Framing The World, CXXXX Edition

Framing The World, CXXXX Edition

In the 140th edition of Framing we monitor the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the evolution of the U.S. election campaign, and even increased EU tariffs against China and anti-government tensions in Pakistan.

All this and more in the latest issue of FtW!

HUMAN RIGHTS

France, Azerbaijani human rights defender assassinated. Vidadi Isgandarli, an Azerbaijani human rights activist in exile in France, died on October 1 in Mulhouse following a brutal attack in which he was stabbed over 20 times two days earlier. Isgandarli, a prominent critic of President Ilham Aliyev, had sought asylum in France in 2015 after facing persecution in his home country. This is not an isolated incident: in 2021, another Azerbaijani dissident, blogger Mahammad Mirzali, survived a similar attack in Nantes, where he was stabbed 16 times. 

(Sofia Ena) 

The EU and Italy are forced to stop cooperating with the Tunisian authorities, who are accused of serious human rights violations. Amnesty International Italy and other NGOs are calling for the cessation of all cooperation with the Tunisian authorities, as there is no national asylum system. Some journalistic investigations have revealed serious human rights violations committed against migrants, refugees and asylum seekers.Tunisia cannot be considered a safe place for the landing of people rescued at sea.

(Lisa Pasolini)

Sofia Ena, Lisa Pasolini 

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

China, anti-crisis measures. The Chinese government has announced in the past two weeks a series of important measures to halt the country's economic slowdown. First the Central Bank moved through the cutting of one of the benchmark short-term rates, a $113 billion liquidity injection and a 50 basis point lowering of interest rates charged on mortgages. Then the Politburo, headed by Xi Jinping, pre-announced a fiscal stimulus package for the real estate sector, the details of which have not yet been released but which aims to stabilise house prices after months of decline. Markets reacted enthusiastically and recorded their best week since 2008, with the Shanghai CSI 300 rising as much as +24 % in five sessions and with real estate stocks up more than 36%.

Europe, inflation dropping. Inflation continues to fall in major European economies, with declines in line with or above economists' forecasts . Italy's September figure fell from August's +1.2 % to +0.8 %, France's from 1.8 % to 1.2 % and Spain's from 2.3 % to 1.5 %, all well below the ECB's target of 2 %. These results strongly support expectations that interest rates will be cut by at least 25 basis points when the ECB meets on October 17, not least considering the continued slowdown that is affecting the European industrial sector and particularly the automotive sector.

EU, tariffs on China. Despite strong opposition from some countries, including Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary, member countries have approved the European Commission's proposal to raise tariffs currently applied to electric car imports from China. On top of the current 10% rate, an additional tariff will be levied for the next five years, varying for each manufacturer: from 7.8% for Tesla to 35.3% for SAIC. The decision comes at the end of an investigation that established that a dumping policy was being practised through subsidised financing to Chinese manufacturers, and despite both Beijing's offers (sales restrictions and price increases) and the fears expressed by German manufacturers, worried about future retaliation on European car exports.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 

Mozambique, on October 9, 17 million people will vote for parliament and  for the President of the Republic. More than 330,000 will vote from abroad. The candidates will not include the outgoing head of state, Filipe Nyusi, of the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo, in power since 1975), who has already served two terms. It will, instead, be a four-way race. The Frelimo has set its sights on a 47-year-old candidate, Daniel Chapo, a former radio and TV host and professor of constitutional law. Attracting much support, especially among young people, is independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane, 50, considered the rising star of Mozambican politics. 

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Sudan, fighting intensified in the Sudanese capital Khartoum on Sept. 26 after the army launched an offensive to take ground from the Rapid Support Forces (Rsf). Some parties and civil society groups have accused the Sudanese armed forces of carrying out summary executions of civilians suspected of collaborating with the Rsf. A new front has also opened in West Darfur, where the Rsf have clashed with militiamen from the army-allied Justice and Equality Movement Jem.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Ethiopia, army launches operations against Fano rebels in the Amhara region.

