French political crisis shakes a fragile Europe

Translated by Andrea Solazzo

The political crisis that has unfolded in recent days in France has been yet another blow to a system that has been living in very strong suffering for more than a year now, and which Macron himself, President of the French Republic, has been unable to remedy and reverse Despite an exceptional call to the polls last summer, frictions and fragile balances led to the resignation of Premier Michel Barnier, whose government lasted only three months, after a heavy vote of no confidence.

In the French political landscape, in fact, a strong polarization seems to be emerging around the two main political alignments: the Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen, which never before has seemed to be on the rise, and the leftist coalition of the New Popular Front, which, despite numerous internal disagreements, encompasses the different souls of the gauche, such as the Socialists and La France Insoumise. The latter actually emerged as the big winners from the summer elections, after a close challenge, with the right.

Faced with an extremely fragile situation and despite numerous pressures from the oppositions to push him to resign, it is evident how Macron is trying to pull straight by promising to continue his mandate and planning in the coming days the formation of a new executive of purpose that, also welcoming members of the oppositions, will succeed in approving the budget.

The deep French crisis in part traces what has happened in recent weeks in Germany as well, where the so-called “tricolor coalition,” formed by Socialists, Greens and Liberals, has entered a crisis. The main cause is serious internal rifts and positions that can no longer be reconciled between the parties, as evidenced by President Scholz's own clash with the then-fired Finance Minister, Liberal Christian Lindner. Deciding the fate of the government, again, will be the next vote of no-confidence, set for Dec. 16, although the fate of the executive seems already sealed, with the next elections to be held by next January.

Even considering the very strong political polarization emerging internationally, this scenario seems more complicated than that of 2016, when Trump's election in the US and Brexit followed. However, despite the difficulties, at the time the national and European systems demonstrated very strong resilience.

The current situation, however, appears in some respects more dramatic, not only because of the dual political and economic crises gripping Europe's locomotive, consisting of France and Germany, but also because of the inconsistency and fragilities that have emerged in recent months following the European elections and the formation of the new Commission. Indeed, the openness to right-wing coalitions and fragile balances to be maintained have given the Union's new political course an awkward start.

Just on the European level, moreover, it is important to highlight a rather relevant fact of the last few hours, which testifies to this turbulent phase: the trip of President Von der Leyen to Montevideo. After a long gestation period, the visit is aimed at closing the technical negotiations of one of the most debated and economically important trade and free trade agreements in history: the Mercosur.

A choice, this one, that has not been welcomed by many European leaders, who are deeply opposed to this agreement, whose estimated impacts will be profound on the European economy. One among the opposing voices is that of Macron himself, who has always been extremely sceptical and critical of the agreement. Precisely during the executive crisis, the French president kept in touch with the President of the European Commission, considering himself deeply disappointed and calling the agreement being finalized unacceptable.

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