Framing The World, CXLIX Edition

Framing The World, CXLIX Edition

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

DRC, peace initiatives multiply. As rebels from the Rwandan-backed M23 armed group continue to advance threatening Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province, peace initiatives to stop the fighting in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are multiplying. On February 7 and 8, a summit was held in Tanzania convened by two regional organizations of which Rwanda and DRC are members, at the end of which an immediate and unconditional ceasefire was called for. On Feb. 12, envoys from the Congo National Bishops' Conference along with envoys from the Church of Christ in Congo (Protestants) traveled to Goma to meet with Corneille Nangaa, the man who presents himself as the political leader of the rebels and the head of an organization called the Congo River Alliance, which was formed in 2023 in opposition to Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi.

South Africa, stop U.S. aid. U.S. President Donald Trump on Feb. 7 ordered a halt to aid to South Africa because it passed an expropriation law that, according to Trump, discriminates against white South Africans. This group of the South African population has been offered political asylum in the United States. The measure, however, does not affect AIDS funds, which will continue for at least ninety days. But more than the aid freeze, Pretoria is concerned about the tightness of the Agoa trade agreement, which offers favorable terms for exports to the United States to many sub-Saharan African countries.

Aurelia Puliafito

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, Vance attacks Europe in Munich. During his speech at the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President JD Vance attacked Europe’s ideological identity, accusing it of suppressing free speech, failing to combat illegal immigration and fearing the true preferences of voters. “Democracy will not survive if their people’s concerns are deemed invalid or even worse not worth being considered” he stated. Arguing that the real threat to Europe does not come from Russia or China, but arises from within, Vance warned: “If you are running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you, nor for that matter is there anything you can do for the American people”.

United States of America, Vance and Zelenskyy on war and rare earth material. On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a bilateral meeting for about an hour to discuss the war between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian leader stated that his country seeks “security guarantees” and a joint U.S.-Ukrainian peace plan before opening dialogue with Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian delegation also presented a draft proposal offering access to rare earth mineral deposits in exchange for American support. Both representatives confirmed that further meetings will follow in the coming weeks.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

United States of America, the Adams case nears its end. On February 10th, the U.S. Department of Justice released an official memorandum instructing the Southern District of New York’s prosecution to drop all charges against Mayor Eric Adams.Adams, a Democrat and mayor since 2022, has been under federal investigation for corruption and fraud over the past two years, with high-ranking Turkish officials allegedly linked to the political history of the African-American mayor. Accused of receiving bribes for ten years, Adams spent the last few months doing everything he could to avoid conviction, particularly working to regain favor with newly elected President Donald Trump. His efforts seem to have paid off: the decision by the Department of Justice, led by Pam Bondi, a former Trump lawyer, has drawn much criticism but has assured Eric Adams a new candidacy in the upcoming municipal elections in November, and provided the Republicans with a new de facto ally within the Democratic ranks.

(Giovanni Ferrazza)

Lorenzo Graziani and Giovanni Ferrazza

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Brazil, Lula at all-time lows. According to the latest approval ratings conducted by Datafolha, only 24% of Brazilians would rate the Brazilian government’s performance as ‘good’ or ‘very good.’ What stands out is not just the evidently low percentage, but also the sharp decline reflected in the data over the past two months, dropping from 35% in December to 24% in February. As for those who rate the government’s actions negatively, this percentage has increased by 7 percentage points, from 34% to 41%, which serves as evidence of the government’s increasingly evident unpopularity. Among the causes linked to the loss of support are the rising inflation and the economic policies of Lula's government, which are failing to receive a positive response in the real economy. In short, these are unsettling figures for the Workers’ Party (PT), which appears fragile ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in 2026.

Mexico, president Sheinbaum warns Google. During a press conference on Thursday, February 13, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum addressed the controversial issue regarding the new naming of the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Sheinbaum emphasized that Google’s renaming of the Gulf in its navigation app is a serious mistake, justified by the fact that such an update should be limited to the portion of the sea belonging to the U.S. continental shelf and not, as has happened, to the entire Gulf area. Furthermore, should Google fail to meet the requests of the Mexican government, the President does not rule out the possibility of initiating a civil lawsuit against the Silicon Valley giant.

Lucas Torres

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

North Korea, missile tests continue. North Korea announced it had tested a cruise missile system, marking its third missile test since the beginning of the year, and threatened severe retaliation following joint US-South Korean exercises. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that the missiles, potentially carrying nuclear warheads, hit their targets after a flight of 1,500 kilometres. In a statement, the North Korean Foreign Ministry accused the US of carrying out ‘serious military provocations’ following last month's exercises with South Korea. Pyongyang regards these manoeuvres as dress rehearsals for an invasion, although Washington and Seoul have reiterated their purely defensive nature. In recent years, the US and South Korea have intensified the frequency of their military exercises in response to the progress of the North Korean nuclear programme.

