The Enigma of Western Sahara.

Translated by Federico Emanuele

The vast and inhospitable expanse of Western Sahara remains the stage for one of Africa's longest-running and most complex territorial disputes. For nearly half a century, the sands of this region have silently witnessed a latent conflict, an intricate tangle of historical claims, geopolitical ambitions, and the enduring desire for self-determination of the Sahrawi people.

While the Kingdom of Morocco is advancing its autonomy proposal with renewed emphasis as a pragmatic solution, the aspirations for independence staunchly pursued by the Polisario Front stand as an insurmountable barrier, perpetuating a stalemate that deeply affects the lives of thousands of people and the stability of the entire Maghreb region.

The history of Western Sahara is a crossroads of influences and powers. Originally inhabited by nomadic Berber tribes, the territory became a Spanish colony in the late 19th century. Decolonization, a troubled process in many parts of the world, proved particularly problematic for this portion of desert.

In November 1975, as Spain prepared to withdraw, Morocco orchestrated the "Green March," a mass mobilization of civilians who crossed the border to claim sovereignty over the territory. This move not only violated the UN principles of self-determination but also sparked an armed conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front, founded in 1973 with the aim of achieving the independence of Western Sahara and the creation of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

The conflict, which lasted until 1991, was marked by intermittent clashes and saw the involvement of regional powers, with Algeria providing refuge and logistical support to the Polisario Front. The UN-brokered ceasefire and the establishment of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) represented a fragile hope for a peaceful resolution.

The mission had the specific mandate to organize a self-determination referendum, allowing the Sahrawi people to choose between independence and integration with Morocco. However, determining the electoral roll proved an insurmountable challenge: Morocco insisted on including Moroccan settlers who had moved to the territory after 1975, while the Polisario Front demanded reliance on the Spanish colonial-era census lists.

Faced with the prolonged stalemate over the referendum, Morocco has gradually consolidated its administrative and infrastructural control over Western Sahara, investing in development projects and promoting the settlement of Moroccan citizens. At the same time, it has intensified its international diplomacy to garner support for its sovereignty claim, culminating in the formal presentation of an autonomy plan in 2007.

This proposal outlines a framework for regional self-government under Moroccan sovereignty, with a locally elected parliament, an executive, and a judiciary with specific competences in various sectors. However, for the Polisario Front and a significant portion of the international community, autonomy - while potentially a ground for discussion - cannot replace the inalienable right to self-determination through a free and impartial referendum.

Regional dynamics, steeped in historical rivalries and strategic considerations, play a crucial role in perpetuating the conflict. Algeria, with its long border with Morocco and its ideological support for liberation movements, has consistently sided with the Polisario Front, offering asylum to Sahrawi refugees in the Tindouf camps and providing crucial political and diplomatic support. This stance has fueled persistent tensions between the two North African neighbors, with repercussions on regional cooperation and overall stability.

The diplomatic breakthrough of December 2020, with the United States' recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, marked a significant success for Rabat and a severe blow to the Polisario Front's aspirations.

This decision, announced alongside the normalization of relations between Morocco and Israel, undermined the international consensus on the need for a referendum and reinforced Morocco's position on the global stage. Nevertheless, many countries, including key European and African actors, continue to support a negotiated solution within the framework of UN resolutions, emphasizing the importance of the right to self-determination.

The consequences of the protracted conflict are dramatically felt by the Sahrawi population. In the Tindouf refugee camps, generations have been born and raised waiting for a resolution that would allow them to return to their homeland. Dependence on humanitarian aid, limited economic opportunities, and frustration over an uncertain future fuel a sense of disillusionment and, in some cases, a radicalization of positions. Meanwhile, in the Moroccan-administered territory, the Sahrawi population often denounces discrimination and restrictions on fundamental freedoms.

The natural resources of Western Sahara, particularly its vast phosphate deposits and the rich fishing grounds along the Atlantic coast, add another economic dimension to the conflict. Control over these resources is a key element in regional power dynamics and fuels the claims of both sides.

The question of Western Sahara remains an open wound at the heart of North Africa. The opposition between Morocco's autonomy proposal and the Sahrawi people's unwavering desire for independence - supported by the Polisario Front - continues to challenge the international community.

As geopolitical dynamics evolve and new actors enter the scene, the hope for a peaceful and lasting solution, based on respect for international law and the will of the parties, seems increasingly remote, casting a shadow of uncertainty and potential instability over a region already marked by conflict and division.

Now more than ever, the international community bears the responsibility to revive dialogue and foster a negotiation process that can finally lead to a just and definitive solution for the Sahrawi people.

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