Framing The World, CXXXXI Edition

Framing The World, CXXXXI Edition

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Italy, since last 16 October surrogacy becomes a universal crime.

In Italy, surrogacy was already banned in 2004 by Article 12 of Law 40. Now with the approval of the new decree parents who will return to Italy, after resorting to the practice of "gestation for others", can be charged with risking from three months to two years in prison. Not to mention the penalty which in some cases could reach up to one million euros. The leader of the Lega Massimiliano Romeo has stated that this measure is intended to prevent the ban on surrogacy being circumvented abroad, so the child will not be recognized in Italy.

(Lisa Pasolini)

Niger, the antiterrorism decree targets political opponents. On October 10, 2024, General Abdourahamane Tiani, leader of the Niger junta, signed a decree temporarily stripping nine former officials linked to ousted President Mohamed Bazoum of their Nigerien nationality. Bazoum was removed from power in July 2023 and is currently unjustly detained. Among those affected are prominent figures like Rhissa Ag Boula, a former advisor to Bazoum, and General Mahamadou Abou Tarka. The decree accuses these individuals of "potentially destabilizing activities" and "conspiracy against the state." Concerns about the legitimacy of such actions have been raised by Human Rights Watch, which highlights that the database of suspected terrorists violates international human rights standards, depriving individuals of due process and increasing the risk of statelessness.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena, Lisa Pasolini

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

China, GDP slows down. Third quarter chinese GDP came in at 4.6% according to official data, slightly lower than in the previous quarter (4.7%), the lowest in 18 months and below the government’s full-year target of 5%. Both industrial production (+5.4%) and retail sales (+3.2%) resulted higher than forecasted, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.1%, but the real estate market continued to drag on the larger economy, with new home prices falling for the 16th straight month. The data was published as the Chinese central bank offered more details on the stimulus measures preannounced by the Politburo in the last weeks and as such did not weigh on the stock market, which instead turned around a negative session, closing up 3.6% (CSI 300 index).

France, higher taxes. The French government unveiled a €60.6 billion budget for next year with the aim to remedy its troubled public finances, narrow the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2025 and rebuild investor confidence. The plan encompasses a variety of new taxes including temporary levies on the 440 profitable companies with annual revenue of more than €1 billion that would generate €8 billion next year and €4 billion in 2026 (a reversal of Macron's corporate tax cut from 33.3% to 25%), an exceptional tax on maritime transport companies worth €500 million and €300 million, respectively, and increased taxes on plane tickets and a tax on private-jet usage. However, Prime Minister Barnier risks opposition from the very lawmakers backing his government, for some centrists politicians have already said they would not favor measures undoing Macron’s pro-business policies which they say are crucial to supporting jobs and growth.

Big tech, going nuclear. Three of the biggest technology companies have recently announced plans to power their data centers, and those enabling AI in particular, with nuclear energy. Google announced last week a deal with Kairos Power to back the construction of seven small reactors, 500 MW in total, with the first to be operational by 2030 and all seven before 2035. A few days earlier Amazon reached a deal with Dominion Energy and Energy Northwest to develop small modular reactors in Washington state and Virginia to power AWS's operation and civilian communities, while Microsoft announced in September its partnership with Constellation Energy to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant to provide electricity for its data centers under a 20-year deal.

US, the effects of the hurricane. Applications for unemployment benefits rose in the week ended on October 5 by 33,000 to 258,000, the highest since August 2023, and above all economists' forecasts. The data is conditioned by large increases in Michigan due to labor strikes, as well as states affected by Hurricane Helene (but not by Hurricane Milton, which will be included in later data). All Southeastern states affected by Helene saw jumps in applications, including Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee. For the next several releases, the unemployment claims are likely to be volatile and thus complicate efforts by the Federal Reserve to accurately gauge underlying developments in the US labor market and take the next rate interest rate decision on October 31st - November 1st, the last before the presidential election.

