Translated by Ramona Orefice
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Southeast Asia: The Middle East Crisis Tests ASEAN’s Energy Security
The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is laying bare one of Southeast Asia’s most critical vulnerabilities: its heavy reliance on external energy supplies. The issue returned to the forefront during the meeting of ASEAN Energy Ministers in Manila on October 7. Over half of the crude oil processed in the region’s refineries originates in the Middle East, while ongoing strikes against infrastructure and maritime trade routes have heightened exposure to price volatility. Compounding these concerns, China’s temporary suspension of petroleum product exports for October has further strained supply reliability.
The ripple effects are already being felt across domestic economies. Rising fuel prices are squeezing household budgets and eroding earnings for transport workers, as highlighted by recent strikes and protests in the Philippines. However, the challenge runs much deeper. According to the ASEAN Centre for Energy, a severe disruption in Middle Eastern supplies could jeopardize volumes equivalent to nearly 28% of the region’s final oil consumption. This structural dependence leaves Southeast Asian nations vulnerable to geopolitical shocks beyond their control, with direct ramifications for socio-economic stability.
The Manila talks underscored the urgent need to enhance collective resilience and mutual cooperation. Priority initiatives on the table include coordinated emergency response mechanisms and the potential development of regional petroleum stockpiles—a measure already under consideration in the Philippines. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain regarding adequate storage infrastructure and physical stock levels. While these mechanisms could help buffer future supply shocks, they are unlikely to deliver immediate relief for the ongoing crisis.
In the long term, the overarching objective must be curtailing reliance on imported fossil fuels. Accelerating renewable energy deployment, electrification, and regional grid interconnectivity through the ASEAN Power Grid could shield Southeast Asia from external geopolitical shocks. Ultimately, the Middle East crisis illustrates the extent to which the region’s energy stability remains tied to events far beyond its borders. For ASEAN, the decisive test will be transforming this shared vulnerability into deeper, structural integration that moves beyond short-term crisis management.
Federica Placidi
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