By Ahsan Ali
The ascendance of US President Donald Trump into second term came with seismic change into the global structure and policies. Where domestically the US had faced an overhaul of policies and institutional change with President Trump firmly committing to its pledges with overt changes. Similarly, in the foreign policy sphere, Trump came with a heavy hand of change with its treating allies as adversaries and uphold of traditional friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The “24 hours” end of Ukraine war was one of the election pledge which President Trump is attempting to go on with more benign to Russia and its actions in Ukraine. The unpredictable moves of Trump with besetting Secretary of State Marco Rubio meeting Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh with complete sideline of European Union and Ukraine, has rattled. With last stroke observed with verbal spat of US President and Vice-President JD Vance with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, with accusations of thanklessness, making jolt across Europe. There is nothing deniable that President Trump bureaucratic style in the politics is more dominating with finding profits rather than leadership of attaining real solution to the problems. The backoff of the US was more realized by someone in the Europe, which in the Cold War and in the post-Cold War era to today had seen the US dominance with suspicion. The realization came up with French President Emmanuel Macron, who realized this, when British Keir Starmer and French President meeting of Trump being more open on “diplomatic odds” rather than allies with understanding. French President Macron had taken the similar approach with understanding on taking the new European security to under its own borders and continent as felt by the previous century predecessor of Macron. In surface of Trump Euro-skeptic stance previously, and now, the policy may change in European capitals and Macron may lead the path.
The French understanding since the Cold War era is not amicable towards the Americans and the British as then French President and leader Charles de Gaulles withdrawal from NATO military command in 1966. The assessment came with the US more close to the British rather than French and de Gaulles on the Europeans to find their own military independence rather than look towards the US. De Gaullesinitial placement came on the “Inner Six” (France, Luxembourg, West Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Netherlands) of Europe, which are the founding members of the European Union. Due to the economic destruction and political upheaval with reluctance to allow Germany to have armament, Europe couldn’t follow Gaulles thought but France developed its nuclear capabilities. With the first presidency of Trump, then German-chancellor Angela Merkel and President Macron endorsed on joint “European Army” in 2018. The Gaullist thought is making moves and back into minds, as President Macron endorses more Eurocentric security independent policy instead of relying on the US. Where the US, is increasingly becoming unpredictable, and the next five years of President Trump, Europe may get into hands with President Macron into finding the military independence solution ultimately. Where previously, NATO members, had more GDP spending on the economy rather than the NATO and defense, now they are increasingly becoming focused on the defense of Europe and their countries. Between 2021 and 2024, defense spending in the EU increased by 30% with 1.9% of GDP, but now stakes are higher than before. The thought carry big vision as the new defense spending may change internally with Poland, Germany, already announcing their own defense and military spending increasing. The continent may need the leadership and after UK departure from EU, France, and Germany are jointly observed as the leaders of EU with their mammoth economies. French President Macron increasingly understands the signals of White House to get more independence, with Trump comments on increased spending, despite all spending more than 2%. Although, upcoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, had pledged for increased defense spending, by time, it will be more evident on how it’ll pursue its foreign policy and engagement with Brussels, Paris, and Washington.
Trump presidency will deeply allow Europe, and UK, to rethink on its defense spending and to go for independent defense structure under Paris, and Berlin, for the continent. Where Ukraine, is not the member of NATO, and will not be a member in the current scenario, the new structure may pass some security guarantees for Ukraine in the shape of any future Russian aggression. Although, the dynamics present a“imposed peace deal” can be reached between Ukraine and Russia under the Trump administration but EU spending or backing of Ukraine may influence the events further, including the negotiations. It is understandable that Macron, will not leave Zelensky to face Trump, and Vance, alone, rather, he and Starmer may accompany him to the negotiations between Zelensky and Trump for minerals deal and security. Where the past presidency was gloomy of President Trump, current presidency, with Russian invasion makes Paris past prospects of European Army into the “factuality.” Macron potentially may provide nuclear deterrence to the EU and Ukraine as the world in resetting. Further the Gaullist approach will openly coming out of shadows from Paris to Brussels, with defining strategy of Europe to defend itself, as it had relied on the US for long. Where the defense spending had been less previously, the GDP spending domestically may increase in most capitals, with joint mechanisms of military cooperation, and intelligence sharing. The short-time may fill the vacuum of Europe with a lot of insecurities before facing the charge of Russia, and the French may lead the charge alongside Germans in the European continent. Where NATO alliance may remain “steadfast” the European security architecture may change with potential internal reformation and advancement potentially with Paris and Brussels making decisions. The Gaullism may dominate the next 20 years, if the US presidency remain Euro-skeptic with Trump relatives or Trump-minded politicians taking the charge in the White House. The French under Macron may take the striking ideas of Charles de Gaulles further reintegration of EU under military and defense mechanisms, and taking the significance of self-protection. The Ukraine issue made Macron understand on how important the integrated, and powerful European security structure is needed, especially with Trump ascension to the presidency. Although considered bureaucratic on the EU internal system at the time of 2014–15, now the need of change is arguably understandable, especially on the diplomatic and policy shift from the US. Where President Macron previous comments on European “strategic autonomy” has created controversy and not paid heeds by the European capitals, now the focus is on the Paris on how it sets the new relations with the US. Munich Conference further casted understanding on the Europeans, on making the Europe more efficient on weapon technology. The boat ahead carries issues of mechanisms in operating the European Army but carries the understanding on how urgent on new European security outlook. The EU states which may come on such quest of “European Army” may had to sacrifice the welfare state, with more taxes imposed, or spend their money more wisely on defense structure under Paris-Berlin leadership. The rhetoric of Russian invasion may on course as the Russo-Ukrainian peace deal may change the borders of Ukraine and Russia with Russian controversial proverb of “Russian border never ends.” Internally, France may face Elon Musk interference by supporting National Rally party of Marine Le Pen who carries Trump’s allying vision. Musk may attempt indirectly to change such independent military policies discourse by supporting far-right or Euro-skeptic parties, as it did in Germany Alternativ for Deustchland (AFD) of Alice Weidel, where AFD had already won second most seats in the elections. European capitals where pro-Moscow, or pro-Trump head of governments such as Italian Prime Minister GiorgiaMeloni Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban or Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico holds the office, but both have understand the need of European defense to be robustly calibrate with defense structure. The French forces in the European continent are with experience and has faced different adversaries at different places with rugged mountains of Afghanistan, sand dunes of Western Africa, and nominal peace missions in Iraq, and Syria. As recently French nuclear umbrella was cautiously welcomed by the European leaders of Poland, and the Baltic states, which faces Russia geographically direct on the threat and welcomed French leadership. The strategic significance of French can be determined as it alongside UK holds the nuclear arsenal but as compared to UK, French is more being confronted with the threat of Russia and taking on the deal of shifting global dynamics, with leading European security. As the previous presidents have somewhere aspired to take the European security from Europe, France under Macron, is increasingly facing the shifting security dynamics of the Europe, with changing US position. The world may face the change under the coming months, and years, with French President Macron increasingly take the Europeans on the independent path if military autonomy under French Gaullism.
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