, proudly claims the value of resistance. Everyone has won, except for those more than 600 civilian victims of the bombings.
Humanitarian data
In conflicts of such magnitude, it is essential not to ignore the humanitarian consequences, analyzing the numbers of civilian casualties and human rights violations, guaranteed by instruments such as international humanitarian law (IHL).
This branch of law intervenes by regulating hostilities to protect civilians, establishing that they must never be directly targeted and that humanitarian aid must be guaranteed. It also emphasizes that prisoners must be treated with dignity. Violation of these rules constitutes a war crime and, according to international law, both Israeli and US attacks against Iran are illegal, although the two countries refer to them as “security operations.”
Tehran responded to the Israeli attack with over 150 ballistic missiles and more than 100 kamikaze drones, targeting cities such as Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba, and Jerusalem.
Human rights violations also affect neighbouring regions affected by the conflict, such as Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, where the civilian population has suffered greatly as a result of bombing and retaliatory drone strikes.
According to Iranian authorities, at least 400 people were killed at the beginning of the hostilities and approximately 3,056 were wounded, but humanitarian organizations estimate higher figures. These are civilian casualties: the main targets include universities, residential buildings, and hospitals, as well as high-ranking military officials and scientists involved in the nuclear program.
This conflict has caused at least 974 deaths and 3,458 injuries in Iran, according to the organization Human Rights Activists.
Israeli medical sources, on the other hand, count about 28 deaths and over 3,000 injuries.
In addition, the violence has displaced thousands of people. As highlighted in the Global Trends 2024 report published by the UNHCR, Iran is now the country hosting the largest number of refugees in the world: about 3.5 million come from Afghanistan, followed by Syria and Lebanon. Displaced by previous conflicts, they now find themselves joining Iranian citizens fleeing to inland areas far from Israeli targets, waiting for a de-escalation, or across borders to Turkey, Iraq, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, which are being asked to respect the principle of non-refoulement and guarantee humanitarian access.
The alarm has been raised by the nuclear threat: striking nuclear facilities does not rule out the possibility of radioactive fallout. In fact, a successful attack could release contaminants that would create not only regional turmoil, but also a global environmental, humanitarian, and health crisis that would last for generations. Such a scenario, in addition to being disturbing, is expressly prohibited by the 1949 Geneva Conventions.
The main targets hit and damaged were in the city of Isfahan, where there is a uranium conversion plant and a metal processing plant, the Khondab reactor site in Arak, although not operational, and the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is still in service.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for unity within the Security Council and adherence to the UN Charter, urging both sides to give diplomacy a chance and reiterating the need for full Iranian cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.
A further element aggravating the conflict is the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The hope is that the ceasefire will also be extended to Gaza, where the total death toll updated in recent days stands at 56,156 dead and 132,239 wounded, including 5,401 dead and 18,060 wounded since March alone.
Despite the closure of the Iranian front, Israel is continuing its war in the Gaza Strip and does not seem willing to end the conflict anytime soon.
According to data published by the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip, 516 people seeking food rations were killed by Israeli gunfire or grenades while queuing at the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the US contractor appointed by Israel last month to replace the United Nations and international agencies in the distribution of aid, following the blockade imposed.
These distribution sites represent a clear militarization of humanitarian aid—an act that, under international law, constitutes a war crime.
Israel is currently accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice for its actions in Gaza, while the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
What about the EU?
The European Council met on June 26 to draft a document on Gaza and the Middle East, condemning the dramatic humanitarian situation in Gaza and Iran, calling for a ceasefire, and urging Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza to allow humanitarian aid access.
Specifically, the European Union is focusing on the migratory consequences of the conflicts that are destroying the Middle East, in particular the potential exodus of large numbers of Iranian refugees, and on the EU-Turkey relationship.
The European Union reaffirms its unwavering commitment to a lasting peace based on the two-state solution and confirms its opposition to Iran's nuclear program, calling on Tehran to comply with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. At the same time, the EU intends to support all diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions and reaching a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue.
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