Mozambico, civili nel mirino: il jihadismo opportunista dell’ISMP

Translated by Federica Conti

At Cabo Delgado, in the northeast of Mozambique, at the border with Tanzania, the conflict that began in 2017 is still alive today, with an escalation of attacks and forced displacement of civilians. The conflict has caused 2,721 civil victims till 8 March 2026, and it is strengthened by factors such as the weakness of the State and the high availability of natural resources, which facilitate the systematic use of violence against civilians by Jihadist rebels.

How the Jihadist insurrections destabilized Cabo Delgado

In 2017, the Mozambican jihadist group Al-Shabaab (ASWJ) guided the insurrection in Mocímboa da Praia, in Cabo Delgado. The ASW, during the attacks, was a small group that was not yet involved in the Islamic State. Between 2018 and 2019, the group strengthened the attacks and began its affiliation with the Islamic State, becoming a member of the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP). Since 2022, it has been known as the Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP), indicating the Mozambican area of ISIS, distinguishing it formally from the branch of the central Africa.

In the last months of 2025, new waves of violence caused the displacement of thousands of people and ongoing violations of human rights by the ISMP group. These aggressions are not limited to the province of Cabo Delgado, but they are happening in the surrounding areas such as Nampula, Eràti, and Mmeba, which were once considered safe places. According to what the UNHCR reported on December 2, 2025, these violations provoked the displacement of more than 100.000 people. "These simultaneous attacks in several districts are generating a huge challenge for humanitarian actors who have to multiply emergency response in different zones of the country," said Xavier Creach, the representative of UNHCR in Mozambique, who also affirmed that civilians are being killed and even decapitated.

The Mozambican government, led by the party FRELIMO (Mozambique Liberation Front), with the intervention of SADC (Southern African Development Community) and Rwanda, is trying to fight rebels, but without any success. This conflict can be defined as an internationalized intrastate war, because it involves a civil war between the State and a non-state group, but also involves the SADC, an international organization operating at a regional level, with the mission SAMIM, and Rwanda to help the state forces of Mozambique.

Why Jihadist rebels are so violent against civilians?

Mozambique is a country full of natural resources (gas and minerals), so this is an important factor to consider when talking about the violent behaviour of non-state armed groups that are trying to undermine the monopoly of violence of the State. Some factors explain why there are rebel movements that use so much violence against civilians, an example is provided by RENAMO in Mozambique during the civil war that finished in 1992, or the rebel movement Sendero Luminoso in Perù, in the valley of Huallaga, whereas other movements, such as NRA, during the war in Uganda, were less violent against civilians. The ISMP group, in Mozambique, operates in a territory rich in gas and minerals, giving them the opportunity to control these resources and not depend on civilians, using violence against them without the risk of non-collaboration. Another element is the low quality of the security forces of the Mozambican State, facilitating the action of ISMP, which does not need to cooperate with civilians to hide, supply food, or collect information. I would define the ISMP as an opportunistic group of rebels, because they operate in a territory with high availability of natural resources where the State power is weak. The ISMP is not sponsored by a third actor but can sustain itself through local illegal funds in Cabo Delgado that are linked to the traffick of mineral resources and the so-called "revolutionary tax" imposed on the villages under its control. Another factor to consider is the high number of kidnappings for the purpose of ransom and extortion from ISMP, that quadruplicated in 2025.

Displaced people, kidnappings and food crisis

In a context so unstable, with a government that cannot control the whole country, the inability to guarantee the security of the country exposes civilians to the violence of rebels. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) estimated more than 93.000 people escaped from Cabo Delgado and Nampula after the terrorist attacks by the rebels. These waves of displacement are not isolated cases but continuous, and have led to a humanitarian crisis in the region. UNICEF claimed to be very concerned about the continuous kidnappings of children by rebels in Cabo Delgado, warning about the fact that victims are forced to be recruited, violating the human rights of minors severely. Refugees' rights are in danger because women, children, and the elderly risk being exposed to abuses. According to Amnesty International, nearly 77.000 people, between July and September 2025, were displaced due to disease and severe lack of funds, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Cabo Delgado and putting a strain on limited aid supplies. The lack of funds and the instability of the region led to the suspension of humanitarian aid operations, as in the case of Medici Senza Frontiere, which has stopped its activities in the Mocìmboa da Praia district on September 28, 2025, due to the escalation of violence. According to the World Food Programme in Mozambique, nearly 2.7 million people suffer from food insecurity and need urgent assistance; 1.6 million of them are from Cabo Delgado, where various communities depend on humanitarian aid to survive.

Moving towards stabilization

This humanitarian crisis, caused by a multidimensional conflict, seems not to stabilize itself. In order to face this situation, we need to intervene on factors that allow rebels to use violence against state forces, but mostly against civilians. A step forward was taken in 2021 with the intervention of SADC, with the mission SAMIM, which could be defined as a peace-enforcement mission, and not traditional peacekeeping, because it operates actively against Jihadist rebels and aims to reclaim cities and villages, helping Mozambican state forces.

On one hand, we should intervene on the quality of Mozambican state security forces, with a process of SSR, training them to become more competitive against rebels; this activity has already been implemented by SAMIM, and it is a good signal. On the other hand, we should intervene with the aim of stopping the appropriation of natural resources and illegal local funds of rebels, introducing a specific mechanism of regional certification of mineral resources for areas controlled by the ISMP group, like the Kimberley Process (used during the civil war in Sierra Leone to fight the Revolutionary United Front). This mechanism of certification could be implemented by exploiting the presence of SADC, with the mission SAMIM, with the aim of avoiding, or at least reducing, smuggling activities that are crucial for the livelihood of jihadist rebels.

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