The Ethiopian army has launched a major military operation against Fano rebels, ignoring international calls for a peaceful resolution. Army spokesperson Colonel Getnet Adane stated that the only possible response is the use of force. Amnesty International has denounced mass arbitrary arrests, with hundreds of people detained without trial, in violation of national laws. The conflict in the Amhara region, which began more than a year ago, is worsening the humanitarian crisis. The World Food Programme has reported difficulties in humanitarian operations, with only 1.3 million people reached out of the more than 4.6 million in need of assistance.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Mauritius, general elections set for November 10. The President of Mauritius, Prithvirajsing Roopun, announced that the country will hold general elections on November 10. The Parliament will be dissolved immediately, and candidates must be nominated by October 22. This announcement follows the historic agreement with the United Kingdom for the return of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. However, Diego Garcia, though formally under Mauritian sovereignty, will remain under the control of the UK, which maintains a military base there shared with the United States. This has raised concerns in Washington about potential Chinese influence in the region.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Aurelia Puliafito, Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA 

USA, Vance and Walz: The Vice-Presidential Face-off. On October 1st, the debate between the two U.S. vice-presidential candidates took place, featuring Tim Walz for the Democratic Party and JD Vance for the Republicans. Surprisingly calm compared to the previous presidential debate, the discussion focused mainly on key issues in the U.S., such as climate change, immigration, abortion rights, and gun control. While their views remained deeply opposed, both candidates maintained a civil tone throughout the debate. However, both avoided answering CBS News' question regarding the Iran-Israel situation, sidestepping the issue of a potential "preemptive strike" against Iran.

(Caterina De Rosa)

Canada, humanitarian funds for Lebanon. Concerned by the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the Canadian Minister of International Development, Ahmed Hussen, announced that Canada is providing 10 million dollars in funding for humanitarian assistance, to provide food, water, emergency healthcare, protection services and other life-saving assistance. “With the funding announced today, Canada’s partners will be able to scale up their efforts to help people in urgent need” said Hussen speaking of the funds that, in addition to the 10 million dollars already allocated by the UN Central Emergency Response Fund, will protect the civilians while diplomacy attempts to reach a settlement.

USA, American support for Israel after Iran’s attack. Washington has again affirmed US support in defence for Israel after Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on the start of October, when US destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea destroyed several Iranian missiles. “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel” said Joe Biden, and even Kamala Harris declared: “I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist militias”. That being said, the American “full” support has apparently a limit: Biden specified that he would not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites, a comment that came after the Israeli UN representative warned that the retaliation for an Iranian attack would be heavier than ever imagined.

US, surprise from the labour market. Data on the U.S. labour market in September surprised analysts and investors, who were convinced of an economic slowdown and another rate cut by the Fed after the 50 basis point cut in September. Instead, the report shows a totally healthy labour market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 254,000, the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and hourly wages rising 4% year-on-year. This data allowed Wall Street to close on a positive note in a week up to that point punctuated by geopolitical concerns and the U.S. dockworkers' strike that had paralyzed the East and Gulf Coasts for 3 days, later suspended until next January 15.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

Lorenzo Graziani and Caterina De Rosa

LATIN AMERICA

Haiti, at least 70 people killed in a gang attack in the centre of the island. According to the UN Human Rights Office, around 3,000 people were forced to flee, with 70 men, women, and children killed in an indiscriminate shooting by the Gran Grif gang, which targeted civilians. Prime Minister Garry Conille condemned the attack, calling it an affront to the entire nation, and announced the deployment of additional security forces, supported by the Kenyan mission in Haiti. The island continues to be tragically plagued by violent struggles for territorial control, although in this case, the motive for the attack remains unclear, as the area was already under the control of the Gran Grif gang. The UN Human Rights Office reported that, so far, over 3,661 people have been killed this year in gang violence driven not by conquest but by terror.

Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum promises to work on energy transition. In her first days as Mexico's new president, Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to distance herself from the fossil fuel reliance promoted by her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and has promised to resume the energy transition that he had halted. Details are still scarce, but her speech marks a sharp departure from the energy policy of former President López Obrador, who, among other things, spent over $20 billion to build a new oil refinery and halted the auctions that had allowed developers to build solar and wind farms in the country. In a document presented during her election campaign, she reiterated the guidelines that will guide her mandate: policies aimed at food sovereignty, such as the ban on the import of genetically modified corn; the relocation of businesses; the sustainable increase of the minimum wage; the promotion of renewable energy; and the strengthening of the militarization of the country.

Alessia Boni 

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Pakistan, protests against the government. More than 80 police officers have been injured in clashes with supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan taking part in a march directed to Islamabad, according to Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi. The march, led by the chief minister of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, where Khan’s party holds power, aims to reach the capital defying a ban on public gatherings. The protesters demand Khan’s release and are agitating against the ruling coalition. To prevent the protest from escalating, authorities have sealed off Islamabad, blocked cellphone services, and deployed the army ahead of major diplomatic events, including a visit from India's Foreign Minister and a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting. While Naqvi has accused protesters of trying to disrupt these diplomatic events, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party insists their demonstrations are peaceful and denies any involvement in violence.

(Francesco Oppia)

Myanmar, dialogues in Indonesia. Indonesia is hosting an important international meeting involving the United Nations, ASEAN, the European Union, and Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG) to address the deepening crisis following the 2021 military coup in Myanmar. The country has been engulfed in violent conflict between the ruling military and pro-democracy forces, with the junta refusing to engage in any meaningful dialogue and labelling its opponents as terrorists. ASEAN's peace plan has failed to gain traction, prompting efforts to explore alternative mediation paths. Despite the junta’s call for elections in 2024, many opposition groups, including the NUG, have rejected the proposal, viewing it as a sham. However, Indonesian officials claimed that some positive signals emerged, particularly regarding potential developments of a future dialogue.

(Francesco Oppia)

Francesco Oppia, and Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Austria, success of the far-right in legislative elections. In the legislative elections on 29 September, the far-right Freedom Party (Fpö) won a relative majority with 28.8 % of the vote, a remarkable increase compared to the 2019 elections in which the party had suffered a major electoral defeat and had been embroiled in a corruption scandal. The Freedom Party (Fpö) won more votes than the polls predicted, stopping the current governing coalition of conservatives and environmentalists. Despite winning the elections, so far no party seems willing to be part of a coalition government with the Fpö, partly because of the extreme positions of Herbert Kickl, the party leader. This is the first time since 1945 that the extreme right has won elections in Austria.

(Bianca Franzini)

European Union, proposed postponement for regulations against deforestation. The European Commission, under pressure from various countries (including Germany, Austria, Finland, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden), has proposed postponing the entry into force of a regulation against deforestation in third countries. The measure, which is part of the Green Deal, will not be fully operational this year, but only by the end of 2025 for large companies and the end of 2026 for small companies. The rule will ban the import of products such as cocoa, coffee, palm oil and beef from deforested land and requires companies to ensure the traceability of products. The submitted proposal will now have to be approved by the Council and Parliament. According to the WWF, the EU is responsible for 16% of global deforestation through its imports.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, the Court of Justice fines Hungary. The ECJ, the body responsible for upholding European treaties, has ordered the Hungarian government under Viktor Orbán to pay a €200 million fine for violating EU asylum regulations. The sanction was imposed due to the treatment of migrants, who have been stranded since 2015 in transit zones established at the Serbian border. According to the Court, these conditions represent a serious and unprecedented breach of European Union law.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, Italy faces the Court of Justice over fixed-term contracts and job insecurity. Brussels has decided to bring Italy before the EU Court of Justice, accusing the country of failing to address issues related to the abuse of fixed-term contracts and discrimination in the labor market. The European Commission's main concern is the education sector, where Italy has not implemented adequate measures to prevent the repeated use of fixed-term contracts without ensuring proper salary progression for teachers.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena  

