Translated by Silvia Toro
On
April 14 the Chinese President XI Jinping went to on a five-day tour
in three countries in Southeast Asia, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia, and
Cambodia. Although this trip was likely planned a long time ago, it
has certainly become an important opportunity to deepen and
strengthen his neighborhood diplomacy and gain something from the
instability and pressure caused by the trade war initiated by the
Trump administration. Indeed, Xi has paid attention to presenting
China as an ally that can provide and advocate for what Washington is
jeopardizing: stability, peace, prosperity, and regional economic
integration.
Despite the 90-day pause granted, the ASEAN trade bloc countries are the most affected by the April 2nd mutual duties: Cambodia is imposed a 49% duty, Vietnam a 46% duty, and Malaysia a 24% duty. Considering that these three economies were heavily dependent on exports to the United States, these data sound even more shocking. More specifically, US exports represented 38% of the overall exports of Cambodia, while in Vietnam’s and Malaysia's were respectively the 34% and 16%.
This is the situation China decided to step in. Strengthening the economic and commercial ties with neighbors, consolidating a reciprocal cooperation, and restating the idea of belonging to the same community with a shared destiny: this is the core strategy of Beijing against the rising American unilateralism and protectionism, which are ruining the global economic order and the multilateral trade system. “Together we will safeguard the bright prospects of our Asian family”, stated Xi during his stay in Malaysia.
Without
any doubt, the Southeastern tour has had significant consequences,
such as strengthening bilateral ties with the countries visited. In
each one of them, the Chinese president has indeed concluded and
signed several deals (45 with Vietnam, 31 with Malaysia, and 37 with
Cambodia), aiming to deepen the cooperation between the parties in
several areas, including digital, environmental, infrastructure,
technology, industry, and agriculture. In Vietnam, for example, they
agreed to build a new railroad to physically connect northern Vietnam
and southern China. Moreover, Beijing promised Hanoi that it would
open its markets to more Vietnamese agricultural goods. This would
allow the ally to diversify its economic dependence and be less
exposed to United States tariffs. In Malaysia, Xi and Prime Minister
Anwar Ibrahim strengthened their industrial cooperation, highlighting
the "Two Countries, Twin Parks" initiative. They also
established the "Joint Foreign and Defense Dialogue Mechanism"
to foster security and defense coordination. Finally, during the last
leg of his trip, Xi concluded deals with Phnom Penh regarding
renewable energies and did not forget to reaffirm his support for the
Funan Techo Canal project, which involves constructing a channel that
connects the Mekong River and the Kep port. Surely the trip and the
deals align perfectly with the strategic initiative of the New Silk
Road to promote connections in the Eurasian region through projects
in various areas, creating new development opportunities for all.
However, the Chinese strategy has its limits. Many Southeastern countries are reluctant to cooperate with just one side. Aspiring to a strategic autonomy and refusing to be absorbed by the rivalry between the two superpowers, more of the countries prefer to maintain a strategic balance with other powers and, in fact, they do not hide the choice of dealing in private with the United States as well. Other than that, it's important to remember that these deals don't eliminate underlying territorial disputes with China, such as those concerning the South China Sea. The Chinese approach to the matter raises security concerns for the neighboring countries that overlook the sea and that claim the territory.
Consequently,
although the trip Xi took in Southeast Asia yielded some positive
results, especially in terms of strengthening relationships and
cooperation between Beijing, Kuala Lumpur, and Phnom Penh, it is
difficult to believe that this will change the global balance.
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