The Status of Palestine in the Union’s Debate

Translated by Federico Emanuele

The recognition of a state is an act of international law that entails acceptance of its existence as a sovereign entity capable of engaging in diplomatic relations. There are no rigid rules or mandatory procedures, since each country decides autonomously if and when to recognize a state entity. Recognition is generally based on established criteria, such as the existence of a defined territory, a stable population, a government able to exercise effective authority, and the capacity to engage in relations with other states. In theory, Palestine meets at least part of these requirements, but the situation remains controversial due to Israel’s military occupation, territorial fragmentation between the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and the internal divisions between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. For these reasons, international recognition of Palestine has for decades been a source of political and diplomatic tension.

Within the European Union, the Palestinian question has long represented a persistent internal fault line. While the EU as a whole publicly supports the two-state solution as the only realistic path to peace in the Middle East, individual member states retain full sovereignty over recognition decisions. This has translated into some countries that have formally recognized the State of Palestine, others that firmly oppose recognition, and a third group that prefer to maintain a cautious wait-and-see position. The absence of a common consensus prevents Brussels from speaking with one voice and diminishes the Union’s ability to exert strong influence over the peace process.

The obstacles are not only legal but above all political. For several Western European countries, recognizing Palestine without a negotiated agreement with Israel risks jeopardizing bilateral relations with Tel Aviv, a strategic partner in areas ranging from security to technology. For others, however, it is a matter of principle: recognition would reaffirm the right to self-determination and lend renewed legitimacy to efforts to build a negotiated settlement. This divide has resurfaced whenever violence in the Middle East has placed the issue back at the top of the agenda, and it has deepened in recent months in light of the protracted conflict in Gaza and rising tensions in the West Bank.

At the national level, Eastern Europe was among the first to move toward recognition. Many former socialist states such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic recognized Palestine in the 1980s, in continuity with their Cold War-era foreign policies. Even though some of these governments now maintain close ties with Israel, the recognition formally remains in place. The situation in Western Europe is more complex. Sweden became the first Western EU member to officially recognize the State of Palestine in 2014, provoking critical reactions from Israel. Other governments, while not having taken the step of formal recognition, have approved parliamentary motions urging their executives to move in that direction. This has been the case in France and Belgium, which are expected to recognize Palestine during the eightieth session of the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September, with President Macron stressing that “a two-state solution remains the guiding framework.”

In May 2025, Spain and Ireland signaled their intention to proceed with a coordinated recognition together with other European partners in order to maximize political impact. Germany has maintained a cautious stance, with Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul declaring that Palestinian state recognition will come “at the end of negotiations toward a two-state solution,” while acknowledging the need to begin such a process. Italy, although declaring support for a solution that includes a Palestinian state, has shown no concrete intention of taking the step of recognition.

For some governments, the priority remains guaranteeing Israel’s security, especially in light of rising regional threats and actions by armed groups. For others, by contrast, withholding recognition of Palestine only helps prolong the conflict, fuels frustration, and weakens moderate forces within Palestinian society. The matter therefore remains tied to broader geopolitical balances, to the role of the United States, and to the internal dynamics of the EU institutions, which are often slow in producing shared decisions.

Recognition of Palestine can thus be seen as a litmus test for European foreign policy. On the one hand, the Union claims its commitment to human rights and peace; on the other, it fails to overcome its internal divisions, which weaken its international weight. The coming months will reveal whether the declarations of intent by some governments will translate into concrete steps. Recognition by a significant group of member states could create a domino effect, encouraging others to follow, but it could also accentuate the EU’s internal fragmentation.

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