Hungary turns over the page following 16 years of Orban government

Translated by Martina Ravasi

On April 12th, in Hungary there were legislative elections to renew the Parliament and nominate a new Prime Minister. Through these elections, the Hungarians were asked to choose whether they wanted to reconfirm Viktor Orban, the leader of the conservative right-wig party Fidesz.

These were the most awaited elections of the year, perhaps just like mid-term elections in the United States. The European Union was with bated breath, since they were aware that there wasn’t just the future of Hungary at stake, but also the future of the entire EU. Indeed, over the last few years Viktor Orban has been a true thorn in the side for Brussels, especially starting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Orban has always been Putin-friendly and has always hampered economic and military aid to Ukraine until the very last day of his mandate. Last March pipeline Druzhba was blocked following an attack of a Russian drone that damaged the functioning of the pipeline – according to Ukraine. This pipeline is used by Budapest to get oil supplies from Russia. This event provoked a further crisis between Hungary and Ukraine. As a result, Hungary decided to halt a 90-billion European loan to Ukraine, accusing Zelensky of sabotaging the pipeline on purpose as a pretext for an energy crisis.

Apart from Ukraine, Orban has always rowed upstream against EU guidelines even in other sectors. For example, during his mandate, billions of euros coming from European cohesion funds expected to be given to Hungary were frozen. Moreover, today Hungary is the only European country where Article 7 has been applied. According to it, in 2018 the European Parliament opened a formal procedure owing to an “evident risk of violation” of EU pillars. This is due to several laws approved by Orban that gradually dismantled the independency of the judiciary as well as the rule of law and many fundamental rights – including freedom of expression and the rights of the LGBTQ community.

Therefore, we don’t have to be surprised when the EU gave a sigh of relief when Peter Magyar, the main opposer of Orban, won the elections, thus making an end to 16 consecutive years of unquestioned control by the previous Hungarian Prime Minister. Everywhere in Western Europe the atmosphere is electric. Indeed, according to the very first declarations of the new Prime Minister, he has already talked about the unfreezing of those 18 billion euros to Hungary, as well as the entry of the country in the Eurozone and his green light to Ukrainian loans. As a result, on April 13th stock exchange quotations were soaring in Budapest.

Tisza victory, Magyar’s party, was overwhelming and beyond any expectation. Indeed, Tisza obtained 54% of votes, against 38% of Fidesz. In this way, Magyar managed to have 138 seats in the Parliament out of 199 – Fidesz only obtained 55 of them, thus ensuring his party to have the majority of two thirds of the seats, which is the threshold necessary to approve constitutional reforms. The remaining 6 seats were given to Mi Hazank, an ultra-nationalist extreme right-wig party. Lastly, we don’t have to forget the drop of DK, the main left-wig party, that didn’t exceed the 5% threshold, which is necessary to have a political representation in Parliament.

Magyar’s victory was even more significative if we consider that Hungary has a mixed electoral system where 106 seats out of 199 are assigned in single-member constituencies, while the remaining 93 are distributed through national and minority lists proportionally. Those millions of Hungarians living abroad can vote for the latter. This means that in less densely populated areas – often rural ones – 50,000/60,000 electors are enough to nominate a member of Parliament, while in urban areas up to 90,000/100,000 votes may be necessary to obtain the same seat. This is a system reshaped in 2010 tending to advantage the party that used to be in office in those years – Fidesz. Indeed, Orban’s party has always received many votes from the rural areas of Hungary as well as from Hungarian minorities living in neighbouring countries, such as Romania and Serbia. For this reason, despite leading in the polls which showed his national popularity, Magyar’s victory wasn’t to be taken for granted, since most seats were elected according to each constituency even where Fidesz may have won, thus keeping the majority in Parliament.

The turnout at the polls was unprecedented. Almost 80% of the population voted, which is the highest turnout figure in Hungary since the collapse of communism. In particular, Magyar must be grateful to the youngest generations, who voted Tisza massively, thus showing their strong willing to turn over the page. Moreover, whereas Orban has always been supported by the Hungarians living in neighbouring countries, Tisza decided to focus on the Hungarians living in Western Europe, who are more liberal and critical towards Orban.

At any rate, many people are happy with Magyar’s victory, because they hope Hungary will be closer to the EU and more anti-Russian. On top of that, people hope that the new Prime Minister will get rid of those constitutional modifications approved by Orban that turned the country into an illiberal democracy. However, there is no denying that 16 years of Orban government can’t be dismantled in a few weeks. Moreover, although Tisza is more moderate than Fidesz, it’s important to stress that it’s a right-wig party which is aligned with Fidesz on some issues, such as the migration question. For instance, Magyar himself has declared to be in favour of an anti-migration wall along the Serbian border. Indeed, before becoming Tisza’s leader, Magyar used to be a member of Fidesz for more than 20 years. Afterwards, in 2024 he left the party as a sign of protest against the government due to a scandal following a presidential pardon for a child abuse case.

In conclusion, Hungary has turned over the page for sure. However, now it’s important to look at the very first measures of the new government, since Magyar will have to look for a compromise between those who voted him and those supporting Orban.

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