Energy transition in Africa: an opportunity or a new form of dependence?

Translated by Mariateresa Tauro

For decades, Africa has been portrayed through an incomplete narrative as a continent rich in resources, yet unable to transform its natural wealth into development. Oil, gas, strategic minerals, fertile lands, and energy potential have often represented more of an unfulfilled promise than a real driver of growth. Nowadays, as the global energy transition becomes more urgent, this contradiction is once again at the core of international debate: the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy is presented as an environmental necessity, but in international relations, the green transition is actually a competition of economic and geopolitical interests. What is at stake is not only the future of energy but also the global balance of power: whoever controls the new energy supply chains, the necessary technologies, and the infrastructure will hold a decisive position in the future global order.

In this context, Africa plays a dual role. On the one hand, it has some of the most favourable conditions in the world for producing renewable energy: its desert and semi-desert areas offer enormous solar potential and, at the same time, several countries have significant opportunities for developing wind and hydroelectric power. On the other hand, however, the continent risks once again becoming a place from which value is extracted, without managing to build genuine industrial autonomy. Indeed, the problem is not merely a matter of producing clean energy, but of determining who will lead the process, who will benefit from the investments, and whether the energy transition will truly be a means of cooperation or a new form of dependency.

The potential to generate large amounts of renewable energy could mark a turning point for many African economies. Access to energy remains, in fact, one of the continent’s main challenges: millions of people still do not have a stable electricity supply, whilst industrialisation requires more solid infrastructures and reliable energy systems. Therefore, the transitions could be not only a response to the climate crisis, but also a development strategy capable of boosting industrial production, digitalisation, employment and economic growth. However, natural potential alone is not enough. International history shows that possessing resources does not automatically lead to development. The real difference lies in the ability to build infrastructure, skills and production systems capable of retaining wealth within countries.

The actual obstacle in Africa is not a lack of sunshine or wind; it is the lack of adequate electricity grids, investments, technology and financial instruments. That’s why the energy transition is reshaping the global balance of power. In the last century, the major powers vied for control of fossil fuels. In the future, the competition will concern green technologies and the raw materials needed to produce them. Solar panels, batteries, electrical infrastructure, and energy storage systems require strategic minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper and rare earth elements - many of which are available in Africa. The risk is that the continent could enter a new phase of mining: no longer centred on oil and gas, but on the materials essential to the green revolution. A transition driven solely by demand from advanced economies could repeat old patterns, turning African countries into mere suppliers of raw materials for the industrial growth of others, without developing their own technological capabilities. Therefore, the key question is whether the green transition will really change the relationship between the Global North and the Global South, or whether it will merely replace the strategic resources at the heart of global competition.

The answer will depend on the quality of international partnerships. Over the past few years, Europe, China, the US and the Gulf States have increasingly turned their attention towards Africa for energy, economic, and geopolitical reasons. Europe also looks to the African continent because of its geographical proximity and the need to forge new forms of cooperation in an increasingly unstable global context. However, proximity does not automatically guarantee a balanced relationship. Energy cooperation can only work if it is not limited to the purchase of energy or the extraction of resources, but if it also aims to build local capacity through training, technology transfer, infrastructure, and industrial development.

In this regard, the Mattei Plan for Africa, promoted by Italy to forge a new relationship with the African continent based on collaboration in strategic sectors such as energy, agriculture, education, infrastructure, and development, takes on particular significance. Its effectiveness will depend on the ability to move beyond a merely welfare-based approach and to build genuinely collaborative partnerships. The challenge will be to ensure that cooperation is not perceived as a top-down relationship, in which Europe sets the priorities and Africa provides the resources. In the energy sector, this means supporting not only large-scale generation projects but also initiatives capable of generating tangible benefits for local communities. The energy transition requires enormous amounts of capital, and many African projects offer significant opportunities, but also high risks related to political stability, infrastructure challenges, regulatory uncertainty, and market fragility. For these reasons, financial instruments play a crucial role. Companies that want to invest in emerging markets need assurances that will enable them to deal with uncertainty and turn theoretical possibilities into real projects. This section features those institutions that support Italian companies in their internationalisation efforts through insurance and financial tools, helping them to facilitate strategic investments even in complex situations.

Support for investment is not limited to the protection of private enterprise. In a world where the economy and international politics are increasingly intertwined, promoting sustainable investment also means strengthening a country’s economic and diplomatic presence. Therefore, effective energy cooperation requires collaboration among governments, financial institutions and businesses: companies can offer technology and expertise; governments can establish policy agreements; and financial instruments can reduce risks and facilitate project implementation. Finance thus becomes a component of international politics because the possibility of building a new energy model also depends on who has the resources to support it. The transition in Africa is one of the major challenges of the coming decade. It may become a historic opportunity to accelerate the content’s economic development, increase access to energy, and create new industrial opportunities. But it could also become another chapter in a long history of dependency, in which Africa’s resources fuel the growth of other countries without leading to self-sufficiency.

The difference will depend on political decisions. A truly sustainable transition cannot be measured solely by the amount of emissions reduced, but also by its ability to foster development, create jobs, and promote economic independence. Africa’s energy future will not be determined only by the amount of sunlight available or the presence of strategic minerals, but especially by who will control the infrastructure, who will build the expertise, and who will succeed in transforming natural wealth into economic power. The real challenge of the green transition will therefore be not simply changing the source of energy, but changing the way the world builds cooperative relationships.

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