The End of the Kurdistan Workers Party and Erdoğan’s Strategy: A New Era?

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

February 27 can be considered a historic day for Turkey – a date marked by infamy for some, while for others, it signifies the beginning of a new era of coexistence. After almost 25 years of detention, Adullah Öcalan, leader of the far-left Kurdish militant group PKK, spoke via livestream to announce the end of hostilities between the terroristic group and the Anatolic state.

Let’s explore the events that led to this potential turning point in the history of the Republic of Turkey and consider the possible future outcomes.

The end of terrorism and a new Turkey?

In the final months of 2024, the governing coalition – composed by the AKP Islamists and the ultranationalists of the MHP – introduced the possibility of a shift in relations with the Kurds and the militant organization PKK. The first sign of peace came by the leader himself, Devlet Bahçeli, who proposed allowing the former leader of the militant group to speak in parliament to officially end the conflict. This move sparked strong and outraged reactions from a large part of the Kemalist camp, accusing Bahçeli of betraying Turkey.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a key figure in this reconciliatory initiative regarding the Kurds. The leader of the pro-Kurdish DEM party, Selahattin Demirtas – still imprisoned – also expressed his support for the proposal. He conveyed his statement in the presence of a party delegate.

Öcalan declared the necessity of a ceasefire, even ordering the dissolution of the PKK. Nechirvan Barzani, leader of the Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq, immediately welcomed this development positively, along with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), Masoud Barzani. The Iraqi Kurds have long supported Ankara’s efforts to neutralize PKK cells within their territories. At the same time, Salih Muslim, leader of the Syrian political wing of the PKK, the PYD, has expressed openness to laying down arms if suitable conditions arise. However, Mazlum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – which includes Kurdish forces linked to the PKK – poses a challenge to this initiative. The Kurdish commander has emphasized that anted to emphasize that Öcalan’s statements do not apply to the Syrian context.

The situation remains delicate. The world is waiting closely, waiting to see the next move of the key players involved. The first unknown factor is whether all elements of the PKK will fully adhere to their former leader’s request to dissolve the organization. The most uncertain scenario lies in Syria, where the SDF remains entangled in a fragile and temporary political standoff with the country’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. His goals is to reunify Syria under a single, sovereign authority, offering no concession for autonomy to minority groups. However, he has promised that all minorities will be included in the future government. The second unknown is the presence of US military forces, as the new occupant of the White House appears determined to end their mission, potentially leaving the SDF without its primary protector.

On the domestic front, this move is crucial for Turkey’s president to maintain his power. According to the constitution, he cannot run for another term in 2027. Some analysts suggest that the Islamist leader hopes to forge an alliance with the pro-Kurdish DEM party, given that he cannot rely on support from the Kemalist oppositions – CHP and IYI parties. With Kurdish votes, Erdoğan may push for a new constitutional concession to the Kurdish minority, such as increased rights or limited autonomy. However, the risk of further authoritarianism looms large. The possibility of additional blows to the secular foundation of the republic, established by its founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, cannot be ruled out.

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