Translated by Jennifer Di Giacomo
The European Union has recently taken a decisive step toward energy autonomy by approving, by majority vote, the European Commission’s proposal for the gradual phase-out of natural gas and LNG imports from Russia. The measure—outlined by Denmark’s Ministry for Climate, Energy and Utilities—is a central element of the REPowerEU roadmap. Its primary goal is to end the EU’s dependence on Russian energy.
The Council has agreed on its negotiating position for the draft regulation, which introduces a gradual and legally binding ban on both Russian pipeline gas and LNG starting from 1st January 2028.
The long history of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas
Energy ties between Europe and Russia—formerly the Soviet Union—stretch back decades. Soviet gas supplies to Western Europe began in the late 1960s, when European countries sought low-cost raw materials to fuel rapid industrial expansion. At the time, Moscow was seen as a more stable trade partner than the Middle East.
With the development of Siberian gas fields in the 1970s, the USSR became an energy powerhouse. Large-scale exports to Western Europe began with the Urengoy–Uzhhorod pipeline, completed in 1984. Other pipelines that later became crucial for Europe’s energy security include Yamal (via Belarus and Poland, operational since 1996) and Nord Stream 1 (under the Baltic Sea, operational since 2011). The United States consistently attempted to halt this cooperation, warning European allies about the risks of dependence on Soviet energy, but the alternatives offered were considered too costly or unrealistic by European governments.
Over time, the structural and geographic dependency between the EU and Moscow enabled Russia to use gas as a geopolitical lever. In the past 15 years, several supply disruptions occurred in response to political and military tensions, including wide-ranging cuts across Europe in the winter of 2008–2009 and those targeting Kiev in 2006 and 2014, after the annexation of Crimea. Tensions escalated further with the project Nord Stream 2, launched in 2015, which was strongly criticized by several EU member states and the United States for threatening Europe’s strategic autonomy.
Before 2022 invasion, Russia was by far the EU’s main gas supplier, with exports reaching 16 billion cubic meters in 2019, accounting for 43% of total EU gas imports.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drastically accelerated the EU’s disengagement from Russian gas. Just two days after the invasion, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz halted the certification of Nord Stream 2, blocking its entry into operation. The EU responded with economic sanctions and a gradual reduction in demand—and dependence—on Russian gas.
Since 2022, the share of Russian gas imported by the EU has dropped from 40% to about 11% in 2024. However, while pipeline revenues plummeted, European imports of Russian LNG hit record highs from January to July 2023, rising 40% compared to the same period in 2021. Despite this uptick in LNG purchases, the EU continues to pursue full disengagement. Currently, only the TurkStream pipeline—which supplies Turkey and then Hungary and the Balkans via the Balkan Stream—remains operational for Europe.
This reduction in dependency has been made possible by a sharp increase in LNG imports and an overall decline in EU gas consumption of more than 19% between 2021 and 2024. The EU’s main gas suppliers in 2024 were: Norway (33.4%); the United States—the leading LNG supplier (16.5%); Algeria (14%); and Qatar (4.3%). The EU has also sought additional supplies from the Middle East and North Africa. A memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan aims to double the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor by 2027. To ensure secure and affordable supplies, the EU set up the EU Energy Platform and the Aggregate EU mechanism for joint gas purchasing, preventing internal competition among member states and leveraging the strength of the single market.
A permanent end to dependence on Russian fossil fuels will require rapid deployment of renewable infrastructure—solar and wind—and further electrification. The EU is on track: in 2022, electricity generated from solar and wind surpassed gas for the first time.
To accompany the transition, the REPowerEU regulation requires all member states to submit national diversification plans by 1st March 2026, outlining measures and potential challenges in diversifying energy sources.
Internal EU divisions
Despite overwhelming support for the legislation, the agreement was not unanimous and faced opposition from some member states, including Hungary and Slovakia. Due to their geographical position and lack of direct access to the sea, these countries have historically relied on pipelines connected to Russia for their supply.
They have warned of serious risks to national energy security and potentially severe economic repercussions. Hungary—which has a long-term contract valid until 2026 and even increased its import volumes in 2024—called the EU plan “a threat” and has promised legal action. Slovakia also finds itself in a difficult position: lacking short-term alternatives, the closure of gas flows through Ukraine could have severe consequences.
The short- and long-term outlook
Although Europe’s disengagement from Russian energy has been under way for years, the latest acceleration will have an immediate and obvious effect: gas prices will rise. On the other hand, Russia’s revenue streams will take a significant hit, as Moscow continues to indirectly fund its military apparatus through fossil fuel revenues. Nonetheless, Russia has shown considerable economic resilience, adapting to sanctions and maintaining tight control over capital flows. The IMF estimates that Russia’s GDP is only about 10–12% below the trajectory it would have followed without the war and sanctions.
For the EU, the challenge remains twofold: ensuring supply security and keeping energy affordable.
The crisis has forced the EU to rethink its foreign policy and energy security strategy. While there are no immediate, miraculous solutions, moving beyond Russian gas in the medium to long term is indispensable. Deepening the integration of EU energy markets, modernising grids, and implementing targeted measures aim to make energy cheaper and the market more resilient.
The REPowerEU plan—which mobilises nearly 300 billion euros—focuses on reducing Russian imports, decarbonising industry, rapidly expanding renewables, and improving energy efficiency. Its ultimate goal is to completely end purchases of fossil fuels from Russia by 2028.
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