At the European Negotiation Table: The Proposal for the Next Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034

Translated by Federico Emanuele

One of the most challenging topics at the negotiation table in recent days is the upcoming European budget, better known as the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which will cover the period 2028-2034.

That financial issues are among the most critical topics was quite expected, especially at a time like the present, where the Union is called to face extremely complex challenges, including the Ukraine issue, the progressive disengagement of the U.S. within NATO, and the environmental transition.

Work on the new budget has been ongoing for months, under strict confidentiality, as highlighted by many journalists. This method, dictated by the President’s Chief of Staff, Bjoern Seibert, is characterized by secrecy and compartmentalization of work, revealing only what is strictly necessary during the final phases[1].

The anticipated elements were indeed crucial to the entire initiative, involving greater economic effort and a structure very different from the past, and significantly more flexible. In fact, from the initial documents presented, it seems the structure has profoundly changed, with 4 sections instead of the previous 7, including: National and Regional Partnership Plans, the Competitiveness Fund, the Global Europe program, along with the administrative capacity initiative.

Additionally, perhaps the most significant novelty is the proposal for a strengthened budget capacity compared to the past, estimated at around 2,000 billion euros, equal to 1.26% of Gross National Income, significantly higher than the current MFF's 1.13%.

As announced by President von der Leyen, a central role will be played by agricultural and cohesion policies, which will be implemented through unified national plans. These will impact agriculture and fisheries (with announced allocations of 300 billion and 2 billion respectively), as well as social inclusion, employment, and skills development.

In this regard, it was clarified that at least 14% of national allocations will be dedicated to social objectives like inclusion and poverty reduction.

Additionally, a new European Competitiveness Fund is being launched, aiming to revitalize industry, innovate, and achieve strategic autonomy in key sectors such as space, defense, clean, and digital technologies. This fund will have an allocation of about 400 billion euros and will accompany the Horizon Europe Program.

Another particularly interesting aspect is the introduction of the Global Europe program, a strategic initiative with around 200 billion euros in funding, including a 15 billion reserve for responding to external crises, as well as for diplomacy and aid to Third Countries. Moreover, approximately 100 billion euros are planned to support Ukraine in promoting the reconstruction process.[2].

There are many innovations, which have also sparked numerous criticisms. Chief among these is the likely reluctance of many governments to fund such an extensive commitment as proposed by the Commission; challenges that will certainly arise during approval in the European Union Council.

This won’t be the only controversial aspect, given concerns about the new management of Cohesion funds, which markedly differ from the past, and the introduction of new measures to generate revenue. These are all highly sensitive issues that could quickly complicate the Commission's negotiation proposal[3].

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