US, the latest on inflation. Progress in the fight against inflation took a pause in September, with the core consumer price index — which excludes food and energy costs — rising 0.3% monthly (+0.2% expected) - and the three-month annualized rate growing 3.1%, the most since May. CPI rose instead 0.2% on higher food and housing prices, and service prices excluding housing and energy grew 0.4%, the most since April and the third straight month of acceleration. Producer price indexes were, instead, more reassuring with the core PPI rising 0.2% monthly, down from the 0.3% of August, and +1.8% yearly (from 1.9%), although the core PPI index came in up 2.8% (2.6% in August). Despite the uncertain path, investors still believe that the Fed will keep cutting interest rates in the two remaining meetings of this year.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

South Africa, Rand Water, the water company that supplies water to Johannesburg, Pretoria and the entire Gauteng province, warned on 14 October of an impending water crisis. A heat wave is expected in this part of the country and reservoir levels are already very low. The entire water network is collapsing, and it is estimated that 44 per cent of water is wasted between leaks and theft. The situation is also serious in neighbouring Zimbabwe: in Bulawayo, the country's second city, water is not supplied for 130 hours a week, after the closure of six reservoirs that had reached a critical point.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Nigeria, More than 150 people died in the explosion of a tanker truck involved in a road accident in the northern state of Jigawa. Many of the victims were trying to recover fuel that had spilled onto the road after the tanker truck overturned on the evening of 15 October.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Aurelia Puliafito, Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

Canada, sparks between Canada and India. After Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh Canadian citizen, was shot dead in Canada last June and the Canadian government accused the Indian government of being behind the attack, the diplomatic ties between the two countries have been put under pressure and the crisis is yet to be settled. On Wednesday, 16th of October, Justin Trudeau, Canada's Prime Minister, accused India of making a “horrific mistake” in violating Canada sovereignty: “The Indian government made a horrific mistake in thinking that they could interfere as aggressively as they did in the safety and sovereignty of Canada” stated Trudeau, as he decided to expel six Indian senior diplomats. “Canada has presented us no evidence whatsoever in support of the serious allegations that it has chosen to level against India” declared the Indian government, which in response expelled six Canadian top diplomats itself.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

Operation Aurora I: Trump's New Deportation Plan. On October 12, during a rally in Aurora, Colorado, Donald Trump introduced his latest immigration policy, titled "Operation Aurora." The plan involves the mass deportation of all undocumented migrants currently living in the United States, with a particular focus on gang members and criminals. One of its more controversial elements is the inclusion of the death penalty for migrants convicted of killing U.S. citizens or law enforcement officers. Trump's plan is rooted in the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which grants the president the authority to detain or deport nationals from hostile countries during times of war, if they are deemed a threat.

Operation Aurora II: Kamala Harris' Response. Kamala Harris swiftly denounced Trump's proposal, accusing him of stoking fear and reigniting the divisive policies from his previous administration. The Democratic vice president argued that Trump’s rhetoric unjustly demonises immigrants and distorts the reality of the situation for political gain. Harris emphasised that mass deportation doesn’t solve the underlying causes of migration, but rather exacerbates social divisions and incites unwarranted fear. She also defended the immigrant community in Aurora, highlighting their positive contributions and calling out Trump’s claims about immigrant-related crime as exaggerated and largely unfounded.

(Caterina De Rosa)

LATIN AMERICA

Colombia, attempted coup d'état. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has raised concerns on social media about a possible attempt to overthrow his administration. His statement follows the announcement by the National Electoral Council (CNE) on October 8, which launched an investigation into alleged irregularities in the financing of his 2022 election campaign, suggesting it may have exceeded spending limits. In the past thirty years, no Colombian president has been removed from office, and Petro has called for popular mobilization in response.

Brasil, the European Commission postpones the Regulation against deforestation. On October 2, under pressure from countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Germany, the European Commission proposed delaying the implementation of the anti-deforestation regulation by one year. Initially set to come into effect at the end of 2024, the regulation would now be pushed to 2025, sparking criticism from environmental organizations. The regulation aims to block the import of products like cocoa, coffee, soy, palm oil, timber, beef, rubber, and paper into the European Union if they come from areas deforested after December 2020.

Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, record military drills around Taiwan. China held large-scale military drills in the waters and skies surrounding Taiwan, a show of force that signalled the growing threat of Beijing’s ability to choke the self-governing island that China claims as its own. Chinese naval and air exercises near Taiwan have become routine but this time they were unusual for their scale. Taiwan indeed said that China had flown 125 aircraft, a record, toward the island and Taiwanese authorities also tracked 17 Chinese naval vessels and 17 coast guard ships. Beijing said the drills were a warning to Taiwan’s government after the island’s president, Lai Ching-te, made a speech regarded as a message promoting independence. Indeed, Lai said that China and Taiwan were “not subordinate to each other” and that Beijing had “no right to represent Taiwan”. Still, Mr. Lai said he was committed to upholding peace and that he was willing to work with China on global challenges.

