Framing Africa & Mena

Translated by Maria Teresa Mazzoccoli

‘Framing the World’ is an analysis column offering in-depth insights into the key dynamics of international politics. The column is organized by geographic region—Asia, the Americas, Africa & MENA, and Europe—and each week features a thematic focus comprising several coordinated articles. The aim is to provide clear and accessible analysis of major global developments through the collaborative work of the editorial team.

All this and much more in the latest issue of FtW!

The Sahel: the birth of the AES Confederation and Africa’s new geopolitical architecture

The West African geopolitical scenario is undergoing a radical transformation that is disrupting the old post-colonial balances and reshaping the continent’s security landscape. At the root of this turning point lies the consolidation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which was established in September 2023 and has formally evolved into a confederation bringing together Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This geopolitical bloc marks a break with the past: the three countries have, in fact, severed ties with their traditional Western partners – led by France and the United States – by leaving the G5 Sahel and formalising their definitive withdrawal from ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States), which the ruling military juntas accuse of failing to ensure security and of being excessively subservient to pressure from Paris.

On a strictly military level, the Confederation has responded to the growing cross-border mobility of jihadist groups by taking a decisive step: the establishment and deployment of the United Forces in the Southern African Region (UF-SAER). This unified multinational force, under the command of General Daouda Traoré of Burkina Faso and officially presented in Bamako, deploys 5,000 soldiers equipped with ground, air, and intelligence units to patrol the highly turbulent border areas. As UF-SAER spokesperson General Mody emphasised, the aim is to ensure a coordinated response and to fill the void left by the Western troops withdrawal, alongside a decisive diversification of strategic alliances that sees new global partners such as Russia and China entering the region.

However, the AES project is not limited to security considerations; it also aims to bring about a true long-term process of economic decolonisation, which enjoys strong popular support. To replace the trade network previously provided by ECOWAS and to curb structural poverty in the region, the Confederation has planned the establishment of the AES Investment Bank and a dedicated stabilisation fund. Through these financial instruments, the plan would aim not only to guarantee local populations access to land, water, healthcare, and food security, but also to industrialise the area by maintaining direct control over the strategic mineral and energy resources beneath the Sahelian subsoil.

Alice Balan

Crisis in the Sahel: the extremely serious humanitarian consequences of what is happening in West Africa

The profound political and security crisis currently ongoing in the Sahel results in a serious humanitarian crisis that is redefining the regional dynamics of West Africa. It is not merely a question of the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which can be seen as the result of a number of factors, including terrorism, the advance of jihadists, the ongoing climate crisis, and the multiple coups d’état which, taken together, make this part of Africa prone to being one of the most unstable regions in the world.

In fact, the humanitarian crisis is equally dramatic: although it is not in the international media spotlight, the figures presented by the major relevant organisations reveal a situation on the brink of collapse that is affecting around 24 million people. Figures provided by the UNHCR show that, in March 2026, the number of people who had been forced to leave their homes not only because of ongoing conflicts, but even more so because of climate change, severe famine, and the food crisis, stood at 4,979,626.

Not only that: around 3 million children have no access to education due to the closure of approximately 14,800 schools; and whilst the number of refugees and asylum seekers exceeds 2,367,223, there are more than 3,245,039 internally displaced persons. As mentioned, the figures provided by OCHA, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, confirm the gravity of the situation: currently, around 24.3 million people across the region are in need of humanitarian aid to counter the cost of the violence, which is currently being paid for with human lives.

The climate remains one of the aggravating factors in the situation, with global warming in the Sahel progressing at a faster rate than the global average, with consequences for agriculture. The result is food insecurity, which is estimated to affect around 15.4 million people who are already living in critical or emergency conditions.

Organisations such as the World Food Programme are currently on the ground, working to provide assistance and treat malnutrition, although their activities are limited by a lack of international funding, which is believed to be at an all-time low.

As a matter of fact, in 2025, only 29 per cent of humanitarian funding targets were met – the lowest percentage in the last decade – with a priority given to the most urgent needs and to supporting local networks, which act as a backbone even for the most hard-to-reach areas.

Anna Pasquetto

The Sahel crisis and the limits of international intervention: towards a new cooperation paradigm

Over the last few years, international cooperation in the Sahel region has played a key role in efforts to tackle a multidimensional crisis characterised by political instability, institutional fragility, armed violence, and the proliferation of non-state actors, particularly jihadist groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have been exposed to some of the most complex crises on the African continent and have become the main focus of international cooperation, the effects of which have had both positive and problematic consequences.

Organisations such as the United Nations, the EU, and numerous international NGOs have sought to strengthen the local communities resilience through humanitarian aid programmes, food security measures, healthcare support, and development initiatives targeting areas affected by forced displacement, climate change, and structural poverty. However, despite more than a decade of economic, political, and strategic investment by Europe, these efforts have been hampered by a series of coups d’état that took place between 2020 and 2023 in the main Sahelian countries.

The rise of new military juntas has marked a deep political break with Western partners. The European military missions operating in the region – particularly those supported by France and the European Union, as well as various Western organisations – have been forced to withdraw, accused of having reinforced forms of political dependence and of constituting external interference incapable of addressing the regional instability structural causes. At the same time, the gradual deterioration in security highlights the limitations of such strategies: in 2025 alone, more than half of the victims of global terrorism were recorded in the countries of the Sahel. In this framework, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have redefined their international partnerships, distancing themselves from Europe and drawing closer to new players such as Russia.

One interesting aspect concerns the case of Mauritania, which is often viewed as an exception within the Sahelian region. Whilst facing similar vulnerabilities to other countries in the Sahel, Mauritania has managed to significantly contain the spread of jihadism thanks to a strategy that has combined security cooperation, institutional strengthening, and the involvement of local communities in prevention policies. Overall, the case of the Sahel shows that international cooperation, when not accompanied by a genuine understanding of local dynamics and a strengthening of domestic governance, risks failing to achieve its objectives. In many cases, in fact, such interventions have ended up perpetuating patterns of dependency and asymmetrical relationships that recall still-latent forms of colonialism, in which international actors continue to set political, economic, and security priorities without any real involvement of local actors. In this context, it becomes clear that the aim of cooperation should not be limited to top-down or externally driven models of intervention, but should instead focus on long-term strategies based on local capacity building and an increasing degree of aid localisation, promoting sustainable responses that are more legitimate and genuinely led by the communities directly involved.

Bianca Mannino

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