The Western world and the MENA area: in between the end of an hegemony and the new multipolarism.

Translated by Irene Cecchi

In the last ten years, in the world of international politics’ analysts and journalists a fear has been spreading, regarding the strength and influence of Western Countries in the strategic context of the Middle East and North African area. A weakening of the US hegemony is undeniable and the struggle of European actors managing the region’s issues too.

Let’s see the risks and opportunities of a developing strategic context overturned by a conflict that may turn into a wider regional war.

The end of the hegemony: risks and changes of the new multipolar perspective

After the Arab Spring the region fell into chaos with various government overthrowing, civil wars outbreak and the rise of the Islamic regime. It is undeniable that, after a long time, the Western actors are going through a weakening of their position and influence due to the consequences of the turmoil.

France and Great Britain are the most affected countries by the loss of influence. In North Africa, Paris lost its influence in the ex-colonies like Tunisia and also the relations with Algeria didn’t work out for the best. The latter is also the Country in the region that has the best relations with Moscow since it is one of its best clients in the defense business. These two Maghreb countries built a profitable yet ambiguous relationship with Rome that, from its position, isn’t capable of working systemically anymore and must find a way to sort out the Libyan political and military situation. Right now, the two main countries that influence the internal dynamic of the “Sand Box” are Russia and Turkey since they sponsor the two main factions fighting for power. The ONU mediation, backed by the Western world but not in a coherent and transparent way by Paris, is failing and it seems like the US is losing interest. Egypt is experiencing an economic crisis becoming the classical “giant with feet of clay” and the European countries aren’t worrying that much even if it’s currently in debt and breathing only thanks to the US and Saudi support to balance the financial condition.

Looking East, the situation doesn’t get better. Turkey, under the control of the Rais, is nowadays a free agent and the main free rider of NATO, following different foreign paths, not always aligned with Western agendas. The economic crisis is the only thing that is keeping Ankara from projecting power outside of its borders like before the pandemic, when he organized military operations in Syria or his gunboat diplomacy in the mediterranean sea. Turkey is still turning to Europe for the essential economic partnerships but its geostrategic approach is more oriented towards the pro-turkish world in Asia and the islamic world in Africa. Regardless of the presence of US troops, Syria and Iraq are heavily influenced by Iran and Russia, which sees in Damasco the main protectorate in the region.

The relations with the Gulf Monarchies are still good mainly because they can’t find a plausible security provider alternative to the US. The Iranian attack showed that, when in need and crisis, the Gulf Monarchies still prefer the protection of Washington to face the possible escalation of Iran. Despite the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Abraham Accords that were launched by Trump and enlarged by the Biden administration show the will of these actors to change their approach and explore the possibility of a cooperation with the Jewish State. Nevertheless, both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates seem to be leaning towards a mediation with the Islamic Republic, relying also on external actors like China. The US nominated Qatar “Major Non-NATO Ally” in the region despite its relations with the Taliban regime and the fact that it provided protection to the Hamas’ leadership. Also the UAE has now abandoned every ostracism against the Afghan emirate by validating the first taliban diplomat. The agendas of these regional actors and their foreign allies are different also regarding Yemen: while the arab monarchies prefer a modus vivendi with Houthi, on the other hand the Western world strongly wants to prevent the Bāb el-Mandeb bottleneck from blocking since it is a fundamental piece for commercial trades.

The situation in the Caucasus is constantly evolving. Also the two historical allies have reconsidered their priorities and possible actions. Georgia is tormented by internal tensions between the pro-Euro faction and the ones aiming to distance themselves from both sides. The Azeri regime has strongly improved the relations with the Russian Federation that has now left on its own the historical but geopolitically irrelevant Armenian ally, whose difficulties seem not to concern policymakers from Europe nor the US. They both want to keep a strong relation with Baku in order to preserve the hydrocarbons’ routes to the continent and to ensure an anti-Iran stronghold in the region.

Also the relations with Israel are not at their best. In fact, Europe still can’t influence, advise or even stem some policies of the Jewish State. The reference seems unable to decide and afraid of taking action against the old ally.

Just like the unipolar era, also the US and western hegemony is coming to an end. The region is characterized by many geopolitical “critical void”, by counties on the edge and actors that have found a renewed power and will to implement their agenda for a regional supremacy. The European leaderships in particular will have to wake up from their strategic numbness ensured by the former American hegemony and find new ways to cooperate in a more fluid regional context.

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