Japan, Ishiba meets Trump. President Donald Trump said he wants to reduce the US trade deficit with Japan, welcoming Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to the White House for their first official meeting. Trump also said he did not rule out the imposition of tariffs against Japan, although he believed the issue could be resolved without punitive measures. Currently, the US has a $68 billion trade deficit with Japan. Trump's initiative to reduce the trade deficit is part of the broader context of his economic policy aimed at reviving American manufacturing. Ishiba stated that he understands Trump's intent, however, he also pointed out that over the past five years, Japanese companies have ranked first in cumulative foreign direct investment in the US.

(Francesco Oppia)

Washington, D.C. - Make India Great Again. In a historic meeting, US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a new agreement designed to strengthen economic, strategic and technological ties between the two superpowers. The US-India Compact for the 21st Century marks a partnership with a strong focus on expanding sales of advanced military armaments and technologies. The pact includes India's purchase of F-35 stealth fighters, while arms trade will continue to grow, consolidating a strategic link against common threats. On the security front, both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the Quad, the alliance between the US, India, Australia and Japan, which is essential to ensure stability and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region. A tangible step in this direction was the agreement to extradite one of the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks to face trial in India. On the defence front, the agreement also envisages increasing industrial cooperation for the joint development of new military technologies, focusing on the interoperability of armed forces, improving logistical capabilities, and strengthening the maintenance of military equipment. Cautious hopes on the part of the US President for a possible revision of tariff policies aimed at greater security.

(Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi)

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi and Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Austria, second attempt to form a government failed. After complex negotiations, the far-right Freedom Party (Fpö) and the Austrian People's Party (Övp) failed to reach an agreement. Fpö leader Herbert Kickl informed Federal President van der Bellen of his intention to give up his mandate to form a new government. Kickl ruled out negotiations with the Social Democrats (Spö), considering them unproductive due to differences on crucial issues. Kickl, in charge of finding a majority after the elections, had already started talks with the Övp, after negotiations with the Social Democrats and the Neos Liberals failed. His government would have been the first one led by the extreme right in Austria since the Second World War. The situation is unprecedented and a return to the ballot box is not excluded.

EU, up to 200 billion in investments for AI. The European Union has announced the creation of a EUR 20 billion fund for research and innovation in artificial intelligence, with the aim of mobilising investments of up to EUR 200 billion and competing with the US and China. The project involves the European Investment Bank and envisages the construction of four specialised giga-stations. Ursula von der Leyen stated that Europe aims to be a leader in the sector, emphasising the importance of fair access to computing power and the goal of developing industrial applications and promoting a cooperative approach based on open sources. The fund will be financed by public and private resources, with 30 billion already earmarked in addition to the announced 150 billion in private funds. Brussels intends to create the largest public-private partnership in the field of AI, ensuring innovation and competitiveness.

Bianca Franzini

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, new tariffs on the way. President Trump has directed to consider reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, accusing the global system of penalizing the US. The measure, signed Thursday, tasks the Department of Commerce and the Trade Representative with proposing new tariffs on a country-by-country basis by April 1. These tariffs aim to offset not only the duties imposed on the U.S., but also non-tariff barriers such as subsidies and import regulations. In particular, Trump cited the EU, Japan and South Korea as examples of countries that take unfair advantage of the U.S., but the hardest hit should be developing countries, as they, on average, impose higher tariffs on U.S. products. Markets have so far reacted positively, interpreting the decision as an opening for negotiations rather than a definitive move. However, uncertainty remains high, with the risk of price increases and global trade tensions, although the Trump administration maintains that the duties will not have a significant impact on inflation and could, on the contrary, benefit the U.S. economy.

U.S., inflation picking up. Inflation is back on the rise in the United States, with the CPI consumer price index rising 0.5% in January, the largest increase since August 2023, driven mainly by food, fuel and housing costs. In contrast, the core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% against the +0.3% expected, mainly due to increases in auto insurance, airfares and pharmaceuticals. Food prices, especially eggs (+15%), rose significantly, as did housing prices (+0.4% monthly), accounting for 30% of the total CPI increase, while even excluding housing and energy, services rose 0.8%, the largest increase in a year. Despite the seasonal trend of rising prices in January, the data suggest that inflation is not falling as expected, thus keeping the Fed in a wait-and-see mode and making further rate cuts during 2025 unlikely.

Nissan, what future? Honda has ruled out a hostile takeover of Nissan after the failure of a proposed $58 billion merger that would have created the world's fourth-largest automaker. The merger was intended to strengthen the two manufacturers' competitiveness against Chinese manufacturers, but foundered over governance disagreements with Nissan, which feared losing autonomy. Nissan, in deep financial trouble, is now considering all options to survive, including a restructuring plan that calls for 6,500 layoffs and savings of $2.5 billion by 2026. Shortly thereafter came an expression of interest from Foxconn, which said it was interested in buying the 36% stake in Nissan held by Renault. The Taiwanese company, which has long aimed to enter the electric vehicle sector, could be a new strategic partner for Nissan in EV production and development, in addition to providing a major cash injection to the company.