(Francesco Oppia)

North Korea, increased support to Russia in Ukraine. South Korean intelligence reports indicate that North Korea has deployed 12,000 troops, including special operations forces, to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. This development, if confirmed, could escalate the conflict by involving a third country, further intensifying the standoff between North Korea and the West. Despite having one of the largest standing armies in the world, with 1.2 million troops, North Korea's military lacks substantial combat experience. Experts speculate that North Korea likely secured Russian promises of security support in exchange, particularly in light of its ongoing tensions with the United States and South Korea over its nuclear program. In a meeting held in Pyongyang in June, Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin signed the most significant defence pact between the two nations since the end of the Cold War.

(Francesco Oppia)

Pakistan, seven terrorists arrested in province-wide operation. The Punjab Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) on Saturday, 19 October, announced that it had foiled a major terrorist plot - arresting seven suspects affiliated with militant organisations - including Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan. The arrests occurred during 129 intelligence-based operations (IBOs) conducted in several districts of the province such as: Lahore, Bhakkar, Attock, Wahari, Bahawalpur and Jhang. Explosives and hazardous materials were recovered during the operations. The CTD spokesman said that the terrorists had planned attacks against strategic installations and other major targets in the province. Investigations against the suspects are still ongoing. In addition, the CTD conducted intensive security activity last week, carrying out 2,943 raids in which over 68,000 people were checked, 257 suspects were arrested and 250 cases were registered.

(Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi)

Francesco Oppia, Leonardo Di Girolamo and Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU leaders call for a new return directive. The leaders of eleven member states and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met before the start of the Summit of the 27 to discuss return and a new security approach that is gaining momentum in Brussels and Europe. The European Commission was asked to urgently present a new return directive: as the summit conclusions state, ‘the European Council calls for determined action at all levels to facilitate, increase and accelerate returns from the European Union, using all relevant EU policies, instruments and means’. At the heart of the plan are ‘return hubs’, repatriation centres located in third countries, such as Albania and Uganda. The summit highlighted divergences among states, with some in favour of extra-EU models, while others, such as Germany and Spain, support the European Pact on Migration and criticise external solutions.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, first bilateral summit with the Gulf countries On 16 October, the first summit between the leaders of the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: United Arab Emirates, Kingdom of Bahrain, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Sultanate of Oman, State of Qatar and State of Kuwait) was held in Brussels under the theme ‘Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’. The summit was co-chaired by the President of the European Council Charles Michel and the Emir of Qatar, His Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, President-in-Office of the GCC. The meeting aims to improve cooperation on regional issues, including the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. While disagreeing on Russia and Iran, the EU and the Gulf countries said they shared the goal of stabilising the region and promoting economic growth. During the summit, the leaders agreed to meet every two years. The next EU-GCC summit will be held in Saudi Arabia in 2026.

(Bianca Franzini)

Italy, migrants transferred to Albania must return: detention deemed illegal by the Rome Court. The twelve migrants, originally from Egypt and Bangladesh, confined in the detention center of Giader in Albania, must be returned to Italy. This was established by the Rome Court, which deemed their detention illegal under European and Italian regulations, despite the rejection of their asylum requests. The migrants were rescued on October 13 by the Guardia di Finanza and subsequently transferred to Albania. The decision is based on a ruling from the European Court of Justice on October 4, which states that Egypt and Bangladesh cannot be considered "safe countries," making their repatriation illegal.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

On Sunday, Moldovan citizens will head to the polls for a double electoral event. The presidential elections and a long-awaited referendum on joining the European Union. The outcome of the referendum will determine whether EU membership becomes a constitutional goal. Twelve parties support the "Yes" option, while two oppose it. A win for the "Yes" would lead to a constitutional amendment. However, a positive outcome could further strain relations between the pro-Western government and the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria, where approximately 2,000 Russian troops are still stationed. Moldova has also accused Russia of meddling in the upcoming referendum, claiming that Moscow has funneled money to turn public opinion against the vote. Incumbent President Maia Sandu, running for re-election, is a strong advocate for EU integration. Many view her 2020 election victory as a turning point for democracy in the country.

(Federico Cortese)

Russia and Ukraine, with the mediation of the United Arab Emirates, have organized a new prisoner exchange: 103 detainees on each side. Several soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces during the ongoing counteroffensive in the Kursk region have been released. Regarding Ukraine’s military operation on Russian territory, where Kyiv claims to have successfully breached enemy defense lines, Moscow has escalated its threats. "No one truly wants a nuclear conflict, but patience has its limits," warned Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian Security Council's deputy chairman. His comments referred to Ukraine’s request to use Western-supplied missiles on Russian soil. U.S. President Joe Biden discussed the issue during a meeting at the White House with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Both leaders reaffirmed their "unwavering support" for Kyiv, but so far, no final decision has been made on allowing the use of U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory.

Federico Cortese

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Arms exports to Israel: Spain and France call for a halt after the attack on UNIFIL contingents. The leaders of Italy, France, and Spain have strongly condemned the Israeli attacks on UNIFIL bases in a joint statement, describing them as "unjustifiable." During the same announcement, they urged an immediate ceasefire to prevent further escalation of the conflict. Following this, President Macron called for a halt to arms exports used by the Israeli military in Gaza, a stance also supported by Pedro Sanchez. Giorgia Meloni, while calling the incident "unacceptable," did not join in this demand. Despite the international appeal, Israel launched another strike on the entrance to the UNIFIL base in Naqura and a watchtower further north, injuring two soldiers from the Sri Lankan contingent.

(Matteo Francescucci)

Yahya Sinwar’s killing and the Iranian drone strike on Netanyahu’s residence The IDF has confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, who had led Hamas since 2017. A video released by the army, captured by a drone, shows Sinwar in distress, with an injured arm, his face covered, and holding a stick, which he throws before being taken down by Israeli forces. Following the operation, both Biden and Macron reached out to Prime Minister Netanyahu to congratulate him on its success. However, on Saturday, October 19, a spokesperson for Netanyahu revealed that an Iranian drone had targeted his private residence in Caesarea. According to early reports, the house was empty at the time, suggesting the attack may have been a response to the killing of the Hamas leader.

(Matteo Francescucci)

Turkey, the mirage of new evolutions on the Kurdish issue. At the beginning of October, images of the leader of the extreme right-wing nationalist party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, greeting Kurdish Dem party members in parliament created a stir. The MHP leader is the ally on which the government of the Islamist leader Erdoğan rests. In the meantime, PKK terrorist group leader Abdullah Ocalan was allowed to speak with his leaders via telephone. Many analysts wonder whether this move is not in fact a classic Machiavellian tactic of the Turkish president to obtain an exchange of favours and perhaps seek the support of the Kurdish party in order to change the constitution in his favour.

(Michele Magistretti)

Matteo Francescucci and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Yemen, US bombings against Houthi weapons depots. According to the Centcom - the Armed Forces Central Command for Operations in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia - last Wednesday night, the US Air Force carried out a series of attacks against underground Houthi bases. For the first time, the US resorted to stealth technology, employing B-2 Spirit long-range bombers, whose operational peculiarity is that they cannot be detected by radar.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

North Korea, for the first time South Korea is designated a ‘hostile state’. The North Korean parliament approved an amendment to the constitution designating South Korea as a ‘hostile state’. This is the first time since the 1953 armistice that Pyongyang has apostrophised its neighbours as enemies of national security. All this adds to tensions on the peninsula, the same tensions that have already escalated in recent weeks after North Korea demolished large sections of roads connecting the latter with the south. Pyongyang justified the demolition operation as a form of defence against a possible invasion by Seoul.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Germany, libyan citizen arrested for allegedly planning an attack against the Israeli embassy. Germany has arrested a Libyan citizen suspected of planning an attack on Israel's embassy in Berlin, the federal prosecutor's office said Sunday. The man, identified as Omar A., is strongly suspected of supporting ISIS and planning an attack with firearms. The German government faces pressure to enhance security and address migration issues after a series of violent attacks linked to asylum-seekers. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced border checks and faster deportations. European leaders also discussed migration at the European Council, with many backing deportation centers and tougher laws to return migrants to countries like Afghanistan and Syria.

(Gonzalo Pereyra)

United States, sanctions against chinese drone-producing companies were imposed. The US has imposed its first-ever sanctions on Chinese companies accused of developing complete weapons systems with Russian firms for use in Ukraine. The sanctions target drone production deployed by Russia in the conflict. Chinese firms Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co and Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen Co were sanctioned. Zelenskyy urged for an immediate invitation to NATO membership for Ukraine. Norway and other European nations pledged military aid, while demining Ukraine is projected to cost $37 billion. Over 40 countries have committed to help clear Ukraine of landmines and explosives, covering nearly a quarter of its territory.

(Gonzalo Pereyra)

Davide Shahhosseini and Gonzalo Pereyra

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union