Ukraine, pursuing peace?

"Pursuing Peace"

The next steps are going to be the hardest. Donald Trump insists, "Putin and Zelenskyy should meet", warning that "there may be consequences" for Moscow if they don't. "Let's see what happens in a week or two, at that point I will decide." However, the tycoon has acknowledged that "it is up to them, not us." The US president seems to understand the complexity of the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. He recognizes not only the impossibility of pausing the fights, but also simply making the two dueling presidents meet. "Putting them together is as hard as mixing oil and vinegar", admits the White House resident. He will take two weeks to decide how to act: "We could impose heavy sanctions, duties or both. But we could also not do a single thing and say: this is your battle." And this last option is exactly the one that Kyiv fears the most.

On one hand, Putin does not plan to reach a peace agreement soon, since his troops are currently advancing in the Donbass region. The Russian president appears to be available during peace talks, but in reality he's postponing the agreement as much as possible. An attitude that irritated Donald Trump, who would like to find a solution quickly. On the other hand, Zelenskyy can't accept Moscow's request of conceding the Donbass territories without a security guarantee for Kyiv from the USA (and Europe).

Security guarantees and no territorial cession
During the National Flag Day, Zelenskyy has been firm in his stance: "We won't give up our land to the occupant." However, Putin won't stop autonomously; joint pressure is needed. "Our main goal - said the Ukrainian president - is a reliable and lasting peace for Ukraine and for Europe all." And it is important that the impetus of all our meetings leads precisely to this result." Therefore, pressure must be joint in order to work well, a pressure made from Europe and the United States together.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, warned against accepting weak security guarantees in negotiations with Russia. "Ukraine made this mistake once, in 1994, with the Budapest Memorandum", explained Klitschko on Welt TV. At the time, Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons - its arsenal was the third largest in the world, followed only by Washington and Moscow - in exchange for that, Russia promised to recognize the Ukranian independence and, although the West had assured Kyiv security guarantees in a political statement of intent, it did not stated any concrete guarantee of military assistance. This time, Klitschko warned that there must be really solid security guarantees. If Russia does not accept the entrance of Ukraine to Nato, "then we must find other structures for a long-term guarantee."

Independence Anniversary, between threats and promises
British intelligence warns that in Russia the use of drones is taught in more than 500 schools, with 2,500 teachers who have already received specific training. The British intelligence services link the training activity to the military offensive against Ukraine and highlight that the introduction of drone training in classrooms demonstrates the ongoing "militarization" of the Russian educational system. The Russian Minister of Education, Valery Falkov, announces the government's intentions to form one million specialists by 2030 and the future creation of a specific branch of the Armed Forces dedicated to drone operations.

Possible help in terms of security for Kyiv might come from Beijing. In fact, China may be willing to send soldiers to Ukraine as part of a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission. German newspaper Welt reported the news, citing diplomatic EU sources that are in touch with Chinese ones. These sources stressed, however, that the Beijing government would only be ready to participate "if peacekeeping forces were established under a United Nations mandate." In the meantime, the US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, visited Kyiv during the Ukrainian Independence Day, on August 24th.

Thirty-four years later, Ukraine is still dealing with the legacy of Soviet rule. The threat is no longer the USSR, but rather Vladimir Putin's expansionist aims and historical revisionism. Kyiv has asked for safety guarantees to the West and requested a face-to-face meeting with the Russian president. But neither Washington (and Bruxelles) nor Moscow are giving an answer.