Google, a disappointing quarter. Alphabet suffered a sharp drop on Wall Street (-8%, $200 billion of capitalization wiped out) after releasing quarterly accounts that showed disappointing growth in the cloud division and the announcement of $75 billion in 2025 investments in AI. Although cloud revenues rose 30% to nearly $12 billion in the fourth quarter, they missed analysts' forecasts and slowed from the previous quarter's +35%, with CFO Anat Ashkenazi attributing the downturn to demand exceeding Google's available capacity. Huge investments in data centers and advanced chips have also surprised the market, worried by the high costs of AI but also shaken by the DeepSeek model, which showed that AI models can be developed with fewer resources. Alphabet is also under pressure from government authorities both in the U.S., where it faces a possible breakup for monopolistic behavior, and in China, where an antitrust investigation into the Android operating system has been reopened.

Leonardo Aldeghi

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnect from Russian energy supplies. On February 8, 2025, the three Baltic states officially disconnected from Russia for electricity supply and connected to the European Union's energy grid. This decision had been officially announced six months ago, but Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania had been planning this move for years, with financial support from the EU. In fact, by 2023, the three countries had already almost entirely stopped purchasing Russian electricity, leading to a significant increase in energy prices. This is also a decision with major symbolic and political significance, depriving Moscow of a tool to directly influence these countries. However, it also exposes Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to potential sabotage of their energy infrastructure by Russia, as it has already happened in recent months.

Russia, Trump-Putin phone call. On February 12, 2025, in a phone call, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the war in Ukraine and possible conditions for a ceasefire, paving the way for negotiations. The two leaders may soon meet in Saudi Arabia, and Trump’s move appears to have caught the EU and Ukraine off guard, as they have not been invited to participate in any way. In fact, Trump called Zelensky only after speaking with Putin. Meanwhile, on the same day, at the NATO summit, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that it would be unrealistic for Ukraine to expect to restore its pre-2014 borders. Trump seems willing to consider Russian demands, including the definitive exclusion of Kyiv from NATO.

Silvia Pasetto

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Monaco, the Arab Initiative for Gaza: Riyadh Ready to Lead Reconstruction. Several Arab nations are actively working on a plan to rebuild the Gaza Strip. According to sources cited by Reuters, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a key player in shaping an alternative future for Gaza’s population, following Donald Trump’s suggestion of turning the enclave into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” Meanwhile, the King of Jordan has traveled to Washington to reaffirm his opposition to the U.S. proposal. The Jordanian Prime Minister also stressed the urgent need to rebuild Gaza as soon as possible, while making it clear that Jordan cannot accommodate more Palestinian refugees, noting that “35% of the country’s population is already made up of refugees.”

(Matteo Francescucci)

Lebanon, a new government. Unlike previous times, the Lebanese parties managed to agree on a new executive in an unprecedented timeframe for politics in the Levantine country. Without a government since 2022, after his investiture on 13 January, the new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam managed to organise a government cabinet in less than a month. There are two main factors that can explain this celerity. On the one hand, the political weakening of Hezbollah, which has lost two leaders in a short time and whose military structure has been severely annihilated in the clash with the Jewish state. On the other hand, the external intervention of the US, which has set as a red line the entry of the Shia terrorist group into the new executive.

(Michele Magistretti)

Matteo Francescucci and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Hamas Halts Hostage Release, Trump Threatens Retaliation. Hamas has announced an indefinite suspension of the Israeli hostage release scheduled for February 15. The group accuses Israel of violating the ongoing truce, further escalating tensions in the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump reacted strongly, warning Hamas that without the release of the hostages, “there will be hell to pay.” He also threatened to cut aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refuse to take in displaced people from Gaza. Israel has denied the accusations, stating that Hamas is using prisoners as a bargaining tool. The situation remains critical, with the risk of further escalation in the coming days.

ICC Investigates Italy Over Release of Libyan General Almasri. The International Criminal Court has launched an investigation into the Italian government following the release of Libyan General Njeem Osama Almasri. Arrested in Italy, Almasri was wanted for war crimes but was released under unclear circumstances. The ICC has demanded explanations from Rome, accusing Italy of failing to cooperate. The case could have significant diplomatic repercussions, as the Italian government has yet to issue an official response. According to diplomatic sources, the release may be linked to unofficial agreements with Libyan authorities. The investigation comes at a time of growing international scrutiny over Italy’s handling of relations with Libya.

Federica Placidi

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federica Placidi: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Giovanni Ferrazza: North America

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Latin America

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East

Silvia Pasetto: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia