Test on European credibility: the European Union approves the new 2040 target on the eve of COP30

Translated by Francesca Valsecchi

For the past ten years, since the signing of Paris Agreement on behalf of all 27 Member States, the European Union has been trying to affirm itself as a global leader in the fight against climate crisis.With the aim to keep the increase of global temperatures within +1,5° compared to pre-industrial levels, Brussels has taken on ambitious and innovative commitments, with the goal to become the first climate neutral continent in the world by 2050.

A pioneer role that the European Union wants to reassert today, but on the eve of Belém (Brazil) COP30, taking place from November 10, it seems tried by internal tensions and difficult compromises

The road towards 2040 target

Within the frame of Paris Agreement, which started off a universal plan of action to fight climate change, the EU is required to submit every five years a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) on behalf of the Member States.

Even though the NDCs are not legally binding, they are key instruments: they turn emission reduction targets into concrete and measurable commitments, defining the collective journey and the level of Europe’s ambition on the global scene.

Over time, these contributions have defined the evolution of European climate politics, tracking the progress of the measures taken to honour Paris commitments.

In the middle of the strategy there is still the European Green Deal (2019), the big plan which has turned ecological transition into a sustainable and competitive growth engine. The European Climate Law (2021), its cutting edge, has made the reduction of emissions by 55% by 2030 target, the so-called Fit for 55, legally binding, together with the aim of climate neutrality by 2050.

After having reached the -20% by 2020 target in advance, in 2024 the European Commission raised the stakes with an even more ambitious proposal: to reduce the emissions by 90% by 2040.

The amendment to the European Climate Law, proposed last July, aims to make this new target official and to set a plan of action after 2030, which is in line with the obligations of Paris Agreement, simplifying processes, promoting convergence between sectors and guaranteeing that the transition remains fair and competitive.

Internal divisions and difficult compromises

However, the political path towards the new NDC proved far from straightforward, intertwining with the proposal of the emission reduction by -90% by 2040.

Neither in September nor in October did the ministers of environment manage to find an agreement, neither on 2035 forecasts nor on the final target. They only approved a statement of intent and later a provisional orientation.

The divisions between Member States and between the Council and the Commission itself on 2035-2040 intermediate targets proved to be deep. Some governments accused Brussels of “having lost touch with reality”, thinking that the new ambitions were ignoring the industrial and social problems of the different States.

In attempt to overcome the deadlock, the Commission introduced a controversial proposal under negotiation: returning to the use of international carbon credits, allowing Member States to compensate up to 3% of their emissions through environmental projects in developing countries. 

For more industrialized economies, this option represents a realistic compromise to protect the industry and European citizens, giving more time to adapt and at the same time respecting the reduction targets.

From another perspective, international credits are a shortcut to avoid internal structural cuts. NGOs, green parties and scientists declared this action as a kind of “climate relieve of responsibilities” of richer countries and a missed opportunity to invest in internal decarbonisation.

Also the European Scientific Advisory Board has pointed out that the externalization risks to jeopardize the transparency of monitoring on which the 2040 target relies.

On the eve of November 4 Council, the Commissioner for Climate Teresa Ribera, firmly affirmed: “delaying the action or lowering ambitions means wasting resources and losing an investment opportunity.”

A race against time before Belém

On November 5, after more than 20 hours negotiations and on the eve of Belém bilateral, the EU approved by a majority of votes an NDC which estimates an approximate reduction contribution between 66,25% and 72,5% by 2035.

The European Union commits itself to triple the global capacity of renewable energy and to double the energy efficiency rate by 2030.

The environmental Council has therefore reached an agreement on the reduction by 90% by 2040 target, which is bound to become legally binding. As to foster the agreement, a bigger flexibility has been given: the EU will be able to externalize up to 5% of the emissions through green projects abroad, making the effective target equal to around -85%. International credits of high quality will have a trial phase starting from 2031, before becoming effective in 2036.

Hungary, Poland and Slovakia voted against the compromise, while Belgium and Bulgaria abstained.

Now the political debate on the 2040 climate target goes to the European Parliament, which is getting ready to define its own position. The Environment Committee could vote already next week. Once the Parliament and the Council take their respective positions, inter-institutional negotiations will begin. In parallel, the Commission will start reviewing the sectorial policies in order to adjust them to the new target, expected for the second half of next year.

Europe and the coherence challenge

The reached compromise marks stability between ambition and pragmatism little before COP30, reaffirming the bond between the European climate leadership and the spirit of Paris Agreement. However, the negotiation having been blocked for months on the “connecting ring” between Fit for 55 and climate neutrality has affected the EU’s credibility as a climate finance leader on the international scale.

António Guterres, UNO Secretary General, and the Brazilian president Lula were expecting a clear position already in September, in view of the definition of the “Baku to Belém Financial Roadmap”, a plan of 1,3 trillion dollars aimed at sustaining climate actions in developing countries, which had been proposed last year during Baku’s COP. 

The delay has risked causing strong diplomatic tensions: developing countries were expecting a solid and ambitious position before summer. The internal paralysis, which got worse because of the withdrawal of the US a few days before the meeting, put the EU in front of a political test on credibility.

The capability of the EU to show itself coherent and determinate in Belém after internal negotiations will be decisive not only for the success of the whole multilateral process - in a moment when the emission reduction target is at a crucial point itself - but also to confirm that leading role that ten years ago in Paris made the EU the heart of the global fight against climate change

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