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

The Ukrainian military intelligence agency (Gur) claimed responsibility for the killing of Andrei Korotkiy. Korotkiy is the head of security at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, called  as "war criminal" and "collaborator" of the Russian regime from the spies. Through its Telegram channel, Gur released a video showing the explosion of a vehicle, reportedly a jeep. A few hours later, the Russian Investigative Committee confirmed Korotkiy's death in the city of Enerhodar, where the nuclear plant is located. Gur also stated that Korotkiy, a Ukrainian citizen, had "voluntarily collaborated" with Russia after it took control of the plant in the early stages of the war. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Korotkiy had provided Russian forces with personal data of the plant’s workers, identifying those with "pro-Ukrainian" positions.

Russian prosecutors have requested a sentence of nine years and one month in prison for Robert Gilman. The American citizen is accused of assaulting an investigator and a prison inspector while serving a three-and-a-half-year sentence for allegedly attacking a police officer while intoxicated. The trial is being held in the Voronezh court, with the verdict expected on October 7. The news was reported by Russian agencies Tass and Ria Novosti. According to Ria Novosti, Gilman allegedly pleaded guilty, explaining that he struck the inspector and the investigator after they had insulted his father and the inspector had caused him pain in his genitals during a search. Investigators, as reported by Ria Novosti, claim that Gilman punched the inspector in the head on two occasions, also hitting him in the face with his right fist. Additionally, he allegedly assaulted an investigator, causing a concussion. The charges against Gilman cannot be independently verified, and it is unclear if his confession was obtained through threats or undue pressure. In recent years, several American citizens have been arrested in Russia on charges seen as politically motivated or as leverage by the Kremlin to negotiate the release of Russian nationals detained in Western countries.

Federico Cortese

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel-Lebanon, the looming invasion: In recent weeks, the state of Israel has carried out an asymmetrical bombing and warfare campaign on an historic scale. In a short time, the Jewish state has annihilated the Shia terrorist group that dominates southern Lebanon. All of Hezbollah's senior leaders, including leader Hassan Nasrallah, have been eliminated in several raids and intelligence actions. The Israeli leadership seems intent on ending the game with the historical enemy and plans an invasion of the neighbouring Arab country. At the border between the two countries, the first skirmishes have already begun between the Israeli special forces and the militiamen of the Party of God, with high casualties on both sides. During the Israeli offensive, there have been more than a thousand civilian casualties. 

(Michele Magistretti) 

France: Macron ready to host an international conference for Lebanon. According to various media outlets, the French President has expressed his willingness to organise an international conference aimed at gathering humanitarian aid for Beirut. Following a meeting of Francophone countries, President Macron made the following statement: "In the coming weeks, we will hold a conference to provide humanitarian aid, support the international community, and help the Lebanese armed forces strengthen security, particularly in southern Lebanon." He also called for a halt to arms supplies used by Israel in Gaza, telling France Inter that the priority is to find a political solution. France’s main focus at the moment is to prevent an escalation and avoid "a regional war."

(Matteo Francescucci)

Matteo Francescucci and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

United Kingdom, agreement with Mauritius to cede Chagos Islands. After decades of territorial dispute over control of the Chagos archipelago, the latter part of the “British Indian Ocean Territory” since 1965, London and the island state of Mauritius have reached an agreement that should shortly restore the latter's sovereignty over the disputed archipelago. The Chagos are of considerable strategic value to the United Kingdom; in fact, the “Diego Garcia” atoll hosts a military base that London administers jointly with the United States. The same agreement reiterates that the military base will remain operational and, at least initially, will continue to be managed by the former “motherland.” 

Davide Shahhosseini 

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America 

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East 

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa 

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East 

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union