IAEA alarm over Iran's nuclear program

Translated by Federico Emanuele

The report published in recent days by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the technological advancements achieved by Iran in the nuclear field has generated significant concerns. At a time of great international instability in the Middle East, such as the current one, the possibility of the Islamic Republic of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon could inevitably escalate tensions in the region.

For this very reason, the IAEA report aims to highlight the gravity of the issue, pushing as much as possible for the swift reopening of negotiations under the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): the last negotiation table, that had painstakingly led to an agreement specifically aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear efforts.

With the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the agreement under the Trump Administration in 2018, the situation quickly deteriorated, as evidenced by the report published by the Agency. Within approximately six months, Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium increased significantly, reaching 274.8 kilograms compared to 182.3 kilograms in November, an alarming rise of 92.5 kilograms since the last recorded measurement.

This latest figure is particularly concerning, as it underscores the rapid technological progress that is bringing Iran closer to the 90% enrichment threshold required for nuclear weapons.

The quarterly report concludes by highlighting that, over the past three months, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile has increased to 8,294.4 kilograms, marking a rise of 1,690.0 kilograms compared to the last report in November[1].

In light of these findings, the matter will once again fall into the hands of political decision-makers, even though the IAEA continues to play a crucial role. Since its founding in the 1950s, the Agency has worked to promote the peaceful use of atomic energy while also serving as an independent organization tasked with verifying compliance by member states with obligations stemming from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and other non-proliferation agreements that regulate and restrict the use of nuclear materials and facilities for exclusively peaceful purposes.

This is in addition to its efforts in nuclear non-proliferation through verification activities under safeguard agreements signed with Non-Nuclear Weapon States that are part of the NPT. Under this treaty, these states have the legitimate right to develop nuclear programs for civilian purposes, and the NPT entrusts the IAEA with ensuring that such states do not divert nuclear energy for non-peaceful purposes[2].

However, this vital role is now at risk due to the political decision of several countries to limit multilateralism in many strategic sectors.

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