Strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea

Translated by Giulia Maffeis

During his last visit to North Korea last June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a deal with his counterpart Kim Jong Un. Later, the North Korean dictator elevated the pact to an alliance. The deal includes a commitment to mutual support with all means at their disposal if either party faces aggression, though it doesn't include any automatic triggers. It also formalises technical-military cooperation, including the shipment of ammunition for the war in Ukraine from Pyongyang and technology and food transfers from Moscow.

The signing of this agreement takes place in an international context, not favourable to both signing nations, due to the already-mentioned war in Ukraine and the development of North Korea's nuclear program. Based on what has been written, this agreement could be considered an attempt to reinforce the front of countries opposed to the current U.S.-led international order. The signing nations are politically supported by the Chinese superpower, which also has a mutual defence clause with Pyongyang, is heavily involved in regional dynamics, and is a significant voice for contesting and reforming the current global system.

From the Chinese point of view, the growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia could undermine the near-exclusive influence Beijing currently holds over Pyongyang. Moreover, the excessive polarization of the region could lead to a conflictual dynamic between blocs opposed to the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

For this reason, China has been very clear and careful with framing relations between the three countries as bilateral relationships rather than a coalition. China desires to keep some freedom of manoeuvre rather than be trapped in a polarizing agreement in Northeast Asia. This would eliminate China's ability to maintain good relations with the West, especially with Europe, Japan, and South Korea. A coalition with Russia and North Korea could bury this prospect.

Considering the points discussed so far, to evaluate the political cohesion among these three nations, in the absence of a defined multilateral framework, it's necessary to consider the existing bilateral relationships between the individual states.

From a historical point of view, the relationship between Russia and China has been marked by considerable fluctuations, with times of high tension if not open hostility. Following the end of the Soviet experience and the subsequent weakening of the Russian state, the two states experienced a period of diplomatic and economic rapprochement. This caused the development of shared institutions, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS group, and mutual support within the United Nations Security Council. This support hasn't been lacking, following Russia's aggression in Ukraine. However, currently, there is no treaty binding the two powers in a formal alliance, and they sometimes have divergent and conflicting interests, such as in Central Asia and India. Russia keeps diplomatic and economic interactions with the latter, including the supply of arms, opposite to China, which has hostile relations with it.

From an economic point of view,  Russia depends heavily on China, which is its main trading partner. However, in 2023, Russia was only the sixth-largest trading partner of China. The two economies show a high level of complementarity: Russia is rich in raw materials, while China has a strong need for these resources. Currently, Russian exports to China are heavily dominated by the energy field, which represented over half of Russian exports in 2020. However, according to some analysts, the spread of electric cars and heavy investments in renewable energy could gradually reduce China's dependence on Russian raw materials and change the nature of the relationship between the two nations.

Diplomatic relations between Russia and North Korea before the war in Ukraine were characterized by a certain distance, despite the precedents between North Korea and the Soviet Union, with Moscow supporting sanctions against Pyongyang at the UN. However, the invasion of Ukraine has provided a basis for political convergence between the two countries. North Korea has provided diplomatic support to Russia by recognizing the independence of Ukraine's separatist provinces under Moscow's control. Russian political support gives North Korea protection and impunity from other Security Council condemnations regarding missile and satellite launches in violation of international law.

Over the years,  numerous frictions have taken place between China and North Korea. Beijing has supported sanctions against Pyongyang at the UN, despite China being North Korea's main trading partner and there being a mutual defence treaty between the two countries. Furthermore, China hasn't actively supported North Korea in its conflict with the United States.

In conclusion, the current strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea seems destined to consolidate and persist, considering the international isolation that both countries are facing. However, fully involving China in this alliance seems problematic, considering the significant economic and political relations Beijing is maintaining with Europe and pro-Western countries. Beijing currently seems to prefer keeping separate bilateral relations instead of joining a trilateral alliance that could further polarize the region. However, unless Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang give up their expansionist aspirations—currently a remote possibility—this kind of dynamic seems inevitable. This could aggravate regional processes, sustaining the ongoing polarization.

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