About the complex situation in the South China Sea

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

Incidents like a Chinese military helicopter following a plane from the Philippines Fisheries Department have been commonplace over the last 50 years. Such incidents have made the situation in the South China Sea extremely tense due to a series of territorial disputes between neighboring countries.

South China Sea and China

South China Sea is one of the world’s main trade routes. According to the United Nation Conference on Trade and Development, over 21% of global trade – worth around $3.37 trillion – passed through these waters in 2016. Additionally, the region is rich in marine resources, which provide a livelihood for millions of locals: half of the world’s fishing boats operate in this area. Due to limited exploration, the exact quantity of natural resources in the region remains unclear. Current estimates are based on projections that consider the abundance of mineral resources in the surrounding areas.

China claims a large portion of the South China Sea, delineated by the so-called “nine-dash line”. This line was first drawn by China in 1947 to assert its territorial claims. The “nine-dash line” extends hundreds of kilometers southeast of the Hainan region, forming a ‘U’ shape. According to Beijing, historical evidence legitimizes their claim, emphasizing that the Paracel and Spratly archipelagos have long been considered part of the Chinese territory.

Other demands

Critics of China’s claims question the famous map, pointing out that the “nine-dash line” covers almost the entire South China Sea without precise coordinates.

While Taiwan is claiming nearly the same territories included within the “nine-dash line”, Vietnam is one of the main opponents of China’s historical narratives. Vietnam asserts that it has been actively governing both the Paracels and Spratly islands since the 17^th century and is prepared to support this claim with numerous documents. Furthermore, Vietnam emphasizes that China made no claims to these islands before 1940.

The Philippines are also a key player in this territorial dispute, claiming sovereignty over part of the Spratly islands based on geographic proximity. Additionally, both the Philippines and China assert their rights to the Scarborough Shoal – referred to as Huangyang Island by China – located 160km from Philippines and 800km from China.

Finally, both Malesia and Brunei claim rights to certain areas of the South China Sea, which they argue fall within their exclusive economic zones, citing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Apart from the parts directly involved in the territorial dispute, other countries are participating in various ways. For example, despite officially taking no position on the matter, the United States has sent military ships and planes near the dispute islands on multiple occasion, describing these missions as “freedom of navigation” operations. Similarly, Japan has been sending ships and military equipment to countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, aligning itself with U.S. efforts.

Diplomatic incidents and Chinese point of view

In recent years, the situation in the South China Sea has raised significant concern, with the fear that the region could become a global flashpoint. One of the first major incidents occurred in 1974 when China killed over 70 Vietnamese soldiers to seize control of the Paracel Islands. The two countries clashed again in 1988, this time over the Spratly Islands, where Vietnam lost around 60 sailors. 

While recent incidents have been less severe compared to those of the late 20^th century, tensions continue. For instance, in early 2023, the Philippines accused China of temporarily blinding the crews of Filipino ships using lasers. 

More recently, on September 25, 2024, the Philippines reported another similar incident, accusing a Chinese military helicopter of following a plane from the Philippines Fisheries Department.

The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) think tank recently released a report on the naval and aerial disputes in the region. The report highlighted, from a Chinese perspective, four friction conditions, that necessitates the intervention of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

The first condition involves the necessity of PLA intervention when foreign forces approach mainland China, Chinese territorial water, or Chinese airspace.

The second condition concern the entry of foreign forces “within 12 nautical miles (22 km) of areas controlled by China in the Spartly Islands or on at Scarborough Shoal”, which is one of the most contentious issues.

The third condition identified in the report is that the PLA will issue warning and expel foreign forces, particularly when U.S. forces enter the territorial waters or airspace of the Paracels as part of the so-called ‘freedom of navigation’ operations, which are seen as direct challenge by the U.S.

Finally, the fourth condition arises when foreign forces “come excessively close to or invade PLA military exercises, including live-fire drills”.

Conclusion

To conclude, the South China Sea is not only one of the most important trade routes in the world but also a focal point for territorial disputes that could have disastrous global consequences. In recent years, China has initiated a new phase in this dispute by creating artificial islands in the archipelagos and rapidly installing radars and military systems to expand its territory and legitimize its claim over the surrounding areas according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The continuously evolving situation makes it difficult to predict future developments. Therefore, constant and thorough monitoring is required to maintain a balance of power and to keep track of the efforts of both the directly and indirectly involved actors.

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